MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (8/28/21) - DFS Karma
Connect with us

Baseball

MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (8/28/21)

Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!

 

Vegas Overview – Below is an excerpt from our sister site, Bet Karma. It has daily player props, live trends (below), and much more! Access all odds, trends, and line movement for all sports here: BetKarma Live MLB Trends

Projections will be updated throughout the day. You can stay up to date on all of our latest projections by utilizing our FREE projections portal at DFS Karma.

NOTE: Tables are embedded in the breakdown and update LIVE. The various tables will update with starting lineups confirmation, when projections are edited in the projections portal(s), and every hour. If a table is showing an error message or is blank, please wait a moment and refresh the page and it should re-populate correctly. Thanks!

Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Lance Lynn

Lynn continues to perform well, although he’s avoided regression for the entire season thus far. Through 23 starts, he owns a 2.20 ERA with a 3.95 xFIP and a 27.2% strikeout rate. He’s struggled with consistency in recent games, but he’s averaging 22 DK points per game at home this season. As you can see in the chart below, Lynn gets the best strikeout matchup on the slate. The Chicago Cubs are striking out at a ridiculous 28% rate over the last 14 days. They’ve also struggled with a .312 team wOBA over that span. Lynn’s a -277 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs tonight, and he’s the clear-cut SP1 in cash games.

Logan Webb

Webb’s an ace but no one’s treating him like one at this point. As you can see above, he owns a 2.84 ERA with a slate-low 2.83 xFIP and a 26.4% strikeout rate through 19 games (18 starts). He’s posted 20+ DK points in 4 consecutive starts, averaging 26.7 DK points per game in those contests. Webb gets a terrible matchup against the Atlanta Braves, who have been one of the hotter offenses in the MLB. He’s currently a +103 underdog in a game set at 8.5 runs. Webb’s Vegas line could keep his ownership low, and he’s an outstanding tournament option, especially with plenty of ownership shifting to Lynn.

Huascar Ynoa

Ynoa’s only thrown in 11 games (10 starts) this season, but he’s looked outstanding. He boasts a 2.89 ERA with a 3.15 xFIP and a 28.4% strikeout rate. He’s posted 18+ DK points in 8 of his last 10 games, flashing 30 DK point upside. Ynoa gets an interesting matchup against the San Francisco Giants, who have struggled with a .302 team wOBA over the last 14 days. They don’t strike out at a high rate, although it sits at 22.8% over that span. Ynoa’s a -111 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs tonight. He’s surprisingly cheap on this slate, and he can be considered in all leagues.

Other GPP Targets: Framber Valdez, Marcus Stroman, David Price, Jon Gray, Adam Wainwright

Top DraftKings Batters

MLB Top Batters

Top FanDuel Batters

FD MLB Top Batters

Batters

C

Mike Zunino

Zunino could be one of the most obvious options on this slate over the last month at this position. He’s been playing at an elite level, posting a .303 average with a .939 slugging percentage and a 1.263 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 8 extra-base hits (6 home runs) and 11 RBIs over that span. Zunino gets an elite matchup against John Means, who’s struggled with home runs this season. The Rays catcher enters this game with a .524 wOBA and a .533 ISO against left-handed pitching. He’s only expected to hit eighth in the Tampa Bay lineup, but he’s an elite option in all leagues in this matchup.

Austin Nola

If you need to save a bit of salary here, Nola is someone to consider. He’s been struggling, recording a .189 average with 2 extra-base hits and 4 RBIs over his last 10 games. Nola gets an interesting matchup against Jose Suarez tonight, though, as he owns a .368 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. More importantly, he’s expected to hit fifth in the San Diego Padres offense, giving him plenty of opportunities to score fantasy points. Nola’s far too cheap for his situation, and he’s a great salary relief option tonight.

1B

Nelson Cruz

Cruz failed to produce last night, but I’m going back to the well tonight. He’s hitting for a .250 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .795 OPS over his last 10 games. He recorded 4 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 10 RBIs in those contests. Cruz brings a .401 wOBA and a .231 ISO against left-handed pitching, and he gets an elite matchup against John Means tonight. The Tampa Bay Rays are one of the top offenses, and Cruz is expected to hit second in their lineup. He’s surprisingly cheap, and he can be used in all leagues.

Paul Goldschmidt 

Goldschmidt continues to play at an elite level for the St. Louis Cardinals, although he’s finally priced as one of the hottest hitting first basemen in the MLB. Over his last 10 games, he owns a .405 average with a .810 slugging percentage and a 1.254 OPS. Goldschmidt posted 10 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 6 RBIs, and 1 stolen base in those games. More importantly, he gets a great matchup against Steven Brault tonight, and he’s been a more consistent option against left-handed pitching this season. Goldschmidt’s hitting in the heart of the St. Louis offense, and he can be considered in all leagues if you can get to his price tag tonight. 

