Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!
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Pitching
MLB DK Pitcher Table
Gerrit Cole
Cole’s throwing at the highest level of any pitcher on this slate. Through 23 starts, he owns a 2.92 ERA with a slate-low 2.85 xFIP and a slate-high 34.3% strikeout rate. After struggling a bit with inconsistencies, Cole’s posted 25+ DK points in 4 of his last 6 starts, including a 50.3 DK point performance against the Houston Astros. He gets an interesting matchup against the Oakland A’s tonight. They’ve been struggling a bit in recent weeks, although they aren’t striking out at a high rate. Still, Cole will create his own strikeouts, and he’s a -143 favorite in a game set at 7.5 runs tonight. He can be used in all leagues.
Joe Musgrove
Musgrove isn’t generally a top player for me, but he is on this slate. He boasts a 3.04 ERA with a 3.46 xFIP and a 28.1% strikeout rate through 25 games (24 starts). He’s quietly posted 25+ DK points in 3 of his last 5 starts, including a 39.4 DK point performance against the Colorado Rockies. Most importantly, Musgrove gets an elite matchup against the Los Angeles Angels tonight. They own a .289 team wOBA and a 26.2% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. Musgrove’s a -191 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, and he’s an elite option in all leagues on this slate.
Logan Gilbert
I continue to be extremely high on Gilbert every time he takes the mound. He’s struggled with a 5.16 ERA, although he’s due for positive regression, as he owns a 3.94 xFIP. He also boasts a 26.6% strikeout rate in 2021. He’s coming off of 2 terrible starts, although he’s flashed 35 DK point upside in recent games. Gilbert gets a solid matchup against the Kansas City Royals, who don’t boast a powerful offense but also don’t strike out at a high rate. Regardless, he’s relatively cheap and is a -186 favorite in a game set at 8 runs. Gilbert is the top salary relief option at pitcher on this slate.
Other GPP Targets: Shane McClanahan, Aaron Nola, Wade Miley, Jake Odorizzi, Steven Matz, Paolo Espino, Zach Thompson
Top DraftKings Batters
MLB Top Batters
Top FanDuel Batters
FD MLB Top Batters
Batters
C
JT Realmuto
Realmuto’s seen mixed results in recent games. Over his last 10, he owns a .194 average with a .389 slugging percentage and a .714 OPS. He boasts 4 extra-base hits (1 home run), 4 RBIs, and 1 stolen base in those games. Realmuto gets a great matchup against Taylor Widener, who’s due for more regression as the season continues. The Phillies catcher is expected to hit fourth in the Philadelphia lineup, and he’s the best spend-up option at this position.
Yadier Molina
I went out on a limb on our Daily MLB Podcast, calling for Molina to hit a home run tonight. He’s hitting for a .278 average with only 1 extra-base hit and 4 RBIs over his last 10 games. Molina boasts a .352 wOBA and a .224 ISO against left-handed pitching, and he gets a plus matchup against Dillon Peters tonight. He’s expected to hit sixth in the St. Louis Cardinals lineup, as well. Molina’s lack of upside is a bit concerning, but he’s cheap enough to be considered in all leagues on this slate.
1B
Nelson Cruz
Cruz is now solely first base eligible on DraftKings, making this position a bit more interesting. He’s been playing well, hitting for a .268 average with a .537 slugging percentage and a .848 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he posted 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 10 RBIs. Although Cruz is better against left-handed pitching, he gets a great matchup against Matt Harvey tonight. He’s expected to hit third in the top projected offense on this slate, making him an elite option for a surprisingly low price tag.
Brad Miller
If you need to save money at this position, Miller makes an interesting option. He’s been cold in recent games, recording a .160 average with 3 extra-base hits and 2 RBIs over his last 10 games. Miller gets a great matchup against Taylor Widener, and he brings .092 wOBA and .026 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game. He’s only expected to hit sixth in the Philadelphia Phillies lineup, but he’s a high upside option in a great offense for a low price tag.
2B
Brandon Lowe
Lowe is one of my favorite plays on the entire slate. He’s found plenty of success over his last 10 games, hitting for a .306 average with a .750 slugging percentage and a 1.140 OPS. He boasts 8 extra-base hits (4 home runs), 11 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over that span. Lowe gets an elite matchup against Matt Harvey, and he enters this game with a .394 wOBA and a .306 ISO against right-handed pitching. Lowe’s leading off for the Tampa Bay Rays, and he’s as close to a lock as I will find on this slate.
Jorge Polanco
Polanco continues to be grossly underpriced, as he’s recorded a .310 average with a .571 slugging percentage and a .946 OPS over his last 10 games. In those contests, he’s posted 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 14 RBIs, and 1 stolen base. Polanco gets an interesting matchup against Eric Lauer tonight. Most importantly, he’s expected to lead off for the Minnesota Twins, adding to his upside. I don’t necessarily love Polanco’s matchup, but he’s an elite option for this price tag.
