MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (9/1/21) - DFS Karma
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MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (9/1/21)

Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!

 

Vegas Overview – Below is an excerpt from our sister site, Bet Karma. It has daily player props, live trends (below), and much more! Access all odds, trends, and line movement for all sports here: BetKarma Live MLB Trends

Projections will be updated throughout the day. You can stay up to date on all of our latest projections by utilizing our FREE projections portal at DFS Karma.

NOTE: Tables are embedded in the breakdown and update LIVE. The various tables will update with starting lineups confirmation, when projections are edited in the projections portal(s), and every hour. If a table is showing an error message or is blank, please wait a moment and refresh the page and it should re-populate correctly. Thanks!

Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Gerrit Cole

As Ben and I mentioned on our daily MLB Podcast, Cole has the most ridiculous price tag on the entire slate. He’s throwing at an elite level, posting a 2.80 ERA with a 2.84 xFIP and a 34.3% strikeout rate through 24 starts. He’s posted 25+ DK points in 3 consecutive games while flashing 50 DK point upside in a recent start. Cole gets a plus matchup against the Los Angeles Angels, who own a .302 team wOBA and a 22.7% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. He’s a -280 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs. Cole’s a lock on DraftKings, and he can be used on FanDuel, as well.

Max Scherzer

As you can see on my Pitchers Chart below, Scherzer’s another pitcher that’s been enjoying an elite season. Through 24 starts, he boasts a 2.51 ERA with a 3.31 xFIP and a 34.6% strikeout rate. He’s posted 20+ DK points in 8 of his last 10 starts, including a 38.9 DK point performance against the San Diego Padres. Scherzer gets an interesting matchup against the Atlanta Braves, who’ve posted a .311 team wOBA and a 21.4% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. He’s a -195 favorite in a game set at 7.5 runs, and Scherzer can be used in all leagues.

Aaron Nola

Nola’s another high-priced option that can be considered on this slate. He’s due for positive regression, as his 4.30 ERA sits well above his 3.41 xFIP this season. He also owns a 29.5% strikeout rate through 26 starts. Nola gets an interesting matchup against the Washington Nationals tonight. They quietly own a .333 team wOBA with a 21% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. With that being said, they aren’t an offense I’m going to be scared away from, especially with an elite pitcher. Nola’s a -160 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, and he can be considered in all leagues on this slate.

NOTE: The Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals game has been postponed.

Other GPP Targets: Chris Sale, Carlos Rodon, Kevin Gausman, Max Fried, Steven Matz, Joe Ryan

Top DraftKings Batters

MLB Top Batters

Top FanDuel Batters

FD MLB Top Batters

Batters

C

Yasmani Grandal

If you’re spending up at catcher, you’re choosing between Grandal and Sal Perez. With Grandal costing $700 less on DraftKings, he’s my preferred target. He’s been playing at an elite level since returning from injury, recording 5 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 11 RBIs over only 4 games. Grandal gets an elite matchup against Mitch Keller, who’s struggled against left-handed batters this season. The Chicago White Sox catcher is expected to hit fifth in their lineup tonight, and he’s an elite option if you can get to his price tag on this slate.

Austin Hedges

If you’re looking to punt catcher, Hedges could be the best option. He’s been successful in recent games, posting a .242 average with a .515 slugging percentage and a .839 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 5 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 5 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over that span. Hedges gets a matchup against Mike Minor, and he brings .050 wOBA and .119 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game. He’s expected to hit late in the Cleveland offense, but he’s far too cheap for his upside, making him an elite punt option in all leagues.

1B

Ryan Mountcastle

Mountcastle’s been playing at an elite level over his last 10 games, recording a .308 average with a .744 slugging percentage and a 1.121 OPS. He owns 7 extra-base hits (5 home runs) and 9 RBIs in those games. Mountcastle gets a great matchup against Steven Matz, and he boasts a .367 wOBA and a .264 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. He’s expected to hit second in the Baltimore Orioles lineup, and he’s an elite option in all leagues on this slate.

Luke Voit

Voit quietly owns a .348 average with a .696 slugging percentage and a 1.119 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he boasts 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 7 RBIs. Voit gets a great matchup against Packy Naughton, and he’s been more consistent and more powerful against left-handed pitching throughout his career. He’s expected to hit sixth in the New York Yankees lineup, and he’s entirely too cheap on this slate.

2B

Whit Merrifield

Merrifield’s caught fire in recent games for the Kansas City Royals. He’s posted a .364 average with a .636 slugging percentage and a 1.032 OPS over his last 10 games. He’s recorded 7 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 10 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases in those contests. Merrifield gets a plus matchup against Logan Allen, and he boasts .048 wOBA and .036 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching this season. He’s leading off for Kansas City, and he’s still cheap enough to make an elite option in all leagues on this slate.

