Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!
Vegas Overview – Below is an excerpt from our sister site, Bet Karma. It has daily player props, live trends (below), and much more! Access all odds, trends, and line movement for all sports here: BetKarma Live MLB Trends
Projections will be updated throughout the day. You can stay up to date on all of our latest projections by utilizing our FREE projections portal at DFS Karma.
NOTE: Tables are embedded in the breakdown and update LIVE. The various tables will update with starting lineups confirmation, when projections are edited in the projections portal(s), and every hour. If a table is showing an error message or is blank, please wait a moment and refresh the page and it should re-populate correctly. Thanks!
Pitching
MLB DK Pitcher Table
Walker Buehler
If you can get all the way up to Buehler, he’s a great option. He’s thrown well through 24 starts, posting a 2.09 ERA with a 3.64 xFIP and a 27% strikeout rate. He’s also been one of the best pitchers in the MLB over the last 30 days. Buehler gets a great matchup against an ice-cold New York Mets offense, who own a .276 team wOBA and a 24.8% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. The Los Angeles ace is one of the most consistent pitchers in the MLB, and he’s a -249 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs. He’s an elite option in all leagues.
Chris Sale
Sale returned 6 days ago, and he looked as if he never lost a step. He allowed 2 earned runs while striking out 8 batters over 5 innings on 89 pitches. Sale’s still surprisingly cheap on DraftKings, as it won’t be long before he’s consistently priced in the mid- to high-$10k range. Sale gets an elite matchup against the Texas Rangers, who own a slate-low .259 team wOBA over the last 14 days. He should see his pitch count increase a bit tonight, and he’s a -317 favorite in a game set at 9 runs. Although he recently returned from a major injury, Sale can be used in all leagues on this slate, as he is a bit too cheap for his talent.
Sonny Gray
Gray is arguably the most mispriced pitcher on the slate. He’s been throwing at a high level, recording a 4.47 ERA with a 3.44 xFIP and a 28.5% strikeout rate through 18 starts. Gray hasn’t been overly consistent in recent starts, although most pitchers in the MLB haven’t been. He gets a great matchup against the Miami Marlins, who own a slate-high 28.5% team strikeout rate over the last 14 days. Gray’s a -194 favorite in a game set at 9 runs. Some may prefer Max Fried, who’s throwing at a higher level than Gray over the last month, although I prefer the strikeout matchup for Gray.
Other GPP Targets: Robbie Ray, Lance McCullers, Max Fried, Blake Snell
Top DraftKings Batters
MLB Top Batters
Top FanDuel Batters
FD MLB Top Batters
Batters
C
Carson Kelly
Kelly’s been on fire in recent games, posting a .344 average with a .438 slugging percentage and a .838 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 2 extra-base hits and 4 RBIs in those games. Although his power hasn’t translated in recent games, he gets a matchup against Austin Gomber in Coors tonight. Kelly boasts a .470 wOBA and a .303 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. He’s expected to hit fourth in the Arizona Diamondbacks lineup, and he’s an elite option in all leagues tonight.
Manny Pina
Pina’s only hitting for a .226 average over his last 10 games, although he owns a .484 slugging percentage and a .710 OPS in those contests. Over that span, he’s recorded 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 9 RBIs. Pina quietly owns a .318 wOBA and a .237 ISO against left-handed pitching in 2021, and he’s expected to get a great matchup against Patrick Corbin tonight. He’ll hit late in the Milwaukee Brewers lineup, but his price tag doesn’t represent his upside. He’s an elite tournament option that can be considered in cash games at this point.
1B
Freddie Freeman
There are several elite high-priced options on this slate with Freeman leading the way. He’s been playing at a high level, recording a .368 average with a .684 slugging percentage and a 1.126 OPS over his last 10 games. In those contests, he boasts 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 7 RBIs, and 1 stolen base. Although Freeman’s been better against right-handed pitching, he gets an elite matchup against Keegan Akin in a hitter-friendly stadium. He’s a player that generally goes overlooked in lefty/lefty matchups, making him an elite option in all leagues.
CJ Cron
If you’re looking for the hottest hitter in the MLB, you may be looking for Cron. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting for a .400 average with a .914 slugging percentage and a 1.389 OPS. He owns 8 extra-base hits (5 home runs) and 16 RBIs in those contests. Cron’s averaging 10.9 DK points per game in Colorado this season, and he gets a great matchup against Tyler Gilbert. He’s posted a ridiculous .518 wOBA and a .481 ISO against left-handed pitching at home this season, and Cron is one of the best plays on the entire slate, regardless of price or position.
2B
Brandon Lowe
Lowe is one of the most interesting options, specifically in tournaments tonight. He’s been playing at an elite level, posting a .389 average with a .889 slugging percentage and a 1.354 OPS over his last 10 games. He’s recorded 8 extra-base hits (5 home runs), 11 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over that span. Lowe’s price tag dipped a bit because of a matchup against Lucas Giolito. As I mentioned on our daily MLB Podcast, Giolito’s been one of the worst pitchers in the MLB [in terms of xFIP] over the last 30 days. Lowe’s looked dominant against right-handed pitching, and he’s expected to lead off for the Tampa Bay Rays. He’s one of the best GPP options on this slate.
