MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (9/11/21) - DFS Karma
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MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (9/11/21)

Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!

 

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NOTE: Tables are embedded in the breakdown and update LIVE. The various tables will update with starting lineups confirmation, when projections are edited in the projections portal(s), and every hour. If a table is showing an error message or is blank, please wait a moment and refresh the page and it should re-populate correctly. Thanks!

Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Walker Buehler

Buehler’s coming off a terrible start against the San Francisco Giants, but he’s been the epitome of consistency this season. Through 28 starts, he boasts a 2.31 ERA with a 3.51 xFIP and a 26.3% strikeout rate. He’s also averaging 23.2 DK points per game in Los Angeles this season. Buehler gets an interesting matchup against the San Deigo Padres, who only own a .313 team wOBA and a 21% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. He’s thrown well against them throughout the season, and he’s a bit underpriced on both sites. Buehler’s a -195 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, and he can be considered in all leagues on this slate.

Charlie Morton

Morton’s the most mispriced pitcher on this slate, specifically on DraftKings. As you can see in my MLB Pitchers Chart below, he’s recorded a 3.47 ERA with a 3.24 xFIP and a 28.6% strikeout rate through 28 starts. Most importantly, Morton gets a matchup against the Miami Marlins, who’ve recorded a slate-low .267 team wOBA with a slate-high 27.6% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. He’s a -256 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, and he should be locked into all leagues on DraftKings. His price tag is also too low on FanDuel, although there are other options to consider with only one starting pitcher.

Luis Garcia

On FanDuel, Garcia’s the most mispriced option by a wide margin. For comparison, he’s the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings by $900 and the fifth most expensive option on FanDuel by $1.6k. Garcia’s thrown well in 2021, posting a 3.29 ERA with a 3.70 xFIP and a 28.5% strikeout rate through 26 games (24 starts). He’s cooled off recently but still boasts 30+ DK point upside. Garcia also gets a great matchup against the Los Angeles Angels, who have recorded a .290 team wOBA with a 26.2% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. He’s currently a -232 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs tonight. This trio of pitchers is in their own tier, and the GPP options listed below are significantly lower in my pool than these three.

Other GPP Targets: Taijuan Walker, Corey Kluber

Top DraftKings Batters

MLB Top Batters

Top FanDuel Batters

FD MLB Top Batters

 

Batters

C

Yasmani Grandal

Grandal continues to play at an elite level for the Chicago White Sox. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting for a .379 average with a .759 slugging percentage and a 1.295 OPS. He boasts 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 8 RBIs. Grandal gets a matchup against the Boston Red Sox, who are expected to start Connor Seabold tonight, although nothing’s been confirmed. At this point I’m not concerned with whoever they put on the mound, making Grandal my top high-priced catcher on a relatively difficult slate for hitters.

Martin Maldonado 

Maldonado’s been ice cold in recent games, posting a .107 average with only 1 extra-base hits over his last 10 contests. With that being said, he’s a powerful option against left-handed pitching with a low price tag. Maldonado gets a plus matchup against Jose Suarez, giving him an edge in the Houston Astros lineup. There are a few solid salary relief options at catcher tonight, although none boast the same power that Maldonado does against the handedness of their opposing pitcher.

1B

Freddie Freeman

Freeman continues to be one of the top options at first base on a near-nightly basis. He’s hitting for a .270 average with a .486 slugging percentage and a .859 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he’s posted 6 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 2 RBIs. Freeman’s been a dominant option against right-handed pitching, and he gets a plus matchup against Elieser Hernandez tonight. He’s hitting in the heart of the Atlanta Braves lineup, and he can be considered in all leagues.

Jose Abreu

Similar to Grandal, Abreu’s been playing at a high level over his last 10 games. He’s recorded a .316 average with a .553 slugging percentage and a .948 OPS over that span. He also owns 5 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 8 RBIs in those games. Once again, Connor Seabold’s expected to draw the start for the Boston Red Sox, although I don’t truly care about who’s starting in this situation. The Chicago White Sox will be one of the top stacking options on this slate, and Abreu is a massive part of their offense. 

2B

Jose Altuve

The top of second base came down to Altuve and Ozzie Albies with the former slightly winning out. He’s been heating up over his last 10 games, hitting for a .293 average with a .561 slugging percentage and a .944 OPS. He’s posted 7 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 4 RBIs over that span. Altuve gets a great matchup against Jose Suarez, and he’s found plenty of success against left-handed pitching throughout his career. He’s leading off for the Houston Astros, and he makes an outstanding option in all leagues tonight.

