MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (9/29/21) - DFS Karma
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MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (9/29/21)

Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!

 

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Projections will be updated throughout the day. You can stay up to date on all of our latest projections by utilizing our FREE projections portal at DFS Karma.

NOTE: Tables are embedded in the breakdown and update LIVE. The various tables will update with starting lineups confirmation, when projections are edited in the projections portal(s), and every hour. If a table is showing an error message or is blank, please wait a moment and refresh the page and it should re-populate correctly. Thanks!

Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Max Scherzer

Scherzer’s been one of the best pitchers in the MLB throughout the 2021 season. Through 174 innings, he boasts a 2.28 ERA with a 3.18 xFIP and a 34.8% strikeout rate. He’s posted 30+ DK points in 5 of his last 6 games, including a 44.4 DK point performance. Scherzer gets an interesting matchup against the San Diego Padres, who own a .334 team wOBA with a 17.1% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. With that being said, Scherzer’s posted 39.4 and 38.9 DK points in recent starts against them. He’s a -295 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, and he’s the SP1 on this slate.

Alex Wood

Wood’s one of the more mispriced players on this slate. As you can see on my Pitchers Chart below, he owns a 4.00 ERA with a 3.50 xFIP and a 25.9% strikeout rate through 132.2 innings. He’s been struggling a bit recently, but he’s been a better pitcher at home this season. Wood gets a matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who’ve posted a .286 team wOBA with a 24.3% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. He’s a -248 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, and Wood is an outstanding option under $8k tonight. 

Taijuan Walker

Walker’s taken a massive step back in recent games, but he’s still a great value on this slate. Through 151.2 innings this season, he’s recorded a 4.57 ERA with a 4.47 xFIP and a 22.4% strikeout rate. He’s averaging 16.6 DK points per game in home starts in 2021. Most importantly, Walker gets a matchup against the Miami Marlins, who’ve posted a .281 team wOBA with a 26.2% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. He’s a -168 favorite in a game set at 7.5 runs, and Walker’s entirely too cheap on this slate. He’s an outstanding SP2 option.

Other GPP Targets: Carlos Rodon, Gerrit Cole, Frankie Montas, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Pineda, Casey Mize, Max Fried

 

Top DraftKings Batters

MLB Top Batters

Top FanDuel Batters

FD MLB Top Batters

 

Batters

C

Will Smith

Smith’s cooled off quite a bit recently, posting a .1.94 average with a .452 slugging percentage and a .734 OPS over his last 10 games. He does possess 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 5 RBIs in those contests. More importantly, Smith gets a great matchup against Ryan Weathers tonight. He’s been better against right-handed pitching this season, although he’s found plenty of success against lefties throughout his career. Smith’s expected to hit fifth in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, and he’s an elite option if you can get to his price tag.

Roberto Perez

Perez is an outstanding punt option at catcher tonight. He’s hitting for a .194 average with 2 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 2 RBIs over his last 10 games. Perez gets a great matchup against Daniel Lynch, who’s struggled throughout the season. He boasts .091 wOBA and .099 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching this season. Perez is only expected to hit eighth in the Cleveland lineup, but he can be used as a punt in all leagues tonight.

1B

Bobby Dalbec

Dalbec is finally hitting higher in the Boston Red Sox lineup, and he’s entirely too cheap tonight. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting for a .241 average with a .552 slugging percentage and a .905 OPS. He boasts 5 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 5 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over that span. Dalbec gets an elite matchup against Zac Lowther, and he boasts a .365 wOBA and a .263 ISO against left-handed pitching in 2021. He’s expected to hit sixth in the Boston lineup, and he’s an elite salary relief option. If you can spend up at this position, Max Muncy is an outstanding option.

2B

Trea Turner

Turner’s been playing at an elite level for the Los Angeles Dodgers, recording a .419 average with a .698 slugging percentage and a 1.154 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns 6 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 5 RBIs, and 3 stolen bases. Turner gets a great matchup against Ryan Weathers, and he’s one of the hottest hitters in the MLB over his last few games. He’s expected to hit third in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, and Turner’s an elite option in all leagues on this slate.

Tommy La Stella 

If you need to save a bit of salary here, La Stella is an outstanding option. He’s hitting for a .273 average with a .515 slugging percentage and a .867 OPS over his last 10 games. In those contests, he’s posted 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 4 RBIs. La Stella gets a solid matchup against Merrill Kelly and a weak Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen. He’s expected to lead off against the right-handed pitcher tonight, as well. La Stella is questionable with an Achilles injury, and Luis Arraez is an outstanding option here if La Stella doesn’t draw the start.

3B

Rafael Devers

Once again, I’m going back to Devers tonight. He boasts a .300 average with a .450 slugging percentage and a .799 OPS over his last 10 games. He recorded 4 extra-base hits (1 home run), 5 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over that span. Devers gets a great matchup against Zac Lowther, although he’s better against right-handed pitching. Still, he’ll see plenty of the Baltimore Orioles bullpen tonight, and Devers is an elite option on this slate. Kris Bryant is also a bit too cheap on this slate.

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SS

Xander Bogaerts

There are several great shortstop options on this slate, as I discussed in the daily MLB Podcast. With that being said, Bogaerts is the top option. He’s only hitting for a .237 average with a .395 slugging percentage and a .704 OPS over his last 10 games. In those contests, he possesses 2 home runs and 8 RBIs. Bogaerts is a dominant option against left-handed pitching, and he gets a great matchup against Zac Lowther tonight. He’s an elite option in all leagues. If you need salary relief here, Nick Gordon is an outstanding option.

OF

Boston Red Sox 

The Red Sox are far and away my favorite offense on this slate, and their entire outfield can be used. Kike Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe, and JD Martinez are three of the top options [in that order]. Alex Verdugo and Kyle Schwarber are also elite options depending on who draws the start. Overall, it’ll be difficult to go wrong with anyone in this outfield.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants are another offense in a quietly good matchup. Merrill Kelly isn’t necessarily that bad of a pitcher, but I’m not going to shy away from him. More importantly, they’ll get innings against a terrible Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen. LaMonte Wade and Mike Yastrzemski are two outstanding left-handed batters for this matchup. Kris Bryant is the dominant right-handed batter, who I already said I would use above. These are the three in this game I would focus on here.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins have three solid options in the outfield tonight. I already outlined Nick Gordon a bit above, and he can be considered in all leagues for his price tag. Byron Buxton is my top option against Casey Mize, but he is also the most expensive. If you need to save a bit of salary off of him, Max Kepler can be considered on this slate.

 

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DraftKings Team Stacks

DK MLB Stacks

FanDuel Team Stacks

FD MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

We have 13 games tonight, and there are plenty of pitchers that make great options. With that being said, there are also a few outstanding stacks. Below are my five favorites.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

BOS – Hernandez/Renfroe/Devers/Bogaerts/Martinez

LAD – Betts/Seager/Turner/Muncy/Smith

SF – La Stella/Wade/Crawford/Bryant/Yastrzemski

KC – Merrifield/Lopez/Perez/Benintendi/Mondesi

MIN – Arraez/Buxton/Polanco/Donaldson/Kepler

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

BOS – Renfroe/Devers/Bogaerts

LAD – Betts/Truner/Muncy

SF – Wade/Crawford/Bryant

KC – Merrifield/Perez/Benintendi

MIN – Buxton/Polanco/Donaldson

 

Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)

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