Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!
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Pitching
MLB DK Pitcher Table
Zack Greinke
Greinke isn’t a player I generally use in fantasy, but it shows how bad the pitching options are on this smaller slate. He owns a 3.43 ERA with a 4.15 xFIP and a 17.9% strikeout rate through 25 starts. Greinke gets an interesting matchup against the Kansas City Royals. They feature one of the lowest team wOBAs in the MLB over the last 14 days. With that being said, they haven’t been striking out at a high rate. Greinke has the ability to pitch deep into games, but his lack of strikeout ability limits his overall ceiling. He’s a -233 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, and he’s one of the safer options tonight.
Huascar Ynoa
Ynoa’s been throwing at the highest level on this slate, although he’s seen limited innings in 2021. Through 10 games (9 starts), he’s recorded a 2.70 ERA with a 3.21 xFIP and a 27.3% strikeout rate. Ynoa should see his pitch count increase once again today, and he could throw upwards of 90+ pitches tonight. He gets a tough matchup against the New York Yankees, who boast a .350 team wOBA over the last 14 days. With that being said, they also feature the second-highest strikeout rate on the slate at 25.5%. Ynoa’s a -112 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, and he’s an elite option with limited pitching options on this slate.
Antonio Senzatela
Senzatela’s an interesting option, as he isn’t throwing as poorly as many people believe. He owns a 4.58 ERA with a 4.16 xFIP and a 15.5% strikeout rate through 20 starts. He boasts a 52.3% ground ball rate, allowing him to slightly negate the small amount of wind blowing out in Chicago. Most importantly, Senzatela gets an elite matchup against the Chicago Cubs, who’ve recorded a .299 team wOBA and a 30% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. We’ve seen bad pitchers for the Kansas City Royals dominate the Cubs in recent days, and Senzatela could find success in this matchup. He’s a +116 underdog in a game set at 9 runs, but he’s a cheap option that I’m willing to take a chance on because of the size of this slate and the pitchers taking the mound.
Other GPP Targets: Alek Manoah, Kyle Hendricks
Top DraftKings Batters
MLB Top Batters
Top FanDuel Batters
FD MLB Top Batters
Batters
C
Yan Gomes
Gomes continues to flash for the Oakland A’s, although his price never truly jumps. He’s hitting for a .235 average with 3 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 4 RBIs over his last 10 games. Gomes gets a great matchup against Marco Gonzales, and he enters this game with a .390 wOBA and a .277 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. He’s expected to hit fifth in Oakland’s lineup, and he can be used in all leagues on this smaller slate.
Martin Maldonado
Maldonado’s near the minimum price on this slate. He hasn’t been playing overly well, posting a .120 average with 1 home run and 2 RBIs over his last 10 games. With that being said, he gets a great matchup against Daniel Lynch tonight. Maldonado brings .041 wOBA and .050 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game. Although he isn’t a dominant option, he’s hitting in the best offense on this slate. He’s a cheap way to get a piece of the Houston Astros.
1B
Yuli Gurriel
Gurriel’s seen mixed results in recent games, posting a .244 average with a .415 slugging percentage and a .726 OPS over his last 10 contests. He owns 3 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 4 RBIs over that span. Gurriel gets a great matchup against Daniel Lynch, and he boasts a .395 wOBA and a .255 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. He’s expected to hit fifth in the Houston Astros lineup, and he’s my favorite option at this position tonight.
Collin Moran
If you need to save a bit of salary here, Moran is a solid option. He’s been struggling a bit over his last 10 games, recording a .226 average with 2 home runs and 6 RBIs in those contests. With that being said, Moran gets one of the top matchups on the slate, as Humberto Mejia is expected to draw the start tonight. Moran owns .057 wOBA and .027 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching this season. It’s a small slate, and Moran is a high upside way to save some salary at first base tonight.
2B
Jose Altuve
Altuve continues to find success for the Houston Astros. He’s hitting for a .319 average with a .468 slugging percentage and a .815 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 6 extra-base hits and 1 RBI in those contests. Altuve gets an elite matchup against Daniel Lynch tonight. He’s been better against right-handed pitching in 2021, although he’s been more consistent and more powerful against lefties throughout his career. Altuve’s leading off for the Houston Astros, and he’s an elite option on this slate.
Josh Rojas
Rojas is surprisingly expensive tonight, although he’s been playing at an elite level for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Over his last 10 games, he’s recorded a .486 average with a .743 slugging percentage and a 1.293 OPS. He boasts 6 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 8 RBIs in those games. Rojas gets an elite matchup against Wil Crowe and the Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen tonight. He’s leading off for Arizona, and he can be considered in all leagues tonight.