Luis Arraez

If you need to save a bit of money, Arraez makes an interesting option. He’s recorded a .281 average with 2 extra-base hits and 4 RBIs over his last 10 games. He’s been significantly better at home this season, where he’s averaging 7 DK points per game. Arraez gets a solid matchup against Brady Singer, and he’s at his best against right-handed pitching. He’s leading off for the Minnesota Twins, and he’s still cheap enough to be considered in all leagues tonight.

3B

Alex Bregman

It’s difficult not to write up Kyle Seager at this spot, but there are two third basemen, who are grossly underpriced on this slate. Bregman’s found plenty of success in recent games, posting a .432 average with a .649 slugging percentage and a 1.099 OPS over his last 10 contests. Over that span, he owns 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 10 RBIs. Bregman’s also an outstanding option against left-handed pitching, and he gets one of the better matchups on this slate against Jose Suarez. He’s hitting second in the Houston Astros lineup, and he’s as close to a lock as you can get in MLB DFS.

Yoan Moncada

Moncada’s another option that is far too cheap tonight. He’s recorded a .316 average with 3 extra-base hits and 3 RBIs over his last 10 games. He’s flashed more upside at home throughout the season, as well. Moncada gets a potential matchup against Connor Seabold tonight, and he’s hitting near the top of the Chicago White Sox lineup. Keep in mind, Bregman is a significantly better option, but Moncada is a great pivot off of him at a similar price tag.

Editor’s Note: Remember, you can sign up for all of our Core Plays here, or join our free Discord here.

SS

Carlos Correa

Correa’s another Houston Astro who’s been playing at a high level in recent games. He’s hitting for a .366 average with a .585 slugging percentage and a .994 OPS over his last 10 games. In those contests, he posted 5 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 6 RBIs. Correa’s another right-handed batter who will benefit from the matchup against Jose Suarez tonight. He’s expected to hit fifth in the Houston lineup, and he can be used in all leagues tonight.

Nicky Lopez

I nearly went with Corey Seager or JP Crawford at this slot, but I decided to take the salary relief with Lopez. He continues to play at a high level for the Kansas City Royals, recording a .349 average with 4 extra-base hits (1 home run), 4 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over his last 10 games. Lopez is hitting second in the Kansas City lineup, and he gets a solid matchup against Michael Pineda tonight. He’s been one of the most underpriced players on the entire slate for quite some time, and he’s a great salary relief option tonight.

OF

Chicago White Sox

Unsurprisingly, the White Sox feature a few great options in the outfield tonight. Luis Robert is the top option as their leadoff hitter. Eloy Jimenez hasn’t found a ton of success in recent games, but he’s far too cheap for his upside. Leury Garcia is another salary relief option, and he’s found plenty of success in recent games. He’s likely to hit later in the lineup, though, limiting his upside a bit. Andrew Vaughn can also be considered, but he’s in a tier below the other options.

Jorge Soler

Soler continues to find success for the Atlanta Braves, and his price tag never really moves up. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting for .293 average with a .488 slugging percentage and a .813 OPS. He boasts 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 5 RBIs in those games. Soler gets an interesting matchup against Elieser Hernandez, and he’ll continue to hit second in the Atlanta lineup. He can be considered in all leagues tonight.

Houston Astros

The Houston outfield is extremely interesting tonight. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are two lefties that come with extremely high price tags. Either can be used on this slate because of their talent, as I’m not expecting Suarez to find much success against the Houston offense. With that being said, we can grab a few lower owned options in their offense tonight. Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick are expected to draw starts in this game, and they both come with extremely low price tags. They are solid salary relief options in tournaments tonight.

Seattle Mariners

Mitch Haniger’s been struggling in recent games, although he should be able to take advantage of a great matchup against Humberto Castellanos and the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen. He’s a top option, hitting second in the Seattle offense. The other player that sticks out is Jarred Kelenic. He comes with plenty of upside against right-handed pitching, and this is also a matchup he can take advantage of. The only downfall is that he’s hitting later in the Seattle lineup. Jose Marmolejos can also be considered, but he isn’t one of the better options on this slate.

 

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DraftKings Team Stacks

DK MLB Stacks

FanDuel Team Stacks

FD MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

We have a decent eight-game slate tonight, but there aren’t a ton of stacks I love. Still, my five favorites are posted below.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

CHW – Robert/Moncada/Abreu/Jimenez/Grandal

HOU – Altuve/Bregman/Alvarez/Gurriel/Correa

SEA – Crawford/Haniger/Seager/France/Toro

ATL – Albies/Soler/Freeman/Riley/Duvall

MIN – Arraez/Buxton/Polanco/Donaldson/Kepler

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

CHW – Abreu/Jimenez/Grandal

HOU – Altuve/Bregman/Alvarez

ATL – Albies/Soler/Freeman

SEA – Crawford/Haniger/Seager

MIN – Polanco/Donaldson/Kepler

 

Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)

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