We’re firing on all cylinders at this point in this article. We swapped sites and sports last night, but we still hit our NBA PrizePicks play. Andrew Wiggins cleared his rebound total, while Robert Williams hit his points over. It was a relatively easy win, as it cashed with several minutes left in the fourth quarter. We’re shifting back over to Monkey Knife Fight with an MLB play for tonight. Below, you’ll find my favorite bet for the Oakland A’s vs Cleveland Guardians game.
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Prop Pick – Oakland A’s vs Cleveland Guardians
Konnor Pilkington over 5.5 strikeouts
Pilkington is a strikeout machine. He owns a 12.2 K/9 through 17 innings this season. His 29.1% strikeout rate is backed by a 15.3% swinging-strike rate. As is the case with many young pitchers, Pilkington’s biggest struggles come with control.
The key to Pilkington is his matchup, though. He’ll face off against the Oakland A’s, who feature one of the worst offenses in the MLB. They’ve struggled with strikeouts throughout the entire season, and they strike out at the ninth-highest rate (23.5%) in the MLB against left-handed pitching.
Furthermore, Oakland’s struggled to find consistent offense against lefties throughout the season. They utilize nearly all right-handed batters, and Pilkington owns a 31.3% strikeout rate against right-handed batters this season.
He’s coming off of an 8 strikeout game over 5 innings, and he should throw 90+ pitches once again tonight. This is too good of a matchup to pass up.
James Kaprielian under 3.5 strikeouts
Kaprielian isn’t a strikeout pitcher by any stretch of the imagination. He’s posted a 6.1 K/9 through 32.2 innings this season. He also owns 15.6% strikeout and 9.5% swinging-strike rates in 2022.
He’s recorded 4+ strikeouts in only 2 of his 7 starts this season. He gets a tough matchup against the Cleveland Guardians tonight as well. Cleveland strikes out at the lowest rate in the MLB against right-handed pitching.
It’s important to note that Kaprielian started a game against Cleveland earlier this season, recording 2 strikeouts over 2 innings. He only threw 57 pitches in that game, though.
I’m expecting him to throw more in this matchup, but I don’t anticipate it mattering. The Guardians simply don’t strike out against right-handed pitching, and Kaprielian isn’t a pitcher that can force those strikeouts.
There are -155 odds on the under on DraftKings Sportsbook tonight.
Bet Konnor Pilkington “more than” 5.5 strikeouts and James Kaprielian “less than” 3.5 strikeouts to 3x your buy-in