Ozzie Albies
This article is outlining quite a few high-priced options, including at pitcher. If you’re looking for more plays that will specifically help with roster construction, join our free Discord to get access to all of our staff. Over his last 10 games, Albies owns a .279 average with a .674 slugging percentage and a 1.021 OPS. Overall, he owns 6 extra-base hits (5 home runs), 14 RBIs, and 3 stolen bases in those games. Albies gets a great matchup against Keegan Akin, and he’s expected to lead off for the Atlanta Braves tonight. He isn’t going to come cheap, but he’s an elite option if you can get to his price tag.
3B
Rafael Devers
If there’s one position that I don’t want to save salary at tonight, it’s third base. Devers is only hitting for a .257 average but he also owns a .514 slugging percentage and a .864 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 5 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 7 RBIs in those games. More importantly, Devers gets a matchup against Dane Dunning, who’s struggled on the road this season. The Boston Red Sox third baseman enters this game with a .398 wOBA and a .347 ISO against right-handed pitching. He’s expected to hit fourth in Boston’s lineup, and he’s a top option at this position.
Austin Riley
The other high-priced option I love tonight is Riley. He continues to dominate, recording a .357 average with a .667 slugging percentage and a 1.092 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he’s posted 7 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 8 RBIs. Riley’s been better against right-handed pitching this season, but he will benefit from a great matchup against Keegan Akin and the Baltimore Orioles bullpen. He’s hitting in the heart of the Atlanta Braves lineup, and he’s an elite play on this slate.
Editor’s Note: Remember, you can sign up for all of our Core Plays here, or join our free Discord here.
SS
Trevor Story
There are several outstanding spend-up options at shortstop, but Story is the best of the group. He’s hitting for a .290 average with a .516 slugging percentage and a .922 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 5 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 4 RBIs in those contests. Most importantly, Story gets a great matchup against Tyler Gilbert in Coors. He’s at his best against left-handed pitching, and he’ll be hitting third in the Colorado Rockies offense. If you can find the salary, Story can be used in all leagues tonight.
Nick Ahmed
If you need to save salary tonight, Ahmed makes a great play. He’s seen mixed results in recent games, posting a .257 average with 5 extra-base hits and 7 RBIs over his last 10 games. Ahmed gets a matchup against Austin Gomber tonight, and he boasts a .367 wOBA and a .217 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. He’s currently expected to lead off for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and if that’s the case, he’s far too cheap on this slate.
OF
Conner Joe
Joe continues to be one of the most mispriced players on DraftKings, although his price tag is on the rise. He’s recorded a .263 average with a .579 slugging percentage and a .943 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 4 home runs and 6 RBIs over that span. Joe gets a great matchup against Tyler Gilbert in Coors, and he boasts a .486 wOBA and a .316 ISO against left-handed pitching at home. Joe’s leading off for the Colorado Rockies, and he’s an elite option in all leagues.
Ketel Marte
Marte’s only played in limited games this season, but he’s found plenty of success. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting for a .256 average with 6 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 4 RBIs. Marte gets a solid matchup against Austin Gomber in Coors tonight. He currently owns a .514 wOBA and a .316 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Marte’s expected to hit second in the Arizona Diamondbacks lineup, and he’s a bit too cheap for his situation on this slate.
Myles Straw
Straw’s another outfielder that continues to be underpriced on a nightly basis. He owns a .282 average with 5 extra-base hits, 2 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases over his last 10 games. Straw continues to lead off for Cleveland, and he gets a plus matchup against Jaime Barria tonight. He boasts tremendous upside because of his speed, and he’s one of the best salary relief options on the slate tonight.
Aaron Judge
Judge’s caught fire in recent games, posting a .344 average with a .656 slugging percentage and a 1.145 OPS over his last 10 contests. Over that span, he’s recorded 4 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 10 RBIs, and 3 stolen bases. Judge gets a great matchup against Charlie Barnes, and he boasts a .403 wOBA and a .227 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. He’s expected to hit second in the New York Yankees lineup, and he’s a player that can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Stacks
“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen
Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch
DraftKings Team Stacks
DK MLB Stacks
FanDuel Team Stacks
FD MLB Stacks
“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)
Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.
When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.
We have a massive 14 game slate with several bad pitchers on the mound. There are a plethora of stacking options, and my five favorites are listed below.
DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas
ATL – Albies/Soler/Freeman/Riley/Swanson
COL – Joe/Rodgers/Story/Blackmon/Cron
MIL – Adames/Escobar/Yelich/Garcia/Cain
NYY – LeMahieu/Judge/Rizzo/Stanton/Gallo
TOR – Semien/Bichette/Guerrero/Hernandez/Gurriel
DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas
ATL – Albies/Freeman/Roley
TOR – Semien/Bichette/Guerrero
MIL – Adames/Escobar/Garcia
NYY – LeMahieu/Judge/Rizzo
COL – Joe/Rodgers/Story
Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)
