Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!
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Pitching
MLB DK Pitcher Table
Max Scherzer
Scherzer’s been throwing at an extremely high level through 22 starts in 2021. He boasts a 2.69 ERA with a 3.34 xFIP and a 34.4% strikeout rate. He’s been consistent in recent games while flashing 30+ DK point upside. More importantly, Scherzer gets an elite matchup against a struggling New York Mets offense. They currently own a slate-low .276 team wOBA over the last 14 days. New York also posted a 25.6% strikeout rate over that span. Scherzer’s a -264 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, and he’s my preferred option at the top of pitcher today.
Gerrit Cole
Cole is another elite talent, who’s found plenty of success this season. Through 22 starts, he’s posted a 3.04 ERA with a 2.84 xFIP and a 34.7% strikeout rate. Although Cole hasn’t been overly consistent, he boasts unmatched upside, posting 50+ DK points in a recent start against the Houston Astros. He gets a solid matchup against the Minnesota Twins, although this isn’t nearly as good of a matchup as Scherzer gets. Still, Cole’s a -223 favorite in a game set at 8 runs. He’s an elite option and can be considered instead of [or with] Scherzer, but I prefer the better matchup between two similar pitchers.
Triston McKenzie
This recommendation came down to Hyun Jin Ryu and McKenzie. I sided with the latter’s strikeout potential. McKenzie’s seen mixed results throughout the season, recording a 5.12 ERA with a 4.72 xFIP and a 28.2% strikeout rate through 18 games (17 starts). He’s coming off of a near-no-hitter, scoring 43.4 DK points against the Detroit Tigers. McKenzie gets another great matchup today, as he’ll face off against the Los Angeles Angels, who own a .286 team wOBA and a 25.6% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. He’s a -126 favorite in a game set at 9 runs. Ryu’s the safer option of the duo, but McKenzie comes with more upside in this particular matchup.
Other GPP Targets: Hyun Jin Ryu, Kevin Gausman, Eric Lauer, Sean Manaea, Keegan Thompson
Top DraftKings Batters
MLB Top Batters
Top FanDuel Batters
FD MLB Top Batters
Batters
C
Omar Narvaez
Narvaez continues to enjoy an outstanding season for the Milwaukee Brewers, posting a .267 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .803 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he’s recorded 3 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 8 RBIs. Narvaez gets a great matchup against Paolo Espindo today, and he boasts .112 wOBA and .077 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching this season. He’s expected to hit fifth in the Milwaukee offense, and Narvaez can be considered in all leagues on this slate.
Robinson Chirinos
Chirinos’ quietly been seeing the ball well in recent games, as he’s hitting for a .348 average with a .609 slugging percentage and a 1.091 OPS over his last 10 contests. He boasts 4 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 3 RBIs in limited at-bats in those games. Chirinos gets a great matchup against Kris Bubic, and he enters this game with a .416 wOBA and a .294 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. He’s expected to hit sixth in the Chicago Cubs lineup, and he’s a great salary relief option in all leagues.
1B
Anthony Rizzo
If you’re spending up here, Max Muncy is my favorite option, although I’d prefer to save salary and spend up on both pitchers. Rizzo continues to be underpriced, as he owns a .222 average with a .389 slugging percentage and a .707 OPS over his last 10 games. He’s posted 2 home runs, 8 RBIs, and 1 stolen base in those contests. Although he hasn’t been overly dominant, Rizzo gets a solid matchup against Kenta Maeda, and he’s hitting second in a high upside New York Yankees offense. He’s always in play when he’s priced under $4k.
Rowdy Tellez
Tellez is another solid option on this slate, as he’s been consistent but struggled with power in recent games. Over his last 10 contests, he’s hitting for a .286 average with 2 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 3 RBIs. Tellez gets a great matchup against Paolo Espino and the Washington Nationals bullpen. He’s only expected to hit seventh in the Milwaukee Brewers lineup, but he’s a great salary relief option, especially if you need a cheap way to get exposure to the Milwaukee offense.
2B
Trea Turner
Turner’s the most expensive healthy option at second base and for good reason. He’s hitting for a .333 average with a .452 slugging percentage and a .808 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 5 extra-base hits, 4 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases over that span. Turner gets a great matchup against Rich Hill today, and he brings a .464 wOBA and a .259 ISO against left-handed pitching into this game. He’s a consistent option, who comes with tremendous upside on a nightly basis. Turner’s leading off for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and he can be used in all leagues.
Marcus Semien
Semien’s cooled down a bit in recent games. Over his last 10 contests, he owns a .200 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .804 OPS. He recorded 6 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 4 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases over that span. Semien gets a great matchup against Wily Peralta on this slate. The Toronto Blue Jays are one of the top offenses, and Semien’s leading off for them. He’s a bit underpriced, even for his recent drop in average, and he can be considered in all leagues on this slate.
