Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!

 

Vegas Overview – Below is an excerpt from our sister site, Bet Karma. It has daily player props, live trends (below), and much more! Access all odds, trends, and line movement for all sports here: BetKarma Live MLB Trends

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Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Zack Wheeler

At the top of pitcher, you’re deciding between Wheeler and Brandon Woodruff. The former’s been an elite option, posting a 3.01 ERA with a 2.91 xFIP and a 28.6% strikeout rate through 27 starts. Wheeler gets an interesting matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers, who’ve been struggling with a .303 team wOBA and a 22.6% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. Although Wheeler’s been struggling a bit in recent starts, he still comes with elite upside. He’s a +117 underdog in a game set at 7.5 runs, but he’s my favorite option because of his matchup.

Sonny Gray

Gray’s seen mixed results throughout the 2021 season, but he enters this game with a 3.89 ERA, 3.61 xFIP, and 27.4% strikeout rate through 21 starts. He’s quietly posted 25.9 and 28 DK points in 2 of his last 3 starts. Gray gets a matchup against the Chicago Cubs, who boast a .356 team wOBA over the last 14 days. With that being said, they also own a 27.8% strikeout rate over that span. Gray’s a -153 favorite, although the game total hasn’t been set. The wind is blowing in today, making him an outstanding option in all leagues.

Other GPP Targets: Chris Sale, Tarik Skubal, Justin Steele

Top DraftKings Batters

MLB Top Batters

Top FanDuel Batters

FD MLB Top Batters

 

Batters

C

Sal Perez

If you can get to Perez at catcher, he’s the best option on this slate. He’s hitting for a .333 average with a .872 slugging percentage and a 1.281 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 7 home runs with 20 RBIs over that span. Perez gets an elite matchup against Zac Lowther, and he enters this game with a .431 wOBA and a .368 ISO against left-handed pitching. He’s hitting third in the Kansas City Royals lineup, and he’s an elite option in all leagues. Pedro Severino is “Sal Perez-lite” tonight.

1B

Ryan Mountcastle 

Mountcastle’s currently day-to-day, but he’s an elite option if he’s in the starting lineup. He’s posted a .282 average with a .487 slugging percentage and a .870 OPS over his last 10 games. In those contests, he’s recorded 4 extra-base hist (2 home runs) and 8 RBIs. Mountcastle gets a great matchup against Kris Bubic, and he brings a .359 wOBA and a .247 ISO against left-handed pitching into this game. He’s expected to hit second in the Baltimore Oriole’s lineup tonight. He’s an elite option if he’s starting, and Trey Mancini can also be used here.

2B

Jonathan Villar

It’s tough to go away from Villar at this point. He’s one of the hottest hitters in the MLB, posting a .447 average with a .842 slugging percentage and a 1.342 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 8 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 6 RBIs, and 1 stolen base in those contests. Villar gets a great matchup against Patrick Corbin, who continues to struggle in 2021. He’s leading off for the New York Mets, and his price tag doesn’t represent his recent form. Villar makes an elite option in all leagues on this slate.

3B

Jeimer Candelario

Candelario’s found plenty of success in recent games, as he’s hitting for a .359 average with a .692 slugging percentage and a 1.097 OPS over his last 10 contests. He’s recorded 8 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 8 RBIs over that span. Candelario gets an elite matchup against Bryse Wilson and a struggling Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen. He’s expected to hit fifth in the Detroit Tigers offense, and he can be used in all leagues tonight.

Editor’s Note: Remember, you can sign up for all of our Core Plays here, or join our free Discord here.

SS

Ramon Urias

Urias is another Baltimore Orioles player that is day-to-day on this slate. He’s been playing well, though, recording a .303 average with 2 extra-base hits and 4 RBIs over his last 10 games. He also gets a great matchup against Kris Bubic, and Urias boasts a .064 ISO differential against left-handed pitching this season. He’s expected to hit fifth in the Baltimore lineup, and he’s an outstanding salary relief option on this slate.

OF

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles are in a great spot against Kris Bubic this season. Even with the lefty/lefty matchup, Cedric Mullins makes the best option on the team. He’s been playing well, and he’s expected to lead off. Austin Hays has also been on fire, and he’s an elite option, as well. He’s performed well against left-handed pitching, and he’s expected to hit third in the Baltimore lineup. Anthony Santander hasn’t been playing as well, but he can also be considered on this slate.

Akil Baddoo

Baddoo’s been struggling a bit in recent games, posting a .200 average with a .429 slugging percentage and a .711 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 4 RBIs over that span. Most importantly, Baddoo gets an elite matchup against Bryse Wilson, and he owns .132 wOBA and .213 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching this season. He’ll lead off for the Detroit Tigers, and he’s far too cheap on this slate.

Edward Olivares

Olivares hasn’t been overly successful over his last 10 games, recording a .174 average with 2 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 5 RBIs. He gets an elite matchup against Zac Lowther and a bad Baltimore Orioles bullpen. Olivares is expected to hit fourth in the Kansas City Royals lineup, and he’s cheap enough to be considered in all leagues on this slate.

 

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams

“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)

“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DraftKings Team Stacks

DK MLB Stacks

FanDuel Team Stacks

FD MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

We have a smaller seven-game Labor Day slate today. That limits our options, although there are still plenty of great stacks. Below are my favorite three stacks for this slate.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

BAL – Mullins/Mountcastle/Hays/Urias/Santander

KC – Merrifield/Perez/Olivares/Santana/Mondesi

DET – Baddoo/Schoop/Grossman/Cabrera/Candelario

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

BAL – Mullins/Mountcastle/Hays

KC – Merrifield/Perez/Olivares

NYM – Villar/Alonso/Baez

 

Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)