Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!

 

Vegas Overview – Below is an excerpt from our sister site, Bet Karma. It has daily player props, live trends (below), and much more! Access all odds, trends, and line movement for all sports here: BetKarma Live MLB Trends

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NOTE: Tables are embedded in the breakdown and update LIVE. The various tables will update with starting lineups confirmation, when projections are edited in the projections portal(s), and every hour. If a table is showing an error message or is blank, please wait a moment and refresh the page and it should re-populate correctly. Thanks!

Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Robbie Ray

Ray’s been an elite option for the Toronto Blue Jays throughout the season. He boasts a 2.64 ERA with a 3.15 xFIP and a 33.1% strikeout rate through 29 starts. He’s posted 33+ DK points in 5 of his last 6 starts, including a 41.4 DK point performance against the Tampa Bay Rays. He gets another matchup against Tampa Bay tonight, and they’ve recorded a .325 team wOBA with a 22.4% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. The Rays certainly have some dominant right-handed bats throughout their lineup, but they also feature plenty of strikeouts. Ray’s a -127 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, and he’s my top spend-up on this slate.

Ranger Suarez

Suarez continues to throw at a high level, and he continues to be underpriced. Through 36 games (9 starts), he boasts a 1.50 ERA with a 3.52 xFIP and a 25.4% strikeout rate. He posted 20+ DK points in each of his last 5 starts, as well. Suarez gets a plus matchup against the Baltimore Orioles, who’ve posted a .318 team wOBA and a 25.7% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. He’s a -199 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, and Suarez is an elite salary relief option with limited options on this slate.

Other GPP Targets: Freddy Peralta, Nestor Cortes, Huascar Ynoa, Sean Manaea

 

Top DraftKings Batters

MLB Top Batters

Top FanDuel Batters

FD MLB Top Batters

 

Batters

C

JT Realmuto

Realmuto’s found plenty of success over his last 10 games for the Philadelphia Phillies, recording a .278 average with a .417 slugging percentage and a .767 OPS over that span. He boasts 3 extra-base hits (1 home run), 7 RBIs, and 4 stolen bases in those games. Realmuto gets a great matchup against John Means, who’s struggled with home runs throughout the season. He’s expected to hit fourth in the Philadelphia lineup, as well. Realmuto’s price tag is entirely too low on this slate, and he should be the chalk option at catcher tonight.

1B

Anthony Rizzo 

If you can get to Freddie Freeman here, he’s an elite option. If not, Rizzo is the top play. The New York Yankees’ first baseman’s struggled a bit in recent games, posting a .206 average with a .412 slugging percentage and a .737 OPS over his last 10 contests. He’s recorded 3 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 3 RBIs over that span. Rizzo gets a great matchup against AJ Alexy, who’s due for regression as he throws more innings this season. Rizzo’s expected to hit second in the New York lineup, and he’s far too cheap on this slate.

2B

DJ LeMahieu

Ideally, you’ll be able to get to Jose Altuve here, but if you can’t, LeMahieu’s an elite option. He’s found plenty of success for the New York Yankees over his last 10 games, hitting for a .351 average with a .459 slugging percentage and a .864 OPS. He owns 2 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 2 RBIs over that span. LeMahieu gets a plus matchup against A.J. Alexy tonight, and he’s expected to lead off for New York. He’s a bit too cheap, and he can be used in all leagues tonight.

3B

Alex Bregman

We’re back to an underpriced Bregman tonight. He’s posted a .343 average with a .543 slugging percentage and a .957 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he’s recorded 3 extra-base hits (2 home run) and 11 RBIs. Bregman gets a great matchup against Jaime Barria, who’s one of the worst pitchers on this slate. The former is expected to hit second in a dominant Houston Astros lineup, and he’s an elite option in all leagues.

Editor’s Note: Remember, you can sign up for all of our Core Plays here, or join our free Discord here.

SS

Gleyber Torres

There are several solid options at shortstop tonight, but Torres sticks out as too cheap. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting for a .289 average with a .421 slugging percentage and a .763 OPS. He boasts 3 extra-base hits (1 home run), 2 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases over that span. Torres gets a great matchup against A.J. Alexy, and he’s a cheap way to get a piece of the New York Yankees offense tonight. He’s expected to hit sixth in their lineup, and he can be considered in all leagues.

OF

Jorge Soler

The entire Atlanta Braves outfield can be considered on this slate, although Soler is the option that sticks out above the rest. He owns a .289 average with a .474 slugging percentage and a .831 OPS over his last 10 games. In those contests, he posted 5 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 4 RBIs. Soler’s hitting second in the Atlanta offense, and he gets a great matchup against Humberto Mejia and the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen. He can be used in all leagues.

New York Yankees

There are four options for New York that can be considered here in a plus matchup against A.J. Alexy. If Joey Gallo is in the lineup, he’s a top option for a surprisingly low price tag. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton both come with tremendous upside because of their power, as they own 9 combined home runs over their last 10 games. The final option is Brett Gardner, who has been playing well and is a cheaper way to get a piece of this offense.

 

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams

“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)

“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DraftKings Team Stacks

DK MLB Stacks

FanDuel Team Stacks

FD MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

We only have seven games tonight with a few obvious stacks. Below are my three favorite stacks for this slate.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

HOU – Altuve/Bregman/Alvarez/Tucker/Correa

NYY – LeMahieu/Rizzo/Judge/Stanton/Gallo

ATL – Albies/Soler/Freeman/Riley/Rosario

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

HOU – Altuve/Bregman/Alvarez

NYY – Rizzo/Stanton/Gallo

ATL – Albies/Soler/Freeman

 

Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)