We’re coming off of a loss via the SPF Predictor. We took the unders on Luka Doncic and Stephen Curry on Friday, and both players found plenty of scoring success in that game. We’re utilizing the SPF Predictor once again, specifically for one of these two plays, although we’re shifting to MLB. Once again, we’re going with Monkey Knife Fight, and below is a top bet for the Oakland A’s vs Seattle Mariners game.
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Prop Pick – Oakland A’s vs Seattle Mariners
Zach Logue under 4.5 strikeouts
The SPF Predictor doesn’t lean heavily toward one side or the other for Logue, but it does prefer the under to the over. I feel the same way about the southpaw.
Logue’s thrown well early this season, posting a 2-2 record with a 2.04 ERA through 4 games (3 starts). With that being said, he’s due for regression, as his xFIP sits at 4.71 this season. He’s also never found success above the Double-A level.
The most important aspect of this play is Logue’s strikeout stuff. He owns a 7.1 K/9 through 17.2 innings. He also posted 18.9% strikeout and 9.8% swinging-strike rates this season. Logue also owns one of the lowest CSW rates on this slate.
The biggest concern for the under is the matchup. The Seattle Mariners are striking out at the fourth-highest rate (25.9%) in the MLB over the last 14 days. They also strike out at the 11th-highest rate (23%) in the MLB against left-handed pitching. That number dips a bit at home, though.
Between Logue struggling with strikeouts and being due for regression, he’s a great bet for the under in this game. Logue also owns -165 odds on under 4.5 on DraftKings today.
Marco Gonzales over 3.5 strikeouts
Gonzales owns the biggest difference for our SPF Predictor tonight. He’s been a mixed bag of strikeouts throughout the season thus far. He’s posted 4+ strikeouts in 3 of his 8 starts this season, although a pair of those starts lasted two or fewer innings.
Gonzales isn’t a dominant strikeout option, but he gets a great matchup tonight. The Oakland A’s haven’t been striking out at that high of a rate over the last 14 days. With that being said, Oakland’s striking out 27% of the time on the road against left-handed pitching.
They’re an offense that has consistently struggled, and Gonzales should be able to throw deep into this game. If he gets 6+ innings, he’ll see more than enough opportunities to record strikeouts.
Similar to Logue, we have the odds on our side. Gonzales currently owns -160 odds on DraftKings to record more than 3.5 strikeouts.
Bet Zach Logue “less than” 4.5 strikeouts and Marco Gonzales “more than” 3.5 strikeouts to 3x your buy-in