3B
Austin Riley
Riley’s been one of the hottest hitters in the MLB for quite some time. He’s posted a .341 average with a .659 slugging percentage and a 1.072 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he’s recorded 5 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 6 RBIs. Riley gets an interesting matchup against Jordan Montgomery on this slate. Although the matchup isn’t great, he’s hitting fourth in a dominant Atlanta Braves lineup, and he’s the top spend-up option tonight.
Kyle Seager
As I said on our daily MLB Podcast, Seager continues to be a bit too cheap, especially for how he’s playing in recent games. Over his last 10 contests, he’s hitting for a .237 average with a .605 slugging percentage and a .915 OPS. He boasts 6 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 10 RBIs over that span. Seager gets a great matchup against Paul Blackburn, and he’s consistently hit the ball hard against right-handed pitching in 2021. Seager’s expected to hit third in the Seattle Mariners lineup, and he can be considered in all leagues tonight.
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SS
Carlos Correa
Correa’s one of the most mispriced Houston Astros tonight. He’s been on fire, recording a .324 average with a .486 slugging percentage and a .896 OPS over his last 10 games. He’s posted 3 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 5 RBIs in those games. Correa gets an elite matchup against Daniel Lynch, and he enters this game with a .370 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. More importantly, he’s hitting third in the Houston lineup, making him one of their top options on this slate.
Nicky Lopez
Lopez has quietly caught fire for the Kansas City Royals. Over his last 10 games, he owns a .361 average with a .472 slugging percentage and a .897 OPS. He also boasts 2 extra-base hits (1 home run), 4 RBIs, and 8 stolen bases over that span. Lopez boasts tremendous upside because of his speed, and he gets a decent matchup against Zack Greinke tonight. He’s a cheap option, who’s expected to hit second in the Kansas City lineup. He can be considered in all leagues as a salary relief option at this position.
OF
Houston Astros
Houston’s an interesting spot tonight. Yordan Alvarez is the best of the group, even in a lefty/lefty matchup. He’s followed by Michael Brantley, whose price tag is on the rise. Assuming Chas McCormick is in the lineup, he can be considered in all leagues as a cheaper way to get a piece of this offense. Jake Meyers has caught fire in recent games, and he’s near the minimum price tag tonight. He’s hitting near the bottom of the lineup, but he can also be considered in all leagues on this slate.
Starling Marte/Mark Canha
Marte and Canha are two players that can take advantage of a great matchup against Marco Gonzales tonight. Canha’s been struggling a bit recently, but he hits left-handed pitching well and is expected to lead off. Marte isn’t going to come cheap, but he continues to find success, and he boasts as much upside as anyone on this slate. Both can be used on this slate.
Pittsburgh Pirates
It’s always interesting when you can stack a bad offense like Pittsburgh on a slate. Ben Gamel is expected to lead off, and he’s a great salary relief option on this slate. The best play comes in the form of Bryan Reynolds, though. He’s the most expensive, and for good reason. Yoshi Tsutsugo can also be considered, as he’s been playing well. Lastly, Hoy Park’s been struggling, but he can be used in GPPs late in the Pittsburgh offense. He’s the worst of the group, though.
Rafael Ortega
Ortega’s cooled off quite a bit in recent games, posting a .194 average with 2 extra-base hits and 3 RBIs over his last 10 contests. He gets a solid matchup against Antonio Senzatela tonight, though. Ortega enters this game with .248 wOBA and .193 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching, and he’s expected to lead off for the Chicago Cubs. He’s a great tournament option on this slate.
Stacks
“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen
Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch
DraftKings Team Stacks
DK MLB Stacks
FanDuel Team Stacks
FD MLB Stacks
“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)
Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.
When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.
We only have six games on this slate, limiting stacking options. My five favorites are listed below, but the Houston Astros are significantly better than any others tonight.
DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas
HOU – Altuve/Correa/Alvarez/Gurriel/Diaz
ARI – Rojas/Marte/Smith/Walker/Peralta
PIT – Hayes/Reynolds/Moran/Stallings/Tsutsugo
OAK – Canha/Marte/Olson/Gomes/Chapman
ATL – Albies/Soler/Freeman/Riley/Swanson
DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas
HOU – Altuve/Correa/Alvarez
ARI – Rojas/Marte/Smith
OAK – Canha/Marte/Olson
PIT – Hayes/Reynolds/Moran
ATL – Albies/Freeman/Riley
Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)