3B
Jose Ramirez
Ramirez’s been playing at an elite level in recent games, posting a .256 average with a .605 slugging percentage and a .938 OPS over his last 10 contests. He boasts 8 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 8 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases over that span. Ramirez gets a great matchup against Reid Detmers, who’s struggled with home runs this season. The Cleveland third baseman owns a .353 wOBA and a .227 ISO against left-handed pitching this season, and he can be used in all leagues if you can get to his price tag today.
Matt Duffy
Duffy’s an extremely cheap option, who’s found some success over his last 10 games. Over that span, he’s hitting for a .371 average with a .400 slugging percentage and a .805 OPS. He’s posted 1 extra-base hit and 1 RBI in those games. Although Duffy doesn’t come with tremendous upside, he’s been a consistent hitter and comes with an extremely low price tag. He’s expected to lead off for the Chicago Cubs against Kris Bubic today. He’s a solid salary relief option if you need to save money at this position.
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SS
Tim Anderson
Anderson’s been arguably the hottest hitting shortstop in the MLB yet his price dipped for the slate today. Over his last 10 games, he posted a .388 average with a .714 slugging percentage and a 1.102 OPS. He recorded 7 extra-base hits (4 home runs), 10 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over that span. Anderson gets a great matchup against Luis Patino, although I prefer him against left-handed pitching. Still, he’s leading off for the Chicago White Sox, and he’s an elite option in all leagues on this slate.
Amed Rosario
Rosario’s another shortstop that’s found plenty of success over his last 10 games. He owns a .362 average with a .553 slugging percentage and a .928 OPS over that span. Overall, he’s posted 7 extra-base hits and 8 RBIs in those games. Rosario gets a great matchup against Reid Detmers, and he enters this game with .076 wOBA and .080 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. He’s expected to hit second in the Cleveland lineup, and he can be considered in all leagues on this slate, as he’s a bit underpriced yet.
OF
Cleveland
All three of the Cleveland outfielders can be considered tonight, although two are significantly better than the third. Myles Straw continues to produce at a high level, and he’s leading off for the team. Franmil Reyes boasts elite power against left-handed pitching, and he gets a matchup against Reid Detmers, who’s struggled with home runs through limited innings this season. Oscar Mercado is expected to hit fifth in the lineup, and he can be considered, although he isn’t nearly as good of a play as the other two options.
Corey Dickerson
Dickerson’s seen somewhat of limited at-bats over his last 10 games, although he boasts a .346 average with a .692 slugging percentage and a 1.106 OPS over that span. He’s posted 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 6 RBIs, and 1 stolen base in those games. Dickerson gets a great matchup against Wily Peralta today, and he’s been more consistent and more powerful against right-handed pitching this season. He’s expected to hit fifth in the Toronto Blue Jays lineup, and he can be used in all leagues.
Randy Arozarena
Arozarena continues to play at a high level, hitting for a .429 average with a .629 slugging percentage and a 1.141 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he’s recorded 6 extra-base hits and 4 RBIs. Arozarena gets a great matchup against Dallas Keuchel today, and he’s expected to lead off for the Tampa Bay Rays. Nelson Cruz is another option that can be used here.
AJ Pollock
Pollock’s currently day-to-day, so check his status prior to using him tonight. He continues to perform well, posting a .317 average with a .463 slugging percentage and a .812 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 4 extra-base hits (1 home run), 9 RBIs, and 3 stolen bases in those contests. Pollock gets a great matchup against Rich Hill today, and he brings a .380 wOBA and a .202 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. He’s only expected to hit sixth in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, but Pollock can be considered in all leagues if he’s starting.
Stacks
“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen
Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch
DraftKings Team Stacks
DK MLB Stacks
FanDuel Team Stacks
FD MLB Stacks
“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)
Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.
When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.
We have a reasonable nine-game early slate today. There are several solid hitting spots, giving us plenty of options. My five favorites are listed below.
DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas
TOR – Semien/Bichette/Guerrero/Hernandez/Dickerson
LAD – Turner/Muncy/Turner/Smith/Pollock
CLE – Straw/Rosario/Ramirez/Reyes/Mercado
MIL – Adames/Yelich/Escobar/Narvaez/Garcia
TB – Arozarena/Cruz/Franco/Diaz/Margot
DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas
TOR – Semien/Bichette/Guerrero
CLE – Straw/Ramirez/Reyes
LAD – Turner/Muncy/Turner
TB – Arozarena/Cruz/Franco
MIL – Adames/Escobar/Narvaez
Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)
