Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!
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Pitching
MLB DK Pitcher Table
Freddy Peralta
Peralta’s enjoyed an elite season through 22 games (21 starts) thus far. He boasts a 2.28 ERA with a 3.65 xFIP and a 34.5% strikeout rate. He’s posted 20+ DK points in 6 of his last 9 starts, flashing 35+ DK point upside. Peralta gets a great matchup against a right-handed heavy St. Louis Cardinals lineup. The only concern is their recent offensive success and lack of strikeouts, which resulted in Corbin Burnes recording only 3 over 18 outs last night. With that being said, Peralta’s a -112 favorite in a game set at only 7 runs, making him one of the top pitching options on a relatively loaded slate tonight.
Charlie Morton
Morton struggled a bit early in the season, but he’s boasted outstanding advanced metrics the entire season. That positive regression’s been on display, as he owns a 2.79 ERA over the last 30 days. Overall, Morton owns a 3.49 ERA with a 3.42 xFIP and a 28% strikeout rate through 24 starts. He gets an elite matchup against the Miami Marlins, who have seen mixed offensive results in recent games. They also lead the main slate in strikeout rate (28%) tonight. Morton’s a -226 favorite in a game set at 7.5 runs, and he’s the one pitcher I’m likely locking into cash games on this slate.
Shohei Ohtani
Ohtani continues to throw at a high level for the Los Angeles Angels in 2021. Through 17 starts, he owns a 2.93 ERA with a 3.69 xFIP and a 29.7% strikeout rate. Ohtani’s strikeout rate increases slightly on the road, and he gets a plus matchup against the Detroit Tigers. Although we can’t solely attack the Tigers on every slate anymore, they have been struggling in recent games, posting a .292 team wOBA and a 27.9% team strikeout rate over the last 14 days. Ohtani is a -132 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, and he’s another elite option that can be considered in all leagues.
Other GPP Targets: Lance Lynn, Jack Flaherty, Mitch White, Ryan YarbroughTarik Skubal, Ranger Suarez
Top DraftKings Batters
MLB Top Batters
Top FanDuel Batters
FD MLB Top Batters
Batters
C
Will Smith
Smith failed to produce in an elite matchup last night, but I’m going back to the well tonight. He continues to play at a high level, posting a .267 average with a .567 slugging percentage and a .977 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 3 home runs and 8 RBIs in those games. More importantly, Smith gets a solid matchup against JT Brubaker, who’s struggled with home runs this season. He enters this game with a .418 wOBA and a .289 ISO against right-handed pitching. Smith’s expected to hit fourth in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, and he can be used in all leagues if you have the salary at this position.
Cal Raleigh
As you can tell from my pitchers, I’m likely looking to spend up on both spots, meaning we’ll need to find a cheaper option here. Raleigh’s been struggling, recording a .193 average with 2 extra-base hits and 3 RBIs over his last 10 games. With that being said, Raleigh gets an elite matchup against Mike Foltynewicz. He’s been more consistent and significantly more powerful against right-handed pitching this season, as well. Raleigh’s expecting to hit seventh in the Seattle Mariners offense, and he’s one of the top salary relief options at catcher tonight.
1B
Max Muncy
Muncy didn’t start the game last night, essentially guaranteeing he’ll play tonight. He’s been on fire in recent games, recording a .257 average with a .657 slugging percentage and a 1.038 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns 6 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 8 RBIs. Muncy gets a solid matchup against JT Brubaker and a bad Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen tonight. He’s posted a .396 wOBA and a .282 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, and Muncy will benefit from Brubaker’s struggles with home runs. He’s expected to hit second in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, and he’s the top spend up at this position.
Bobby Dalbec
Dalbec’s always the perfect GPP option. His price tag never really comes up and he hits late in the Boston Red Sox lineup, keeping his ownership down on a nightly basis. He’s been playing at an elite level, though, as he’s hitting for a .440 average with a .960 slugging percentage and a 1.477 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 6 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 12 RBIs in those contests. Dalbec gets a matchup against Andrew Heaney, who’s posted a 1.98 HR/9 this season, and he brings a .347 wOBA and a .220 ISO against left-handed pitching into this game. He’s cheap enough to be used in all leagues, although he’s generally better suited for tournaments.
2B
Brandon Lowe
Second base is a position to spend up on tonight. Lowe leads the way, hitting for a .395 average with a .868 slugging percentage and a 1.323 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 8 extra-base hits (5 home runs), 14 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over that span. More importantly, Lowe gets an elite matchup against Spenser Watkins, who’s arguably the worst arm on the slate. He’s been dominant against right-handed pitching, and Lowe’s expected to lead off for the Tampa Bay Rays tonight. He isn’t going to come cheap, but he’s an elite option in all leagues.