Jorge Polanco

Polanco’s price is increasing, although he’s still one of the more underpriced players on the slate. Over his last 10 games, he owns a .308 average with a .615 slugging percentage and a .949 OPS. He boasts 6 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 11 RBIs in those games. Polanco gets an interesting matchup against Justin Steele tonight. He’s been slightly better against right-handed pitching, although he’s found plenty of success against lefties this season. Polanco’s hitting second in the Minnesota Twins lineup, and he can be considered in all leagues tonight.

3B

Yoan Moncada

If you can get to Jose Ramirez or Rafael Devers tonight, they are elite options. If not, dropping to Moncada is a viable route. He’s hitting for a .385 average with a .538 slugging percentage and a .993 OPS over his last 10 games. He’s posted 4 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 5 RBIs in those games. Moncada gets an elite matchup against Mitch Keller, who we’ve outlined struggles against left-handed batters (and righties). He’s expected to hit second in the Chicago White Sox lineup, and he can be used in all leagues tonight.

Josh Donaldson

Donaldson’s another Minnesota Twin who’s too cheap on this slate. He’s been playing well, recording a .333 average with a .833 slugging percentage and a 1.262 OPS over his last 10 games. In those contests, he’s posted 8 extra-base hits (5 home runs) and 10 RBIs. Donaldson gets a great matchup against Justin Steele, and he boasts a .366 wOBA and a .250 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. He’s expected to hit fourth in the Minnesota lineup, and he’s an elite option for a surprisingly low price tag on this slate.

Editor’s Note: Remember, you can sign up for all of our Core Plays here, or join our free Discord here.

SS

Bo Bichette

Bichette’s heating back up for the Toronto Blue Jays, posting a .310 average with a .452 slugging percentage and a .808 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 4 extra-base hits (1 home run), 4 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases in those games. Bichette gets an elite matchup against Matt Harvey, who’s struggled against right-handed batters in 2021. He’s expected to hit fourth in the Toronto lineup, and he’s an elite option in all leagues on this slate.

Josh Harrison

Shortstop is a relatively weak position tonight, but Harrison makes an interesting option if you need to save some salary. He’s playing at a high level, hitting for a .325 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .841 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns 5 extra-base hits (1 home run), 6 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases. Harrison gets a great matchup against Wily Peralta, and he’s expected to hit fifth in the Oakland A’s lineup. He’s the top salary relief option at this position.

OF

Toronto Blue Jays

It’s many of the same outfields in this article again, but when the matchups are this good, it’s almost impossible to avoid. Matt Harvey’s struggled throughout the 2021 season, and the Blue Jays are a top offense again. George Springer continues to be the best option, while Teoscar Hernandez boasts elite upside. Corey Dickerson’s price tag is entirely too cheap, and he makes a great salary relief option in all leagues. Jarrod Dyson can be considered for his price if he’s in the starting lineup, as well.

New York Yankees

The Yankees are a simple offense. Aaron Judge is the top option followed by Giancarlo Stanton. Both have found plenty of success in recent games, and they can be used in all leagues. Joey Gallo also comes with elite upside, especially in a matchup against a weak pitcher. He can also be considered in all leagues, although I slightly prefer him in GPPs.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have several outfielders that can be considered with two standing above the rest. Luis Robert is the best option, as he’s leading off and far too cheap for his talent. Eloy Jimenez can also be considered in all leagues tonight. Brian Goodwin’s expected to hit sixth. He’s best suited for GPPs, although he can be used in cash games if you’re in a tough spot. Leury Garica’s the final option, and he’s a great salary relief play in tournaments.

Rob Refsnyder

Refsnyder’s been struggling a bit recently, posting a .167 average without any added starts over his last 10 games. With that being said, he gets a plus matchup against Justin Steele, and he enters this game with a .364 wOBA and a .119 ISO against left-handed pitching. Refsnyder’s expected to hit third in the Minnesota Twins lineup, and he can be considered in all leagues as a salary relief option.

 

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DraftKings Team Stacks

DK MLB Stacks

FanDuel Team Stacks

FD MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

We have a larger slate tonight, although a couple of games have already been postponed for weather. Below are my five favorites stacks for tonight.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

TOR – Springer/Semien/Guerrero/Bichette/Hernandez

CHW – Robert/Moncada/Abreu/Jimenez/Grandal

NYY – LeMahieu/Rizzo/Judge/Stanton/Gallo

MIN – Buxton/Polanco/Refsnyder/Donaldson/Rooker

OAK – Kemp/Marte/Olson/Lowrie/Harrison

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

TOR – Springer/Semien/Guerrero

CHW – Robert/Abreu/Jimenez

NYY – Judge/Stanton/Gallo

MIN – Buxton/Polanco/Donaldson

OAK – Marte/Olson/Harrison

 

Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)

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