2B

Mookie Betts

Betts recently returned to the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, and we’re getting him at a bit of a discount on this slate. Overall, he was on fire before getting injured, posting a .421 average with 8 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 6 RBIs over his last 10 games. Betts hasn’t posted massive numbers since returning, causing his price tag to dip a bit. He gets a solid matchup against Jon Gray, though, and he’s expected to hit third in the Los Angeles lineup. The simple answer to Betts is that he should be arguably the most expensive option at second base tonight, and we can easily slide him into our lineups because he isn’t.

Kolten Wong

Wong’s significantly cheaper, and he’s been on fire. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting for a .361 average with a .639 slugging percentage and a 1.091 OPS. He owns 5 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 10 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over that span. Wong gets a great matchup against Charlie Barnes tonight, and he quietly boasts .046 wOBA and .030 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching in 2021. He’s expected to lead off for the Milwaukee Brewers, making him an elite option for under $4k.

3B

Nolan Arenado

Arenado continues to struggle, recording a .143 average with a .262 slugging percentage and a .444 OPS over his last 10 games. He posted 3 extra-base hits (1 home run), 6 RBIs, and 1 stolen base in those contests. With that being said, Arenado gets a great matchup against Steven Brault tonight. He boasts a .386 wOBA and a .319 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Arenado’s hitting fourth in the St. Louis Cardinals lineup, and he’s a great option in this matchup.

Luis Urias

Urias’ seen mixed results in recent games, as he’s hitting for a .235 average with 1 home run and 2 RBIs over his last 10 games. He gets an elite matchup against Charlie Barnes, and he owns .052 wOBA and .037 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching throughout his career. Urias is expected to hit fifth in the Milwaukee Brewers lineup, and he’s too cheap for this matchup. He can be used in all leagues on this slate.

Editor’s Note: Remember, you can sign up for all of our Core Plays here, or join our free Discord here.

SS

Wander Franco

Franco continues to play at an elite level for the Tampa Bay Rays, posting a .400 average with a .650 slugging percentage and a 1.105 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he boasts 8 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 7 RBIs. Franco gets a great matchup against John Means, and he quietly enters this game with .119 wOBA and .097 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. He’s expected to hit third in the Tampa Bay offense, and he’s an elite option in all leagues on this slate.

Willy Adames

Adames continues to be a bit underpriced, especially on this slate. He’s posted a .281 average with a .469 slugging percentage and a .847 OPS over his last 10 games. In those contests, he recorded 4 extra-base hits (1 home run), 2 RBIs, and 1 stolen base. Adames gets an elite matchup against Charlie Barnes, who’s the worst starting pitcher on the slate. Assuming he’s in the lineup, Adames is expected to hit second, and he’s an elite option in all leagues tonight.

OF

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays have three outstanding outfield options with two that hit left-handed pitching extremely well. Randy Arozarena’s expected to lead off for Tampa Bay tonight, and he’s the top option. Manuel Margot is an extremely powerful hitter, who will benefit from a matchup against John Means, who continues to struggle with home runs. Austin Meadows is significantly better against right-handed pitching, although the Tampa Bay offense is in a good enough spot that he can be considered in GPPs on this slate.

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee has three outfielders that can be considered for different prices tonight. Christian Yelich is the most expensive, and he’s the best option of the group, as he’s caught fire in recent games. Avisail Garcia’s also been playing at a high level, and he’s the second-best play, as he’ll likely be hitting fourth in their lineup. Lorenzo Cain’s extremely cheap, and he can be considered, as well, because of his price tag.

Luis Robert

Robert’s price tag continues to be one of the most confusing parts of slates with the Chicago White Sox. He’s hitting for a .409 average with a .614 slugging percentage and a 1.060 OPS over his last 10 games. He recorded 5 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 7 RBIs, and 1 stolen base in those contests. Robert gets a plus matchup against Alec Mills, and he boasts an elite combination of speed and power, giving him elite upside. He’s hitting second in the Chicago White Sox lineup, and he’s an elite option for less than $4k tonight. 

Justin Upton

Upton’s cooled off in recent games, posting a .139 average with a .306 slugging percentage and a .490 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 2 home runs, 6 RBIs, and 1 stolen base in those contests. Upton gets a great matchup against Ryan Weathers tonight, though, and he boasts .080 wOBA and .083 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching this season. He’s hitting third in the Los Angeles Angels lineup, and he’s a bit too cheap for this matchup.

 

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DraftKings Team Stacks

DK MLB Stacks

FanDuel Team Stacks

FD MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

We have a decent-sized slate tonight with a few great pitchers on the mound. Still, there are plenty of stacking options, and my five favorites are listed below.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

MIL – Wong/Adames/Yelich/Garica/Urias

TB – Arozarena/Cruz/Franco/Diaz/Zunino

CHW – Anderson/Robert/Abreu/Jimenez/Grandal

HOU – Altuve/Gurriel/Alvarez/Correa/Bregman

STL – Edman/Goldschmidt/O’Neill/Arenado/Carlson

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

MIL – Adames/Yelcih/Garcia

TB – Arozarena/Cruz/Franco

CHW – Robert/Abreu/Jimenez

STL – Goldschmidt/O’Neill/Arenado

HOU – Altuve/Gurriel/Alvarez

 

Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)

Related Topics

More in Baseball