MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (9/28/21) - DFS Karma
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MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (9/28/21)

Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!

 

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Projections will be updated throughout the day. You can stay up to date on all of our latest projections by utilizing our FREE projections portal at DFS Karma.

NOTE: Tables are embedded in the breakdown and update LIVE. The various tables will update with starting lineups confirmation, when projections are edited in the projections portal(s), and every hour. If a table is showing an error message or is blank, please wait a moment and refresh the page and it should re-populate correctly. Thanks!

Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Chris Sale

Sale’s thrown well through only 35 innings this season, recording a 2.57 ERA with a 3.38 xFIP and a 26.4% strikeout rate. He’s seen mixed results in recent games, although he’s thrown 85+ pitches in 3 of his last 4 starts. As you can see on my Pitchers Chart below, Sale gets an elite matchup against the Baltimore Orioles. They’ve posted a .286 team wOBA with a slate-high 28.1% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. Sale’s a -257 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, and he’s an elite option on this slate. There are plenty of elite arms, though, meaning Sale isn’t necessarily a lock at this point.

Logan Webb

Webb’s the closest pitcher to a lock for me on this slate. He’s ridiculously priced, as he boasts a 3.04 ERA with a 2.82 xFIP and a 26.2% strikeout rate through 136.1 innings this season. He’s seen mixed results in recent starts, but he possesses 30+ DK point upside, especially in this matchup. Webb will face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who own a .285 team wOBA with a 24.8% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. Arizona’s also struggled on the road throughout the 2021 season. Webb’s a -271 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, and he’s the top option for his price tag tonight. 

Reynaldo Lopez

There are several elite higher-priced arms on this slate, but Lopez can be considered if you need to save salary at this position. He enters this game with a 3.16 ERA, 3.60 xFIP, and 25.9% strikeout rate through 51.1 innings, although plenty of those innings were as a reliever. Lopez gets a tough matchup against the Cincinnati Reds, who’ve posted a .354 team wOBA and a 20.2% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. With that being said, they’re significantly better at home, and this game will be played in Chicago. Lopez is a -170 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, and he’s the top salary relief option at pitcher tonight.

Other GPP Targets: Zack Wheeler, Brandon Woodruff, Charlie Morton, Walker Buehler, Adam Wainwright

 

Top DraftKings Batters

MLB Top Batters

Top FanDuel Batters

FD MLB Top Batters

 

Batters

C

Elias Diaz

Unsurprisingly after their last series, the Coors game is grossly mispriced again. Diaz has performed well in recent games, posting a .290 average with a .484 slugging percentage and a .817 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns 4 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 4 RBIs. Diaz gets a great matchup against Patrick Corbin tonight, and he’s the clear top option on this slate. If you can’t fit him into your lineups, Riley Adams, Christian Vazquez, and Jose Trevino are other salary relief options that can be considered.

1B

CJ Cron

Here we go again with Cron. He’s been playing at a high level, recording a .357 average with a .571 slugging percentage and a .963 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 7 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 7 RBIs in those contests. Cron’s averaging over 10 DK points per game at home in 2021, as well. He gets a great matchup against Patrick Corbin, and he’s found plenty of success against left-handed pitching. Cron could be the most mispriced option on the entire slate, and he’s an easy plug-and-play in all leagues tonight.

2B

Brendan Rodgers

Similar to the majority of the Colorado Rockies players tonight, Rodgers is underpriced. Over his last 10 games, he’s posted a .310 average with a .571 slugging percentage and a .912 OPS. He possesses 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 6 RBIs over that span. Rodgers gets a great matchup against Patrick Corbin, and he’s expected to hit second in the Colorado lineup tonight. He’s entirely too cheap, making an elite cash game option. Tommy La Stella is an interesting direct pivot off of him in GPPs.

3B

Rafael Devers

Devers’ found plenty of success over his last 10 games, recording a .325 average with a .475 slugging percentage and a .861 OPS. Over that span, he posted 4 extra-base hits (1 home run), 5 RBIs, and 1 stolen base. Devers gets a matchup against Bruce Zimmermann, and he’s a better option against right-handed pitching. Although a lefty will start on the mound, he’ll see plenty of innings against a weak Baltimore Orioles bullpen. For that reason, Devers is one of the top options at third base, as his price tag is entirely too low for his upside.

Colton Welker

Welker hasn’t performed well in the MLB through only a few games this season. With that being said, this is about getting a piece of this game for his price tag. He’s near the minimum price, but the right-handed batter is expected to start against Patrick Corbin tonight. Welker’s only expected to hit eighth in the Colorado Rockies lineup, but he’s an outstanding salary relief option on this slate.

Editor’s Note: Remember, you can sign up for all of our Core Plays here, or join our free Discord here.

SS

Xander Bogaerts

Bogaerts is surprisingly cheap on this slate. He’s hitting for a .282 average with a .487 slugging percentage and a .836 OPS over his last 10 games. In those contests, he owns 3 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 8 RBIs. More importantly, Bogaerts gets a matchup against Bruce Zimmermann in a hitter-friendly stadium tonight. He’s hitting in the heart of the Boston Red Sox lineup, and he’s an elite option in all leagues.

Trevor Story

Story’s arguably the easiest option at shortstop tonight. He’s been cooling down a little in recent games, posting a .220 average with 2 extra-base hits (1 home run), 4 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over his last 10. He gets a great matchup against Patrick Corbin, and Story is an elite hitter at home against left-handed pitching. He should be priced well above $5k on this slate, and he can be used in all leagues tonight.

OF

Coors Game

The Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals are two of the top offenses on this slate tonight, giving us plenty of outfield options. On the Colorado side, Raimel Tapia and Charlie Blackmon are the top options. Sam Hilliard can also be considered as a salary relief option, although he’s in a tier below. Lane Thomas, Juan Soto, and Josh Bell are three elite options for Washington. That’s the order I like them for their price tags, as well.

Boston Red Sox

Boston gets a great matchup against Bruce Zimmermann tonight, and they have a few outstanding right-handed batters who can take advantage of this matchup. Kike Hernandez, JD Martinez, and Hunter Renfroe stand out as the top options for Boston. Each of the three comes with elite upside. Alex Verdugo and Kyle Schwarber (depending on who’s starting) can also be considered. I don’t expect Zimmermann to throw deep into this game, leaving plenty of innings for the Boston outfielders against the Baltimore Orioles bullpen. They’re all in play in this matchup.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are another offense in a good spot tonight. They get a plus matchup against Riley O’Brien, who wasn’t overly impressive in Triple-A. Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert are the top options in terms of pure upside for Chicago. Gavin Sheets and Andrew Vaughn are both cheap enough to be considered in GPPs on this slate, as well. I prefer Sheets over Vaughn, though.

 

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DraftKings Team Stacks

DK MLB Stacks

FanDuel Team Stacks

FD MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

Although we have a 13 game slate, there aren’t a ton of stacks I love tonight. With that being said, there are a few great ones, and my five favorites are listed below.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

BOS – Hernandez/Renfroe/Devers/Bogaerts/Martinez

COL – Tapia/Rodgers/Blackmon/Story/Cron

WAS – Thomas/Escobar/Soto/Bell/Zimmerman

CHW – Anderson/Abreu/Grandal/Jimenez/Robert

SF – La Stella/Bryant/Posey/Wade/Crawford

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

BOS – Renfroe/Devers/Bogaerts

COL – Rodgers/Story/Cron

WAS – Thomas/Soto/Bell

CHW – Anderson/Abreu/Grandal

SF – Bryant/Wade/Crawford

 

Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)

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