MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (9/21/21) - DFS Karma
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MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (9/21/21)

Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!

 

Vegas Overview – Below is an excerpt from our sister site, Bet Karma. It has daily player props, live trends (below), and much more! Access all odds, trends, and line movement for all sports here: BetKarma Live MLB Trends

Projections will be updated throughout the day. You can stay up to date on all of our latest projections by utilizing our FREE projections portal at DFS Karma.

NOTE: Tables are embedded in the breakdown and update LIVE. The various tables will update with starting lineups confirmation, when projections are edited in the projections portal(s), and every hour. If a table is showing an error message or is blank, please wait a moment and refresh the page and it should re-populate correctly. Thanks!

Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Brandon Woodruff

Woodruff’s enjoyed an elite season for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2021. Through 28 starts, he boasts a 2.55 ERA with a slate-low 3.05 xFIP and a slate-high 29.6% strikeout rate. He’s seen mixed results over his last few starts, although he flashed 35 DK point upside against the Cincinnati Reds. Woodruff gets a solid matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals, who own a .321 team wOBA with a 23.9% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. He’s currently a -210 favorite in a game set at only 7.5 runs, making him the top option at pitcher on this slate.

Jordan Montgomery

As you can see in my MLB Pitchers Chart below, Montgomery’s been throwing at a high level for the New York Yankees this season. He boasts a 3.63 ERA with a 3.91 xFIP and a 24.8% strikeout rate through 27 starts. He’s also coming off of a 30.6 DK point performance against the Baltimore Orioles. Montgomery gets a great matchup against the Texas Rangers, who’ve recorded a .280 team wOBA with a 24.3% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. He’s surprisingly cheap as a -239 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, and Montgomery can be considered in all leagues on this slate.

Griffin Jax

I hate the fact that I have to consider Jax [and Alec Mills] on this slate, but that’s the way it’s working tonight. Jax is one of the worst pitchers in the MLB, posting a 6.65 ERA with a 5.68 xFIP and a 17.8% strikeout rate through 15 games (11 starts) this season. He did score 27.9 DK points against the Chicago White Sox in a relatively recent game, though. Jax gets a plus matchup against the Chicago Cubs tonight. They do own a .321 team wOBA over the last 14 days, although they’ve also recorded a 28% strikeout rate over that span. Most importantly, the wind is blowing in at roughly 16 mph for this game. Jax is a +106 underdog, but the game total is set at only 8 runs. He’s an interesting option for his price tag and matchup on this slate.

Other GPP Targets: Kevin Gausman, Jose Urquidy, Eduardo Rodriguez, Alec Mills

 

Top DraftKings Batters

MLB Top Batters

Top FanDuel Batters

FD MLB Top Batters

 

Batters

C

Will Smith

You’re going to see plenty of Los Angeles Dodgers in this article, and it starts with Smith at catcher. He’s been playing well, hitting for a .333 average with a .700 slugging percentage and a 1.150 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he boasts 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 7 RBIs. Smith gets a great matchup against Antonio Senzatela in Coors, and he’s found plenty of success against right-handed pitching this season. He’s expected to hit sixth in the Los Angeles lineup, and he’s an elite option if you can spend all the way up at this position tonight.

Martin Maldonado

Since it’s a Coors slate with high-end pitching options, you may need to punt this position. Maldonado is the perfect option. He’s posted a .241 average with a .345 slugging percentage and a .657 OPS over his last 10 games. He’s recorded 1 home run and 3 RBIs in those contests. Maldonado’s been at his best against left-handed pitching, and he gets a great matchup against Packy Naughton tonight. Although he’s hitting late in the Houston Astros lineup, Maldonado can be used in all leagues as a salary relief option.

1B

Max Muncy

Muncy’s been struggling a bit over his last 10 games, recording a .194 average with a .528 slugging percentage and a .778 OPS. He does boast 6 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 7 RBIs over that span. Muncy gets a great matchup against Antonio Senzatela, and his power should be on full display in Coors tonight. He’s averaging over 10 DK points per game against Colorado this season, and Muncy’s expected to hit second in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. Once again, if you can get to the top of this position, Muncy is an elite option.

Yuli Gurriel

This second recommendation came down to Gurriel or Anthony Rizzo, who are both underpriced on this slate. The former is hitting for a .364 average with a .409 slugging percentage and a .800 OPS over his last 10 games. In those contests, he possesses 2 extra-base hits and 4 RBIs. Gurriel gets an elite matchup against Packy Naughton, and he’s found plenty of success against left-handed pitching throughout his career. He’s expected to hit fifth in the Houston Astros lineup, and he’s far too cheap for this slate tonight.

2B

Trea Turner

You’re deciding between Turner and Jose Altuve at the top of second base with the former gaining a slight edge. He’s been playing well over his last 10 games, posting a .275 average with a .400 slugging percentage and a .741 OPS. He also owns 3 extra-base hits (1 home run), 4 RBIs, and 4 stolen bases in those games. Turner’s expected to hit third in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, and he gets a great matchup against Antonio Senzatela in Coors tonight. He boasts an elite combination of speed and power, making him one of the top options in this matchup.

