Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!
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Pitching
MLB DK Pitcher Table
Brandon Woodruff
I’m putting a massive emphasis on spending up at pitcher tonight, and it begins with Woodruff. Through 21 starts, he boasts a 2.26 ERA with a 2.99 xFIP and a 30% strikeout rate. Woodruff’s been significantly more inconsistent in recent games, although he’s posted 21+ DK points in 6 of his last 10 starts, flashing 30+ DK point upside. He gets an interesting matchup against the San Francisco Giants tonight. They boast a pesky offense with plenty of strikeout potential, as they rank second on the slate in strikeout percentage (25.5%) over the last 14 days. Woodruff’s a -150 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, and he can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Yu Darvish
Darvish has been ice cold in recent starts, although he’s flashed 35+ DK point upside in a tough matchup recently. Overall, he enters this game with a 3.48 ERA to go along with a 3.86 xFIP and a 29% strikeout rate through 21 starts. Darvish has been drastically better at home, though, and he gets a great matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have struggled at times on the road. He’s currently a -284 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, making him a priority on this slate.
Charlie Morton
This final selection came down to Morton and Jose Berrios with the former ultimately being chosen. Through 22 starts, he owns a 3.69 ERA with a 3.50 xFIP and a 27.8% strikeout rate. Morton’s also been getting better, averaging 21 DK points per game over his last 9 starts. Over that span, he’s posted 30+ DK points in 3 games, flashing near 40 DK point upside. He gets a great matchup against a watered-down Washington Nationals offense tonight. Morton is a -242 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, and he’s an outstanding option in all leagues.
Other GPP Targets: Jose Berrios, Julio Urias, Luis Garcia, Eli Morgan, Shane McClanahan
Top DraftKings Batters
MLB Top Batters
Top FanDuel Batters
FD MLB Top Batters
Batters
C
Will Smith
Smith’s cooled off a bit in recent games, but he’s still found plenty of success over his last 10 contests. Over that span, he’s hitting for a .257 average with a .600 slugging percentage and a .966 OPS. He boasts 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 9 RBIs in those contests. Smith gets a solid matchup against Jaime Barria, who’s struggled in limited innings this season. Smith isn’t going to come cheap, but he’s expected to hit sixth in one of the best offenses on the slate. He’s a player that can be used in all leagues.
Elias Diaz
Diaz is another catch that’s caught fire in recent games. He’s hitting for a .314 average with a .800 slugging percentage and a 1.168 OPS over his last 10 contests. Overall, he owns 7 extra-base hits (5 home runs) and 9 RBIs in those games. Diaz has been significantly better in Coors this season, and he gets a plus matchup against Jesus Luzardo at home tonight. Although he’s been better against right-handed pitching this season, he’s flashed power against lefties, as well. Diaz isn’t cheap anymore, and he’s expected to hit seventh in the Colorado Rockies lineup, but it’s impossible to ignore his recent power surge against a pitcher that’s giving up 2.51 HR/9 this season.
1B
Joey Votto
Votto isn’t the scorching hot bat he was a few days ago, but he’s still one of the hotter hitters in the MLB, and it’s difficult to avoid him in a good matchup. He’s posted a .289 average with a .947 slugging percentage and a 1.325 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 9 extra-base hits (8 home runs) and 16 RBIs over that span. Votto boasts a .448 wOBA and a .331 ISO in Cincinnati against right-handed pitching, and he gets a plus matchup against Mitch Keller tonight. He’s one of the most expensive options on the slate, but he continues to make a great play.
CJ Cron
Cron’s another Colorado Rockie that’s performed well in recent games, posting a .273 average with a .485 slugging percentage and a .853 OPS over his last 10 contests. He owns 3 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 8 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over that span. Cron gets a great matchup against Jesus Luzardo, who’s struggled with home runs throughout the 2021 season. The Rockies first baseman owns a .382 wOBA and a .236 ISO against left-handed pitching this season, and he’s a great option in all leagues tonight.
2B
Mookie Betts
I wasn’t prepared for Betts to be second base eligible, but we can take advantage of that. He’s been playing at an elite level, even before his injury. Overall, he’s recorded a .500 average with a 1.079 slugging percentage and a 1.635 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 10 extra-base hits (6 home runs) and 12 RBIs in those games. Betts has looked elite since returning from injury, as well, averaging 16 DK points per game in his 4 games back. He gets a solid matchup against Jaime Barria, and he’s an elite option in all leagues, especially at a position that generally lacks true upside.