3B
Nolan Arenado
Arenado’s been struggling a bit in recent games. Over his last 10, he’s posted a .163 average with a .349 slugging percentage and a .549 OPS. He owns 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 9 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over that span. Arenado gets an elite matchup against Dillon Peters, though, and he enters this game with a .394 wOBA and a .326 ISO against left-handed pitching. He’s hitting fourth in the St. Louis Cardinals lineup, and Arenado is one of the best options at a relatively weak position tonight.
Joey Wendle
Wendle’s seen mixed results over his last 10 games, posting a .242 average with 2 extra-base hits and 3 RBIs. More importantly, he gets an elite matchup against Matt Harvey tonight. Wendle brings .101 wOBA and .074 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching this season. He’s hitting sixth in the best offense on this slate, and he’ll benefit from playing in a hitter-friendly stadium tonight. Wendle’s cheap enough to be considered in all leagues on this slate.
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SS
Wander Franco
Franco’s seen mixed results throughout his rookie season, but he’s been playing at an elite level over his last 10 games. Over that span, he’s hitting for a .410 average with a .667 slugging percentage and a 1.132 OPS. He boasts 8 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 7 RBIs in those games. Franco gets one of the best matchups on the slate against Matt Harvey, and he’s expected to hit second in the Tampa Bay Rays lineup. He isn’t going to come cheap, but he’s an elite option in all leagues tonight.
Willy Adames
Adames has enjoyed tremendous success for the Milwaukee Brewers this season, and he’s surprisingly cheap tonight. He owns a .281 average with a .469 slugging percentage and a .847 OPS over his last 10 games. He posted 4 extra-base hits (1 home run), 2 RBIs, and 1 stolen base in those contests. Adames gets a matchup against Andrew Albers, and he’s flashed tremendous power against left-handed pitching this season. Assuming he’s healthy, he’s expected to hit second in the Milwaukee offense, making him a viable option in all leagues.
OF
Bryce Harper/Odubel Herrera
Harper isn’t going to come cheap, but he’s hitting for a .273 average with 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 9 RBIs over his last 10 games. Herrera’s also been playing at a high level with a .355 average, 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs), and 5 RBIs over that same span. They both get an elite matchup against Taylor Widener, and they’ve each found success against right-handed pitching. They feature vastly different price tags, and either can be used on this slate.
Tampa Bay Rays
This should be the least surprising recommendation on this entire sheet. I love Tampa Bay against Matt Harvey tonight, and they feature several outfielders that can be considered. Austin Meadows leads the way as a left-handed batter that dominates right-handed pitching. Randy Arozarena can also be considered in all leagues, as he’s expected to hit fifth in their lineup. Finally, Kevin Kiermaier can be used as a salary relief option in this matchup.
Luis Robert
Robert’s price tag continues to be far too low, although it is increasing. He’s hitting for a .372 average with a .558 slugging percentage and a .958 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he boasts 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 6 RBIs, and 1 stolen base. He boasts an elite combination of speed and power, and he gets a plus matchup against Keegan Thompson tonight. Robert is expected to hit second in the Chicago White Sox lineup, and he’s an elite option in all leagues.
Washington Nationals Lead Off Hitter
This is a first for this article. There are two players that could leadoff for the Washington Nationals tonight – Lane Thomas or Victor Robles. They’re both extremely cheap and have performed well against left-handed pitching. They’ll get a great matchup against Rich Hill on this slate, as well. Of the two, I prefer Thomas, although I’m willing to play either one that’s leading off, or both if they’re hitting high enough in the lineup.
Stacks
“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen
Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch
DraftKings Team Stacks
DK MLB Stacks
FanDuel Team Stacks
FD MLB Stacks
“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)
Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.
When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.
There’s a massive 15 game slate tonight with several elite stacks. I can’t possibly list every stack I’d consider on this slate, but my five favorites are posted below.
DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas
TB – Lowe/Franco/Cruz/Meadows/Arozarena
PHI – Herrera/Segura/Harper/Realmuto/Miller
BOS – Hernandez/Schwarber/Martinez/Bogaerts/Devers
TOR – Bichette/Semien/Guerrero/Hernandez/Dickerson
LAD – Turner/Betts/Turner/Pollock/Smith
DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas
TB – Lowe/Franco/Meadows
PHI – Herrera/Harper/Realmuto
BOS – Hernandez/Martinez/Bogaerts
LAD – Turner/Betts/Turner
STL – Edman/Goldschmidt/Areando
Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)