Josh Harrison

Harrison continues to play well for the Oakland A’s, recording a .308 average with 2 extra-base hits and 12 RBIs over his last 10 games. He also comes with stolen base potential each night. Harrison gets a great matchup against Marco Gonzales, and he’s expected to lead off for the Oakland A’s. He’s a great option, alongside DJ LeMahieu, for a cheaper price tag on this slate.

3B

Rafael Devers

You can consider Justin Turner here, but I prefer Devers for the cheaper price tag. He’s recorded a .263 average with a .395 slugging percentage and a .773 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he’s posted 3 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 4 RBIs. Devers gets an interesting matchup against Marcus Stroman, and he’s been an elite option at home against right-handed pitching this season. He comes with tremendous upside, especially hitting fourth in the Boston Red Sox lineup. Devers may be best suited for tournaments on this slate, though.

Alex Bregman

It should come as no surprise to see Bregman in this article. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting for a .289 average with a .395 slugging percentage and a .773 OPS. He possesses 2 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 10 RBIs in those games. Bregman’s a dominant option against left-handed pitching, and he gets a great matchup against Packy Naughton tonight. Bregman’s expected to hit second in the Houston Astros lineup, and he’s the easy option once again at third base tonight.

Editor’s Note: Remember, you can sign up for all of our Core Plays here, or join our free Discord here.

SS

Corey Seager

Seager will travel to Coors tonight, yet his price tag barely jumped from recent games. He’s been playing well, recording a .294 average with a .471 slugging percentage and a .855 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 2 home runs and 5 RBIs over that span, as well. Seager gets a great matchup against Antonio Senzatela, and he may be the most mispriced option on this slate. He’s an easy plug-and-play in all leagues, specifically cash games.

Carlos Correa

Correa acts as a direct pivot off of Seager tonight. He’s been on fire, hitting for a .341 average with a .561 slugging percentage and a .925 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 5 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 12 RBIs in those contests. Correa gets a great matchup against Packy Naughton, and he’s expected to hit third in the Houston Astros lineup against the left-handed pitcher. Correa should go completely overlooked tonight, but he’s an elite pivot off of Seager.

OF

Los Angeles Dodgers

The most obvious outfield is Los Angeles, although they’re in a bit of a tricky position. Mookie Betts is hitting for a .359 average with 5 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 7 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over his last 10 games. He’s leading off and the top option for the Dodgers. Chris Taylor and Cody Bellinger have been cold in recent games, but they’re expected to start and hit late in the Los Angeles lineup. They’re two cheaper ways to get a piece of this offense.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are quietly in a great spot tonight, as Dillon Tate is expected to serve as the opener with Chris Ellis piggybacking off of him. Bryce Harper isn’t going to come cheap, but he’s playing at an elite level and should take advantage of this elite matchup. Odubel Herrera’s seen mixed results in recent games, but he’s performed well against right-handed pitching and can be used in all leagues. Andrew McCutchen is the final option that can be considered, although he’s better for tournaments on this slate.

Atlanta Braves

Atlanta’s outfield’s been one of the hottest in the MLB in recent games. Eddie Rosario’s expected to hit sixth in the Braves lineup, but he’s found tremendous success in recent games. He’s entirely too cheap for a matchup against Luke Weaver and the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen. Jorge Soler’s another option, who’s entirely too cheap on this slate. He’s the coldest of the three outfielders for Atlanta, but he can be used in all leagues for his price tag. Adam Duvall is the only option who is appropriately priced, but he comes with more than enough upside to be considered on this slate.

Houston Astros

The Astros are in a great spot against Packy Naughton tonight. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker can be used on this slate, even in the lefty/lefty matchup. They aren’t who this recommendation is about, though. Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick are two cheap options who should be able to take advantage of this matchup. They can be considered in all leagues, as they’ll allow you to spend up on the Coors game tonight.

 

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DraftKings Team Stacks

DK MLB Stacks

FanDuel Team Stacks

FD MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

We’re back to a bigger 11 game slate tonight. There are several great stacking options on this slate, and my five favorites are listed below.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

LAD – Betts/Seager/Turner/Muncy/Smith

HOU – Altuve/Bregman/Correa/Alvarez/Gurriel

ATL – Soler/Freeman/Albies/Duvall/Rosario

PHI – Herrera/Segura/Harper/Realmuto/Gregorius

OAK – Harrison/Marte/Olson/Chapman/Canha

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

LAD – Betts/Seager/Muncy

HOU – Altuve/Bregman/Correa

PHI – Herrera/Harper/Realmuto

ATL – Freeman/Albies/Duvall

OAK – Marte/Chapman/Canha

 

Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)

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