MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (9/17/21) - DFS Karma
Connect with us

Baseball

MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (9/17/21)

Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!

 

Vegas Overview – Below is an excerpt from our sister site, Bet Karma. It has daily player props, live trends (below), and much more! Access all odds, trends, and line movement for all sports here: BetKarma Live MLB Trends

Projections will be updated throughout the day. You can stay up to date on all of our latest projections by utilizing our FREE projections portal at DFS Karma.

NOTE: Tables are embedded in the breakdown and update LIVE. The various tables will update with starting lineups confirmation, when projections are edited in the projections portal(s), and every hour. If a table is showing an error message or is blank, please wait a moment and refresh the page and it should re-populate correctly. Thanks!

Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Zack Wheeler

Wheeler’s in the middle of an elite season for the Philadelphia Phillies, posting a 2.86 ERA with a 2.88 xFIP and a 28.9% strikeout rate through 29 starts. He’s posted 28.2 and 32.5 DK points in his last 2 starts, as well. Wheeler gets somewhat of a tough matchup against his former team in the New York Mets. They boast a .343 team wOBA to go along with a 21.7% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. With that being said, Wheeler’s a -133 favorite in a game set at 7.5 runs, and he’s an elite option on this slate.

Dylan Cease

Cease isn’t necessarily my favorite option, but he is an interesting play on this slate. Through 29 starts, he owns a 4.22 ERA with a 3.90 xFIP and a slate-high 31.1% strikeout rate. He’s coming off of a bad game against the Boston Red Sox, but he recently flashed near 40 DK point upside, as well. Cease gets an outstanding matchup against the Texas Rangers, who’ve recorded a .286 team wOBA over the last 14 days. The only issue is they have also only posted a 21.9% strikeout rate over that span. Still, Cease is a -186 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, and he’s a player that can be considered in all leagues tonight.

Elieser Hernandez

Hernandez has seen mixed results in limited starts this season, recording a 4.14 ERA with a 4.05 xFIP and a 23.4% strikeout rate in 2021. He’s flashed 20 DK point upside, and he got up to 93 pitches in his last start. More importantly, Hernandez gets a matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who own a .327 team wOBA with an 18.5% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. He isn’t a dominant strikeout option, and Hernandez is a -154 favorite in a game set at 8 runs. He’s a bit too cheap on this slate, making him a solid salary relief option.

Other GPP Targets: Logan Webb, Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Luis Patino, Hyun Jin Ryu, Zach Plesac

 

Top DraftKings Batters

MLB Top Batters

Top FanDuel Batters

FD MLB Top Batters

 

Batters

C

Yasmani Grandal

Grandal continues to play at an elite level, posting a .353 average with a .559 slugging percentage and a 1.024 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he boasts 3 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 8 RBIs. Grandal gets a great matchup against Taylor Hearn, and he’s been an elite hitter against left-handed pitching this season. He’s expected to move to fourth in the Chicago White Sox lineup, and Grandal can be used in all leagues if you can get to his price tag tonight.

Omar Narvaez

Narvaez’s seen mixed results in recent games, recording a .250 average with 2 extra-base hits and 2 RBIs over his last 10 contests. He’s a powerful option against right-handed pitching, and he gets a plus matchup against Alec Mills in Milwaukee’s hitter-friendly stadium. Narvaez’s price tag isn’t overly high at the moment, and he’s expected to hit in the heart of the Milwaukee Brewers offense. He’s a solid option in all leagues if you can’t get to Grandal’s price tag.

1B

Yuli Gurriel

Gurriel’s a bit underpriced on this slate, as he’s found plenty of success over his last 10 games. Over that span, he’s hitting for a .326 average with a .442 slugging percentage and a .811 OPS. He boasts 3 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 5 RBIs in those games. Gurriel gets a great matchup against Madison Bumgarner and a bad Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen. He’s found plenty of success against left-handed pitching throughout his career, and Gurriel is expected to hit fifth in the Houston Astros lineup. He’s an option that can be considered in all leagues tonight.

Jose Abreu

Abreu’s struggled a bit in recent games, although he’s another player who’s far too cheap on this slate. Over his last 10 games, he’s posted a .171 average with 2 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 6 RBIs. Abreu gets a great matchup against Taylor Hearn, and he owns plenty of power against left-handed pitching. He’s hitting in the heart of the Chicago White Sox lineup, and he can be considered in all leagues because of his matchup and price tag.

2B

Jose Altuve

Although Marcus Semien is tempting on this slate, Altuve is the better option for a cheaper price tag. He’s been heating up, recording a .375 average with a .650 slugging percentage and a 1.118 OPS over his last 10 games. He’s posted 7 extra-base hits (2 home runs and 6 RBIs in those contests. Altuve gets a great matchup against Madison Bumgarner and the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen, and he’s leading off for a dominant Houston Astros lineup. He’s a great option in all leagues on this slate.

