Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!
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Pitching
MLB DK Pitcher Table
Shohei Ohtani
There are several solid options at the top of pitcher tonight with Ohtani leading the way. Through 15 starts, he boasts a 3.04 ERA with a 3.66 xFIP and a 30.1% strikeout rate. Ohtani’s been a consistent option on the mound this season, and he gets an elite matchup against the Texas Rangers. Over the last 14 days, Texas owns a slate-low .266 wOBA as an offense. They strike out at an average rate, and Ohtani should see plenty of opportunities to score fantasy points against one of the weakest lineups in the MLB. He’s a -173 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, and he’s an elite option in all leagues.
Max Scherzer
DraftKings fell asleep at the wheeler with Scherzer in his Los Angeles Dodgers debut. He’s a pitcher that should never dip below $10k, and he’s been over $11k this season. Yet, he’s only $9.1k tonight. Scherzer’s been elite, posting a 2.76 ERA with a 3.46 xFIP and a slate-high 34.3% strikeout rate through 19 starts. He gets a terrible matchup against the Houston Astros, who feature one of the best offenses in the MLB. With that being said, I favor elite pitching over hot bats, and Scherzer is entirely too cheap on this slate. He’s a -217 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, and he can be used in all leagues on this slate.
Kolby Allard
If you want to spend down at your SP2, Allard’s a solid option. He’s due for a bit of positive regression, as his 5.23 ERA sits well above his 4.28 xFIP. He also owns a 21.6% strikeout rate through 21 games (11 starts). More importantly, Allard gets an elite matchup against the Los Angeles Angels, who own a .280 team wOBA over the last 14 days. They’ve been struggling as an offense, opening the door for Allard as a salary relief option. He’s currently a +158 underdog in a game set at 8 runs, and he’s a solid salary relief option as your SP2 in GPPs.
Other GPP Targets: Lucas Giolito, Kevin Gausman, Eduardo Rodriguez, Zac Gallen, Zach Thompson, Jameson Taillon
Top DraftKings Batters
MLB Top Batters
Top FanDuel Batters
FD MLB Top Batters
Batters
C
J.T. Realmuto
Realmuto’s been one of the hottest catchers in the MLB in recent games, posting a .310 average with a .524 slugging percentage and a .849 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 5 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 10 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases over that span. Realmuto gets a great matchup against Paolo Espino, who’s due for regression, and a weak Washington Nationals bullpen. He expected to hit fourth in the Philadelphia Phillies lineup, and he’s an elite spend-up option at this position tonight.
Kevan Smith
If you want to punt catcher, look no further than Smith. He hasn’t been overly successful over his last 10 games, posting a .161 average with 2 extra-base hits. Throughout his career, Smith owns .043 wOBA and .041 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching, and he gets an elite matchup against J.A. Happ tonight. The latter’s struggled with home runs this season, and Smith comes with power against lefties. He’s only expected to hit eighth in the Atlanta Braves lineup, but he’s an elite punt option in this matchup.
1B
Anthony Rizzo
Rizzo continues to play at an elite level, finding success with his new team. He’s hitting for a .389 average with a .833 slugging percentage and a 1.311 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he boasts 6 extra-base hits (5 home runs) and 10 RBIs. Rizzo gets an elite matchup against Matt Harvey, who’s struggled against left-handed batters throughout his career. Surprisingly, Rizzo’s been better against left-handed pitching this season, although that hasn’t been the case throughout his career. He’s hitting fourth in the New York Yankees lineup, and he will continue to benefit from playing in one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums in the MLB. Rizzo is an elite option in all leagues.
Paul Goldschmidt
Goldschmidt’s seen mixed results in recent games, posting a .225 average with 3 extra-base hits (1 home run), 3 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over his last 10 games. He gets a great matchup against Drew Smyly tonight. Similar to Rizzo, Goldschmidt’s been better against the same handedness this season. With that being said, the Cardinals veteran owns a .416 wOBA and a .257 ISO against left-handed pitching. He’s expected to hit second in the St. Louis Cardinals lineup, but he’s best suited for tournaments because of his price tag.
2B
Ozzie Albies
There are several great options at second base tonight. Check out our MLB podcast or join our free Discord for more than these two recommendations! If you can spend up here, Albies makes the top option. He’s hitting for a .250 average with 2 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 3 RBIs over his last 10 games. Although he hasn’t been in his best form over that span, he gets an elite matchup against J.A. Happ tonight. The Atlanta Braves make one of the best stacks on the slate, and he’s expected to lead off for them tonight. He can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Brendan Rodgers
Rodgers is arguably the most mispriced player on the entire slate. He’s been playing at an elite level, recording a .310 average with a .667 slugging percentage and a 1.022 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 6 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 6 RBIs over that span. Rodgers has been surprisingly bad at home this season, but he gets a great matchup against Alec Mills tonight. Rodgers is hitting second in the Colorado Rockies lineup, and he’s arguably the top bat for his price tag on this slate.
