MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (9/30/21) - DFS Karma
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MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (9/30/21)

Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!

 

Vegas Overview – Below is an excerpt from our sister site, Bet Karma. It has daily player props, live trends (below), and much more! Access all odds, trends, and line movement for all sports here: BetKarma Live MLB Trends

Projections will be updated throughout the day. You can stay up to date on all of our latest projections by utilizing our FREE projections portal at DFS Karma.

NOTE: Tables are embedded in the breakdown and update LIVE. The various tables will update with starting lineups confirmation, when projections are edited in the projections portal(s), and every hour. If a table is showing an error message or is blank, please wait a moment and refresh the page and it should re-populate correctly. Thanks!

Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Robbie Ray

Ray’s looked elite throughout the 2021 season. As you can see on my Pitchers Chart below, he owns a 2.68 ERA with a 3.24 xFIP and a 32.5% strikeout rate through 188 innings. He’s flashed elite upside recently, as well, scoring 41.4 DK points against the Tampa Bay Rays only 3 starts ago. Ray gets a tough matchup against the New York Yankees, who’ve recorded a .350 team wOBA with a 23% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. With that being said, Ray’s trying to cap off a potential Cy Young award-winning season, and he’s a -137 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs. Although his Vegas line isn’t elite, he’s a great option on this slate.

Rich Hill

As much as I hate this play, it’s impossible not to mention him. Through 153.2 innings, Hill’s posted a 3.87 ERA with a 4.66 xFIP and a 22.6% strikeout rate. He’s posted 15+ DK points in 5 of his last 6 starts, including a 23.9 DK point performance against this Miami Marlins team. Hill gets a matchup against them again tonight, and they’ve recorded a .263 team wOBA with a 26.3% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. Although he isn’t a great pitcher, Hill’s a -185 favorite in a game set at only 7.5 runs. He’s an outstanding salary relief option on this slate. 

Other GPP Targets: Joe Ryan, Lance McCullers, Nick Pivetta, Tarik Skubal, Scott Kazmir

 

Top DraftKings Batters

MLB Top Batters

Top FanDuel Batters

FD MLB Top Batters

 

Batters

C

Buster Posey

Posey’s been playing well for the San Francisco Giants, posting a .333 average with a .455 slugging percentage and a .865 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he boasts 4 extra-base hits and 4 RBIs. Posey’s found plenty of success against left-handed pitching, and he gets a great matchup against former teammate Madison Bumgarner. He’s been a dominant option at home in 2021, and he’s expected to hit third in the San Francisco lineup. If you can’t spend up for Posey, Christian Vazquez and Roberto Perez are great options for significantly lower price tags.

1B

Max Muncy

Muncy’s been cold over his last 10 games, posting a .182 average with a .394 slugging percentage and a .702 OPS over that span. He recorded 3 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 6 RBIs in those games. Muncy’s averaging 10 DK points per game in Los Angeles this season, and he gets a great matchup against Vince Velasquez tonight. He’s expected to hit fourth in one of the best offenses on the slate, and Muncy can be used in all leagues on this slate. Bobby Dalbec is an outstanding option if you need to save a bit of salary at first base.

2B

Trea Turner

You can use any second baseman priced at $4.9k or higher on this slate, but Turner sticks out above the rest. He’s been playing at an elite level, posting a .409 average with a .682 slugging percentage and a 1.129 OPS over his last 10 games. In those contests, he boasts 6 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 6 RBIs, and 3 stolen bases. Turner gets a great matchup against Vince Velasquez, and he’s hitting third in the Los Angeles Dodgers offense. Turner is an elite option in all leagues tonight.

3B

Rafael Devers

Devers continues to find success, as he’s hitting for a .341 average with a .488 slugging percentage and a .860 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he posted 4 extra-base hits (1 home run), 5 RBIs, and 1 stolen base. Devers is significantly better against right-handed pitching, but he gets a great matchup against Alexander Wells tonight. He’ll also benefit from facing off against the Baltimore Orioles bullpen. Josh Donaldson, Evan Longoria, and Wilmer Flores can all be considered here, as well.

Editor’s Note: Remember, you can sign up for all of our Core Plays here, or join our free Discord here.

SS

Corey Seager

You’re likely debating between Seager and Xander Bogaerts at this position with the former making a slightly better option at the moment. Seager boasts a .341 average with a .732 slugging percentage and a 1.169 OPS over his last 10 games. He possesses 7 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 10 RBIs in those contests. Seager gets a great matchup against Vince Velasquez, and he’s looked great against right-handed pitching. He’s hitting second in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, and Seager can be used in all leagues tonight.

OF

Boston Red Sox 

Once again we have a dominant Boston offense against a weak left-handed pitcher for Baltimore and a bad Orioles bullpen. Hunter Renfroe, Kike Hernandez, and JD Martinez continue to make the best options for the Red Sox. Kyle Schwarber or Alex Verdugo, depending on who’s starting, can be considered on this slate.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Unsurprisingly, the Dodgers outfield makes an elite option on this slate. Mookie Betts is the top option, as he’s the only outfielder hitting near the top of the order. Chris Taylor and AJ Pollock are expected to hit later in the Los Angeles offense, and they make interesting options because they’ll likely feature lower ownership than the rest of the stack.

 

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DraftKings Team Stacks

DK MLB Stacks

FanDuel Team Stacks

FD MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

There are nine games tonight with a few great stacking options. Below are my five favorites for tonight.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

LAD – Betts/Seager/Turner/Muncy/Smith

BOS – Hernandez/Renfroe/Devers/Bogaerts/Martinez

SF – Slater/Bryant/Posey/Longoria/Flores

HOU – Altuve/Bregman/Alvarez/Gurriel/Correa

NYM – Nimmo/Lindor/Conforto/Alonso/Baez

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

LAD – Seager/Turner/Muncy

BOS – Renfroe/Devers/Bogaerts

SF – Bryant/Posey/Flores

HOU – Altuve/Bregman/Alvarez

NYM – Lindor/Conforto/Alonso

 

Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)

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