Ozzie Albies
Albies is heating up once again, posting a .302 average with a .698 slugging percentage and a 1.059 OPS over his last 10 games. In those contests, he’s recorded 6 extra-base hits (5 home runs), 13 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases. He’s a player that comes with a tremendous combination of speed and power. Tonight, he gets a great matchup against Jesus Luzardo, who’s given up a 2.39 HR/9 this season. Albies is leading off for the Atlanta Braves, and he’s another elite high-priced option at this position.
3B
Kyle Seager
If you listen to our daily MLB Podcast, you know that Ben and I are both on Seager tonight. He’s been struggling a bit recently, posting a .184 average over his last 10 games. With that being said, he owns 4 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 6 RBIs, and 1 stolen base in those contests. Seager’s a powerful lefty that gets a great matchup against Mike Foltynewicz, who’s struggled with home runs this season. The Seattle third baseman’s recorded 40.3% hard-hit and 52.2% fly ball rates against right-handed pitching in 2021. He’s a great home run bet on this slate.
Austin Riley
Riley’s been one of the hottest hitting third basemen in the MLB in recent games. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting for a .293 average with a .610 slugging percentage and a .965 OPS. He boasts 7 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 6 RBIs in those games. Riley gets a great matchup against Jesus Luzardo, who’s another pitcher that continues to struggle with home runs. He’s expected to hit fourth in the Atlanta Braves lineup, and he can be used in all leagues on this slate.
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SS
Xander Bogaerts
Bogaerts continues to quietly produce at an elite level for the Boston Red Sox. He’s hitting for a .351 average with a .568 slugging percentage and a .996 OPS over his last 10 games. In those contests, he boasts 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 10 RBIs. Bogaerts gets a great matchup against Andrew Heaney, and he’s found plenty of success against left-handed pitching throughout his career. Bogaerts is hitting third in the Boston lineup, and he’s an elite option in all leagues on this slate.
J.P. Crawford
Crawford’s an interesting option because he generally struggles with upside. With that being said, I love this matchup. Overall, Crawford’s hitting for a .286 average with 3 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 2 RBIs. He’s been similar against either handedness this season, and he gets a great matchup against Mike Foltynewicz tonight. Crawford’s leading off for the Seattle Mariners, and he can be considered in all leagues tonight.
OF
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay is the clear top outfield for me on this slate. They have three dominant outfield options with a fourth that can be considered on this slate. Nelson Cruz is coming off of a multi home run game, and he can be used in all leagues tonight. Austin Meadows has found tremendous success against right-handed pitching in 2021, and he’s a great option in all leagues. Arguably the two hottest options are Randy Arozarena and Kevin Kiermaier, and they are great options in all leagues on this slate, as well.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox make an interesting option, as they currently have five outfielders that are projected to start tonight. There are three that make significantly better options than the other two, though, JD Martinez, Kike Hernandez, and Hunter Renfroe can all be considered on this slate. Kyle Schwarber and Alex Verdugo can also be considered, although they are significantly worse options in this particular matchup.
Seattle Mariners
Seattle’s in a similar spot as Boston tonight. Mitch Haniger is their best option, although he’s also the most expensive. He’s a player that can be considered in all leagues on this slate. Jarred Kelenic is the other outstanding option, as he’s far too cheap on this slate, even with his recent struggles. Jake Fraley and Jake Bauers can also be considered for their price tags, although they should strictly be used in GPPs on this slate.
Jorge Soler
Soler’s seen mixed results in recent games, posting a .216 average with 3 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 2 RBIs over his last 10 games. He gets a great matchup against Jesus Luzardo on this slate, and he owns a .351 wOBA and a .286 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Soler’s hitting second in the Atlanta Braves offense, and he can be considered in all leagues.
Stacks
“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen
Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch
DraftKings Team Stacks
DK MLB Stacks
FanDuel Team Stacks
FD MLB Stacks
“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)
Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.
When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.
We have 10 games on the main slate with several elite hitting spots. Below are my five favorite stacks for this slate.
DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas
TB – Lowe/Cruz/Meadows/Franco/Arozarena
LAD – Turner/Muncy/Turner/Seager/Smith
ATL – Albies/Soler/Freeman/Riley/Swanson
BOS – Hernandez/Renfroe/Bogaerts/Devers/Martinez
SEA – Haniger/Seager/Franco/Toro/Kelenic
DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas
TB – Lowe/Cruz/Meadows
ATL – Albies/Freeman/Riley
LAD – Turner/Muncy/Turner
BOS – Hernandez/Renfroe/Bogaerts
HOU – Altuve/Correa/Alvarez
Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)
