MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (9/2/21) - DFS Karma
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MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (9/2/21)

Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!

 

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NOTE: Tables are embedded in the breakdown and update LIVE. The various tables will update with starting lineups confirmation, when projections are edited in the projections portal(s), and every hour. If a table is showing an error message or is blank, please wait a moment and refresh the page and it should re-populate correctly. Thanks!

Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Triston McKenzie

You’re choosing between McKenzie and Shane McClanahan at the top of pitcher. I prefer the upside and matchup for McKenzie along with the lower price tag. He’s seen mixed results in 2020, posting a 4.83 ERA with a 4.61 xFIP and a 28.5% strikeout rate through 19 games (18 starts). He’s posted 32 and 43.4 DK points in his last 2 starts, as well. McKenzie gets an interesting matchup against the Kansas City Royals, who own a .305 team wOBA and a 20.5% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. Although they haven’t been striking out, this is a matchup McKenzie can find success in. He’s a +105 underdog in a game set at 7.5 runs, but he boasts as much upside as any pitcher on this slate.

Carlos Carrasco

Carrasco’s been an interesting pitcher through limited innings this season. As you can see in the MLB Pitchers Chart below, he’s due for massive positive regression. Carrasco’s 6.94 ERA sits well above his 3.67 xFIP in 2021. He also owns a 23% strikeout rate through 6 starts. Carrasco gets a plus matchup against the Miami Marlins, who’ve posted a slate-low .274 team wOBA with a 24.6% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. He’s a -180 favorite in a game set at 7.5 runs, and he’s one of the top options for his price tag on this slate.

Mitch Keller

Keller’s in a bit of an odd spot tonight. It’s early in the morning as I’m writing this, meaning we don’t have a great grasp on ownership. If Keller is going to be one of the higher-owned pitchers on the slate, I don’t want to use him. He’s arguably the worst pitcher on this slate, recording a 6.75 ERA with a 5.08 xFIP and a 19.9% strikeout rate. With that being said, Keller gets a matchup against the Chicago Cubs, who own a .293 team wOBA and a slate-high 30.6% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. The matchup can give Keller upside, but I’m only slightly interested in him if he won’t be one of the higher-owned pitchers tonight.

Other GPP Targets: Shane McClanahan, Keegan Thompson

Top DraftKings Batters

MLB Top Batters

Top FanDuel Batters

FD MLB Top Batters

 

Batters

C

Mike Zunino

Zunino’s always in play against left-handed pitching. He’s cooled off in recent games, posting a .212 average, although he also owns a .636 slugging percentage and a .986 OPS over his last 10 contests. He boasts 5 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 7 RBIs over that span. Zunino gets a matchup against Eduardo Rodriguez, and he enters this game with a .524 wOBA and a .527 ISO against left-handed pitching. He’s expected to hit sixth in the Tampa Bay Rays lineup, and he could go under-owned because of his matchup on this slate.

Patrick Mazeika

Mazeika’s been ice cold over his last 10 games, recording a .083 average with 1 extra-base hit. He gets an interesting matchup against Zach Thompson, and he brings .030 wOBA and .063 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. Mazeika’s only expected to hit eighth in the New York Mets lineup tonight. Although he hasn’t played overly well, this is an interesting matchup on a five-game slate. Mazeika’s a solid salary relief option with limited options available.

1B

Freddie Freeman

As mentioned on our daily MLB Podcast, Freeman’s the obvious option for the Atlanta Braves tonight. He’s only hitting for a .220 average with a .317 slugging percentage and a .573 OPS over his last 10 games. In those contests, he owns 2 extra-base hits (1 home run), 2 RBIs, and 1 stolen base. With that being said, Freeman gets an elite matchup against Chi Chi Gonzalez in Coors. He boasts a .389 wOBA and a .221 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Freeman’s hitting third in the Atlanta lineup, and he’s an elite option in all leagues on this slate.

Frank Schwindel

Schwindel can be considered for his current price tag. He’s been playing well, hitting for a .289 average with a .579 slugging percentage and a .936 OPS over his last 10 games. He recorded 4 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 6 RBIs over that span. Schwindel gets a great matchup against Mitch Keller, and he found some success against right-handed pitching this season. He’s expected to hit second in the Chicago Cubs lineup, and Schwindel’s a bit too cheap for his recent production.

2B

Whit Merrifield

Although I like Triston McKenzie tonight, he isn’t an untouchable pitcher. Merrifield’s entirely too cheap, as he’s hitting for a .326 average with a .605 slugging percentage and a .980 OPS over his last 10 games. He’s posted 7 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 10 RBIs, and 1 stolen base in those contests. Merrifield continues to lead off for the Kansas City Royals, and he boasts an elite combination of speed and power. He’s an outstanding option in all leagues.

