Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!
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Pitching
MLB DK Pitcher Table
Freddy Peralta
There are two clear-cut top options on this slate with Peralta leading the way. He’s enjoying an outstanding season, posting a 2.21 ERA with a 3.66 xFIP and a 34.5% strikeout rate through 21 games (20 starts). He’s seen mixed results in recent games, although he’s posted 20+ DK points in each of his last 2 starts. Peralta gets an elite matchup against the Chicago Cubs, who sold several offensive pieces at the deadline. They’re striking out at the highest rate on the slate by a wide margin, adding to Peralta’s upside. He’s a -202 favorite in a game set at 9 runs tonight, and he’s the top option on this slate.
Joe Musgrove
Musgrove’s another option who’s been throwing at a high level on the season. Through 22 games (21 starts), he boasts a 2.87 ERA with a 3.50 xFIP and a 27.9% strikeout rate. He’s posted 15+ DK points in 4 of his last 5 starts, including a 39.4 DK point performance against the Colorado Rockies. Musgrove gets a plus matchup against the Miami Marlins in San Diego tonight, as well. He’s a -236 favorite in a game set at only 7.5 runs. Musgrove is the obvious SP2 option, as he’s an elite pair with Peralta in cash games on this smaller slate.
Jameson Taillon
Taillon’s price took a massive dip because of this slate, and that’s something we can take advantage of. He’s seen mixed results this season, recording a 4.04 ERA with a 4.56 xFIP and a 24.1% strikeout rate through 21 starts. Taillon’s been heating up, as well, averaging 22.8 DK points per game over his last 6 starts. He gets a great matchup against a struggling Kansas City Royals offense. Taillon’s currently a -168 favorite in a game set at 10 runs. He certainly comes with risk, but he’s an outstanding salary relief option in tournaments on this slate.
Other GPP Targets: Luis Castillo, Lucas Giolito
Top DraftKings Batters
MLB Top Batters
Top FanDuel Batters
FD MLB Top Batters
Batters
C
Omar Narvaez
Narvaez is the top option at catcher by a wide margin. He’s been playing well in recent games, posting a .256 average with a .462 slugging percentage and a .764 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 7 RBIs in those games. Narvaez gets a great matchup against Alec Mills with the wind blowing out in Chicago tonight. He enters this game with .101 wOBA and .060 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching this season. Narvaez is expected to hit fifth in the Milwaukee Brewers lineup, and he’s a great option in all leagues.
Tucker Barnhart
If you need to save a bit of money here, Barnhart is an interesting option. He owns a .194 average with 2 home runs and 6 RBIs over his last 10 games. Barnhart gets a great matchup against Sam Hentges tonight, although he’s been significantly worse against left-handed pitching this season. Still, I don’t expect Hentges to find much success in this game, meaning Barnhart will see plenty of the Cleveland bullpen in this game. He’s only expected to hit ninth in the Cincinnati Reds lineup, but he’s a cheap way to get a piece of one of my favorite offenses on this slate.
1B
Luke Voit
Voit’s struggled with injuries throughout the season, missing multiple stints at this point. He was on fire before his last injury, hitting for a .294 average with 2 extra-base hits and 4 RBIs over his last 10 games. Voit comes with far too low of a price tag for his upside in nearly any matchup. He gets a great one against Carlos Hernandez tonight, though. Voit’s expected to hit fifth in the New York Yankees lineup, and he can be considered in all leagues if you aren’t going to the top of first base tonight.
Rowdy Tellez
Tellez continues to be underpriced for the Milwaukee Brewers. He owns a .294 average with a .529 slugging percentage and a .881 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he’s recorded 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 7 RBIs. Tellez gets an elite matchup against Alec Mills in Chicago tonight. He’s been a reverse splits hitter this season, although he owns more power against right-handed pitching throughout his career. Simply put, Tellez is far too cheap in this particular matchup.
2B
Jonathan India
There are several elite options at second base, and I break down the entire position in our MLB Podcast. India is a great option at the position, posting a .333 average with a .786 slugging percentage and a 1.202 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 9 extra-base hits (5 home runs) and 9 RBIs in those contests. Although India’s been better against right-handed pitching, he gets a great matchup against Sam Hentges tonight. India’s leading off for arguably my favorite offense on the slate, and he can be used in all leagues.
Whit Merrifield
Merrifield is one of the most interesting options tonight. He hasn’t shown any power in recent games, although he’s flashed plenty of speed over his last 10 games. Merrifield’s hitting for a .283 average with a .439 slugging percentage and a .769 OPS through 53 home games. He’s been better in Kansas City, and he gets an interesting matchup against Jameson Taillon tonight. Merrifield’s leading off for the Royals, and he’s a $5k player, even if he hasn’t found that success this season. Overall, Merrifield’s far too cheap for his upside, and he makes an elite option on this slate.