Brendan Rodgers
Rodgers continues to be one of the most underpriced players on the slate. He’s hitting for a .372 average with a .651 slugging percentage and a 1.064 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 6 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 7 RBIs in those contests. Rodgers boasts a .441 wOBA and a .382 ISO against left-handed pitching, and he gets a plus matchup against Jesus Luzardo tonight. Rodgers is hitting near the top of the Colorado Rockies order, and he can continue to be in all leagues until DraftKings raises his price tag.
3B
Aledmys Diaz
Diaz continues to come with one of the most ridiculous price tags on the entire slate. He owns a .268 average with a .537 slugging percentage and a .839 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 8 RBIs in those contests. Although he’s struggled at home, he gets a plus matchup against Michael Pineda tonight. He’s expected to hit sixth in the Houston Astros lineup, making him an elite salary relief option on this slate.
Manny Machado
If you’re spending up at third base, Machado is an option to consider. He’s posted a .375 average with a .725 slugging percentage and a 1.130 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 6 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 8 RBIs over that span. Machado also gets a great matchup against Taylor Widener, although he’s struggled at times in San Diego this season. Regardless, he’s hitting third in the San Diego Padres offense, and he can be used in all leagues if you have the salary at this position.
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SS
Trevor Story
Story’s someone that has to be considered whenever he’s playing at home against left-handed pitching. He’s been playing at a high level, recording a .324 average with a .757 slugging percentage and a 1.162 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns 10 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 8 RBIs. Story boasts a .395 wOBA and a .220 ISO at home against left-handed pitching this season. He gets a great matchup against Jesus Luzardo, and he’s an elite option in all leagues on this slate.
Miguel Rojas
Rojas hasn’t been playing at quite the level of others in this article, but he’s found plenty of success in recent games because of his versatility. Over his last 10 contests, he’s hitting for a .237 average with a .421 slugging percentage and a .696 OPS. He boasts 4 extra-base hits (1 home run), 1 RBI, and 2 stolen bases. Rojas gets an interesting matchup against Austin Gomber, and he enters this game with a .401 wOBA and a .144 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. He’s leading off for the Miami Marlins, and he’s a solid option in all leagues.
OF
Jesse Winker
Winker continues to be a top option in the outfield, posting a .297 average with a .622 slugging percentage and a 1.056 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns 8 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 5 RBIs. He gets a great matchup against Mitch Keller, and he brings .203 wOBA and .213 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game. Winker’s hitting second in the Cincinnati Reds lineup, and he can be used in all leagues. Nick Castellanos is also an elite option for the Reds tonight.
Myles Straw
Straw continues to be grossly underpriced, especially for his new role as the Cleveland Indians lead-off hitter. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting for a .275 average with a .400 slugging percentage and a .693 OPS. He boasts 3 extra-base hits (1 home run), 6 RBIs, and 4 stolen bases over that span, as well. Straw gets a great matchup against Tyler Alexander, and he’s a player that can contribute fantasy points in several different ways. He can be used in all leagues for his ridiculous price tag.
Adam Frazier
Frazier hasn’t been playing well in recent games, posting a .225 average with 2 extra-base hits and 1 RBI over his last 10 games. With that being said, he’s expected to lead off for the San Diego Padres in a great matchup against Taylor Widener tonight. Although he hasn’t flashed in recent games, Frazier comes with plenty of upside in the San Diego lineup, and he’s far too cheap for his talent.
Austin Meadows
Meadows has seen mixed results in recent games, posting a .256 average with a .590 slugging percentage and a .899 OPS over his last 10 contests. He owns 5 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 10 RBIs in those games. Meadows gets a great matchup against Spenser Watkins tonight, and he enters this game with .118 wOBA and .237 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching this season. He’s hitting fourth in the Tampa Bay Rays lineup, and he can be used in all leagues in this matchup.
Stacks
“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen
Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch
DraftKings Team Stacks
DK MLB Stacks
FanDuel Team Stacks
FD MLB Stacks
“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)
Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.
When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.
We have another sizeable slate with 11 games tonight. Keep in mind, the Boston/Toronto game is only seven innings. There are still several elite stacks on this slate, and below are my five favorites.
DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas
CIN – India/Winker/Castellanos/Votto/Farmer
COL – Rodgers/Story/Blackmon/Cron/Diaz
LAD – Betts/Muncy/Turner/Seager/Turner
TB – Lowe/Choi/Cruz/Meadows/Franco
CLE – Straw/Rosario/Ramirez/Reyes/Ramirez
DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas
CIN – Winker/Castellanos/Votto
COL – Rodgers/Story/Cron
LAD – Betts/Muncy/Turner
ATL – Pederson/Albies/Freeman
TB – Lowe/Cruz/Meadows
Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)