Brendan Rodgers

This is arguably the worst position on the slate. Rodgers’ seen mixed results over his last 10 games, posting a .233 average with a .465 slugging percentage and a .715 OPS. He owns 6 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 9 RBIs over that span. Surprisingly, Rodgers’ been better on the road in 2021, although he’ll benefit from playing in Coors tonight. He gets an interesting matchup against Touki Toussaint, and he’s expected to hit second in the Colorado Rockies lineup. He’s a solid option at a terrible position on this slate.

3B

Austin Riley

I really like Jose Ramirez at the top of this position tonight, but it’s impossible to overlook Riley in Coors. He’s been on fire, hitting for a .359 average with a .538 slugging percentage and a .913 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 3 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 5 RBIs in those contests. Riley gets a great matchup against Chi Chi Gonzalez in Coors, and he brings .093 wOBA and .111 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game. He’s hitting fourth in the Atlanta Braves lineup, and he’s an elite option at the top of this position.

Ehire Adrianza

When will you be able to get a starter in Coors for the minimum price? Adrianza isn’t a good player, hitting for a .077 average without any added stats in limited at-bats over his last 10 games. With that being said, he gets an elite matchup against Chi Chi Gonzalez in Coors, and he’ll be hitting in the best offense on the slate. Adrianza likely isn’t needed in cash games tonight, but he’s a cheap way to be able to spend up everywhere else on this slate.

Editor’s Note: Remember, you can sign up for all of our Core Plays here, or join our free Discord here.

SS

Adalberto Mondesi

Mondesi was on fire before his injury, and he picked up right where he left off when he returned. Overall, he’s hitting for a .366 average with a .854 slugging percentage and a 1.235 OPS through 11 games. He boasts 10 extra-base hits (5 home runs), 10 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases in those contests. Mondesi gets an interesting matchup against Triston McKenzie. He’s only expected to hit sixth in the Kansas City Royals lineup, although he could move higher in the lineup sooner rather than later. Mondesi makes a solid option in all leagues on this slate.

Jonathan Villar

Villar’s another shortstop who’s been playing at an extremely high rate in recent games. Over his last 10 contests, he’s posted a .364 average with a .576 slugging percentage and a 1.008 OPS. He’s recorded 4 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 3 RBIs in those games. Villar gets a plus matchup against Zach Thompson, and he owns a .088 ISO differential against right-handed pitching this season. He’s expected to lead off for the New York Mets, and he can be considered in all leagues as a salary relief option.

OF

Atlanta Braves/Colorado Rockies

This is relatively simple. This is by far the best game environment on the slate. Anyone starting from either side can be considered in all leagues on this slate. There are four players that stand above the rest – Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, Charlie Blackmon, and Raimel Tapia – tonight. The remaining options include Adam Duvall, Sam Hilliard, and Ehire Adrianza. Again, this is the top game to pull from on a smaller five-game slate tonight.

Randy Arozarena

Arozarena’s cooled off a bit over his last 10 games. Over that span, he’s hitting for a .176 average with a .353 slugging percentage and a .635 OPS. He owns 2 home runs, 5 RBIs, and 1 stolen base in those games. Arozarena gets a tougher matchup against Eduardo Rodriguez, and he enters this game with a .378 wOBA and a .225 ISO against left-handed pitching. Arozarena’s expected to lead off for the Tampa Bay Rays, and he makes a solid option on this slate.

Patrick Wisdom

Wisdom’s looked outstanding over his last 10 games, hitting for a .243 average with a .757 slugging percentage and a 1.074 OPS. He’s recorded 7 extra-base hits (6 home runs) and 12 RBIs in those contests. Wisdom gets a great matchup against Mitch Keller, who’s been one of the worst starters in the MLB this season. He’s hitting fourth in the Chicago Cubs lineup, and he can be used in all leagues tonight.

Myles Straw

Straw’s cooled off a bit but he continues to be far too cheap on a nightly basis. He’s only posted a .227 average with a .318 slugging percentage and a .595 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 2 extra-base hits (1 home run), 3 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over that span. Straw’s been better against right-handed pitching, but he gets a plus matchup against Mike Minor tonight. He’s leading off for Cleveland, and he can be considered in all leagues.

 

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DraftKings Team Stacks

DK MLB Stacks

FanDuel Team Stacks

FD MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

We only have five games tonight, which limits the stacking options. There are still a few elite stacks on this slate, and my five favorites are listed below.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

ATL – Pederson/Soler/Freeman/Riley/d’Arnaud

COL – Joe/Rodgers/Blackmon/Story/Cron

CHC – Ortega/Schwindel/Happ/Wisdom/Duffy

CLE – Straw/Rosario/Ramirez/Reyes/Ramirez

NYM – Villar/Lindor/Alonso/Conforto/Baez

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

ATL – Pederson/Freeman/Riley

COL – Blackmon/Story/Cron

CHC – Ortega/Schwindel/Wisdom

CLE – Rosario/Ramirez/Reyes

NYM – Villar/Alonso/Conforto

 

Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)

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