3B
Eduardo Escobar
Escobar continues to be a high upside option for the Milwaukee Brewers. He’s posted a .250 average with a .528 slugging percentage and a .885 OPS over his last 10 games. In those contests, he owns 5 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 6 RBIs. Escobar’s flashed tremendous upside throughout the season, and he gets a great matchup against Alec Mills in Chicago tonight. The wind is blowing out, and Escobar’s hitting fourth in the Milwaukee lineup. This position is one of the weaker ones on the slate, but Escobar’s a top option.
Rougned Odor
Odor’s been struggling in recent games, recording a .206 average with 1 home run and 5 RBIs over his last 10 games. With that being said, he comes with solid upside on a nightly basis. Odor gets a great matchup against Carlos Hernandez tonight. He’s been better against left-handed pitching this season, although he owns a .312 wOBA and a .217 ISO against right-handed pitching throughout his career. Odor’s only expected to hit seventh in the New York Yankees lineup, but he makes a solid salary relief option on this slate.
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SS
Willy Adames
Adames’ found tremendous success with the Milwaukee Brewers. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting for a .302 average with a .674 slugging percentage and a 1.008 OPS. He boasts 8 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 6 RBIs in those contests. Adames is hitting second in the Milwaukee Brewers lineup, and he gets a great matchup against Alec Mills tonight. He’ll benefit from playing in one of the more hitter-friendly stadiums in the MLB (with the wind blowing out), and he can be used in all leagues if you have extra money at this position.
Kyle Farmer
Farmer’s an elite option in all leagues for his current price tag. He’s been one of the hotter hitters in the MLB, recording a .372 average with a .558 slugging percentage and a .945 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he’s posted 5 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 8 RBIs. Farmer gets a great matchup against Sam Hentges, and he’s one of the Cincinnati Reds that’s better against left-handed pitching. He’s expected to hit sixth in the Cincinnati lineup, and he can be used in all leagues tonight.
OF
Nick Castellanos
Castellanos is probably the most mispriced player on the entire slate. He’s far too cheap for his talent, and he’s averaging 8 DK points per game since returning from injury. Castellanos gets a great matchup against Sam Hentges, and he enters this game with a .374 wOBA and a .239 ISO against left-handed pitching. He’s expected to hit third in the Cincinnati Reds lineup, and he makes an elite option in all leagues tonight.
New York Yankees
New York is expected to utilize four outfielders tonight, although only three should truly be considered tonight. Aaron Judge comes with elite power, especially against bad pitching. Although he’s been relatively cold, he’s an outstanding option. Joey Gallo is another high-priced option that can be considered on this slate. He also boasts elite power, and he comes with tremendous upside. Giancarlo Stanton’s been the best hitter of the group in recent games, and he’s cheap enough to be considered in all leagues on this slate.
Myles Straw
Straw continues to play well for the Cleveland Indians, recording a .310 average with a .405 slugging percentage and a .730 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 2 extra-base hits (1 home run), 4 RBIs, and 4 stolen bases over that span. Straw gets a tough matchup against Luis Castillo, but he’s leading off for Cleveland tonight. He isn’t a safe option, but he’s near the minimum price, making him a great tournament option.
Luis Roberts
Roberts could potentially return to the Chicago White Sox lineup tonight. He was playing at an elite level prior to his injury, posting a .316 average with a .463 slugging percentage and a .822 OPS over 25 games. He posted 11 extra-base hits (1 home run), 8 RBIs, and 4 stolen bases. Roberts gets a plus matchup against the Minnesota Twins, who are expected to use Charlie Burnes as a long reliever tonight. He’s tentatively expected to hit sixth in the White Sox lineup, making him an elite option for his price tag.
Stacks
“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen
Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch
DraftKings Team Stacks
DK MLB Stacks
FanDuel Team Stacks
FD MLB Stacks
“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)
Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.
When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.
There are only five games tonight, leaving plenty to be desired in terms of stacks. Still, my five favorites are listed below.
DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas
CIN – India/Winker/Castellanos/Votto/Farmer
MIL – Wong/Adames/Yelich/Escobar/Narvaez
CHW – Anderson/Hernandez/Abreu/Jimenez/Robert
NYY – LaMahieu/Judge/Gallo/Stanton/Voit
KC – Merrifield/Santana/Perez/Benintendi/O’Hearn
DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas
CIN – India/Castellanos/Votto
MIL – Adames/Escobar/Narvaez
CHW – Abreu/Jimenez/Robert
NYY – Judge/Gallo/Stanton
KC – Merrifield/Perez/Benintendi
Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)