3B
Rafael Devers
Devers continues to play at a high level for the Boston Red Sox. He’s hitting for a .333 average with a .615 slugging percentage and a .987 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 8 RBIs over that span. Devers gets an interesting matchup against Casey Mize, and he enters this game with a .408 wOBA and a .353 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. He isn’t going to come cheap, but he’s always a dominant option against righties.
Ryan McMahon
There are several great underpriced options at third base tonight, including the Chicago Cubs players. I’m siding with McMahon, who continues to be far too cheap, especially in this matchup. He’s been playing well in recent games, posting a .297 average with 3 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 7 RBIs over his last 10 games. He’s averaging 8.1 DK points per game in Coors this season, as well. McMahon gets a great matchup against Alec Mills, and he’s expected to hit fifth in the Colorado Rockies lineup. Similar to Rodgers, he’s entirely too cheap for playing in the offense with the highest implied team total on the slate.
Editor’s Note: Remember, you can sign up for all of our Core Plays here, or join our free Discord here.
SS
Chris Taylor
Taylor and Corey Seager can be used here at shortstop for the Los Angeles Dodgers. If you can get to Taylor, though, he’s an elite option. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting for a .318 average with a .636 slugging percentage and a .998 OPS. He boasts 7 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 7 RBIs, and 1 stolen base in those contests. Taylor gets a solid matchup against Jake Odorizzi, who’s struggled at times this season. He’s expected to hit second in the Los Angeles lineup, and he’s a great option if you have the extra salary for this position tonight.
Dansby Swanson
Swanson continues to be surprisingly cheap on a nightly basis, especially for this matchup. He owns a .289 average with a .579 slugging percentage and a .904 OPS over his last 10 games. He’s recorded 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 11 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over that span. Swanson’s been slightly more consistent against right-handed pitching this season, but he boasts more power against lefties. He gets an elite matchup against J.A. Happ, who’s struggled with home runs this season. Swanson can be used in all leagues on this slate.
OF
Chicago Cubs/Colorado Rockies
I recommended both outfields in the game last night, and I’m going back to the well again tonight. It’s an outstanding game environment for both sides, although I prefer Colorado to Chicago tonight. Charlie Blackmon, Raimel Tapia, and Rafael Ortega are in the top tier of options for this game. Ian Happ makes up the second tier. The final tier consists of Jason Heyward and Sam Hilliard. Anyone from this game can be used, but these are the clear tiers for me.
Joey Gallo
Gallo’s been ice cold in recent games, posting a .088 average over his last 10 games. He does own 3 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 3 RBIs in those contests. Gallo’s an absurdly powerful option that gets an elite matchup against Matt Harvey, who’s struggled against power lefties. Gallo’s expected to hit second in the New York Yankees lineup, and he’s an outstanding option on this slate. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are outstanding options, as well.
Travis Jankowski
Jankowski’s seen mixed results over his last 10 games, flashing upside at times. Overall, he owns a .267 average with 1 extra-base hit and 1 stolen base. More importantly, Jankowski’s expected to lead off for the Philadelphia Phillies. He gets a plus matchup against Paolo Espino, and he enters this game with .190 wOBA and .117 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. Jankowski only makes a great option if he’s leading off. He can be used for his price if he’s hitting later in the lineup, although he isn’t nearly as good of a play as if he’s hitting at the top of the order.
Juan Soto
Soto continues to find success, posting a .303 average with a .424 slugging percentage and a .902 OPS over his last 10 games. In those contests, he boasts 2 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 3 RBIs. Soto’s losing some RBI and run opportunities with Washington selling several players at the deadline. Still, he owns a .413 wOBA and a .178 ISO against right-handed pitching. Soto also gets an elite matchup against Chase Anderson tonight. He’s expensive, but he can be used in all leagues tonight.
Stacks
“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen
Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch
DraftKings Team Stacks
DK MLB Stacks
FanDuel Team Stacks
FD MLB Stacks
“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)
Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.
When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.
There is a solid 11 game slate tonight without many aces on the hill. That means there are several stacking options that we can take advantage of, and my five favorites are listed below.
DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas
COL – Tapia/Rodgers/Blackmon/Story/McMahon
LAD – Betts/Taylor/Turner/Muncy/Smith
ATL – Albies/Soler/Freeman/Riley/Swanson
NYY – LeMahieu/Gallo/Judge/Rizzo/Stanton
CHW – Anderson/Hernandez/Abreu/Moncada/Jimenez
DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas
COL – Tapia/Rodgers/Blackmon
ATL – Albies/Freeman/Riley
NYY – Gallo/Judge/Rizzo
LAD – Betts/Taylor/Muncy
CHW – Hernandez/Abreu/Jimenez
Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)