Kolten Wong

If you need to save a bit of salary at this position, Wong is an outstanding option. Over his last 10 games, he owns a .231 average with a .436 slugging percentage and a .722 OPS. He’s recorded 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 4 RBIs in those games. Wong gets a plus matchup against Zach Davies in Milwaukee’s hitter-friendly stadium. He’s expected to lead off for the Milwaukee Brewers, as well, making him one of the top options under $4k.

3B

Alex Bregman

Bregman’s price tag is on the rise, but he’s still entirely too cheap for how well he’s been playing. He’s hitting for a .405 average with a .703 slugging percentage and a 1.155 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 16 RBIs over that span. Bregman’s dominated left-handed pitching, and he gets a great matchup against Madison Bumgarner tonight. He’s expected to hit second in the Houston Astros lineup, and he’s my favorite play on this slate once again.

Eduardo Escobar

Escobar’s a direct pivot off of Bregman, as he’s only $200 more expensive. He owns a .256 average with 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 8 RBIs over his last 10 games. Escobar’s been great in Milwaukee this season, averaging 8.9 DK points per game at home. He also gets a great matchup against Alec Mills, who’s struggled quite a bit in 2021. Escobar’s expected to hit second in the Milwaukee Brewers lineup, and he’s a great GPP pivot off of Bregman.

Editor’s Note: Remember, you can sign up for all of our Core Plays here, or join our free Discord here.

SS

Carlos Correa

Correa’s a bit underpriced compared to others at his position tonight. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting for a .341 average with a .561 slugging percentage and a .961 OPS. He boasts 5 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 9 RBIs in those games. Correa gets a great matchup against Madison Bumgarner and the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen tonight. He’s expected to hit third in the Houston Astros lineup, and he’s a priority option at shortstop.

Nicky Lopez

Lopez continues to produce, but his price tag has yet to truly adjust to his success. He’s recorded a .386 average with 3 extra-base hits (1 home run), 5 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over his last 10 games. Lopez is a stolen base threat whenever he’s on base, but his recent power has been a pleasant surprise. He gets a solid matchup against Chris Flexen, and Lopez is expected to continue to hit second in the Kansas City Royals lineup. He’s an outstanding cash game play, as he’s too cheap for his recent consistency, while also flashing upside.

OF

Christian Yelich

Yelich’s been struggling throughout the season, but I’m still willing to take a shot on him with this low of a price tag. He’s hitting for a .225 average with 2 extra-base hits and 4 RBIs over his last 10 games. Yelich boasts elite upside, though, and he gets a great matchup against Alec Mills in Milwaukee’s stadium tonight. He’s expected to hit third in the Milwaukee Brewers lineup, and Yelich is a player that should generally be priced around $5k or higher, regardless of his current form.

Boston Red Sox

This is a relatively simple pick. The Red Sox have four outstanding bats that are expected to start in the outfield tonight. Kike Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe, and JD Martinez are all solid right-handed batters, who will benefit from an elite matchup against Keegan Akin tonight. Kyle Schwarber is also expected to draw the start, and he can be used in the lefty/lefty matchup, as well. If any other outfielder starts for Boston, feel free to use them in this game.

Luis Robert

Robert continues to quietly enjoy an elite season for the Chicago White Sox. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting for a .372 average with a .535 slugging percentage and a .935 OPS. He owns 5 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 7 RBIs in those games. Robert gets a great matchup against Taylor Hearn, and he’s found plenty of success against left-handed pitching. He’s expected to hit second in the Chicago lineup, and he’s an elite option in all leagues tonight.

Austin Meadows

Meadows is another great play around the price tag of Robert. He’s only hitting for a .200 average over his last 10 games, but he boasts 4 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 6 RBIs in those contests. Meadows is significantly better against right-handed pitching, and he gets a solid matchup against Casey Mize tonight. He’s expected to hit second in the Tampa Bay Rays lineup, and he can be used in all leagues on this slate.

 

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DraftKings Team Stacks

DK MLB Stacks

FanDuel Team Stacks

FD MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

We have a massive 15 game slate tonight with several elite stacking options. Below are my five favorite stacks.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

HOU – Altuve/Bregman/Correa/Alvarez/Gurriel

BOS – Hernandez/Renfroe/Bogaerts/Devers/Martinez

TOR – Springer/Semien/Guerrero/Bichette/Hernandez

MIL – Wong/Escobar/Yelich/Narvaez/Urias

CHW – Anderson/Robert/Abreu/Grandal/Jimenez

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

HOU – Altuve/Bregman/Correa

BOS – Hernandez/Renfroe/Bogaerts

CHW – Robert/Abreu/Grandal

TOR – Semien/Guerrero/Bichette

MIL – Escobar/Yelich/Narvaez

 

Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)

Related Topics

More in Baseball