Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!

 

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Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Corbin Burnes

Burnes continues to enjoy a potential Cy Young award-winning campaign. Through 20 starts, he owns a 2.23 ERA with a 2.19 xFIP and a 36.1% strikeout rate. Although he’s been somewhat inconsistent in recent games, Burnes is coming off of a 49.6 DK point performance. He boasts unmatched upside on this slate. Most importantly, he gets a great matchup against a right-handed heavy St. Louis Cardinals lineup. They’ve been hot in recent games, although this is an ideal matchup for Burnes’ strikeout potential. He’s a -152 favorite in a game set at 7 runs, and he’s the clear SP1 on this slate.

Alek Manoah

Manoah’s looked great through 11 starts, posting a 2.59 ERA with a 3.91 ERA and a 29.3% strikeout rate. He’s due for quite a bit of regression, although he gets a great matchup against the Washington Nationals tonight. Washington sold several starters at the trade deadline, and they own a .298 team wOBA over the last 14 days. Manoah’s a bit too cheap for a pitcher that’s recently flashed 35+ DK point upside. He’s currently a -208 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs,, making him an outstanding option in all leagues on this slate.

Huascar Ynoa

Ynoa could be the most mispriced pitcher on this slate, specifically on DraftKings. Through 9 games (8 starts), he’s recorded a 3.02 ERA to go along with a 3.18 xFIP and a 27.9% strikeout rate. Ynoa flashed plenty of upside prior to his injury, and this will be his first game back since mid-May. He threw 83 pitches in his last rehab outing, suggesting he could throw 90+ pitches if needed tonight. Ynoa also gets a great matchup against the Miami Marlins, who own a 27.4% team strikeout rate over the last 14 days. He’s a -127 favorite in a game set at 7.5 runs, and he’s an elite SP2 option for a ridiculous price tag tonight.

Other GPP Targets: Nathan Eovaldi, Logan Webb, Drew Rasmussen, Tyler Anderson, Dylan Bundy

Top DraftKings Batters

MLB Top Batters

Top FanDuel Batters

FD MLB Top Batters

Batters

C

Will Smith

Smith continues to play at a high level, posting a .310 average with a .724 slugging percentage and a 1.186 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he boasts 4 home runs and 11 RBIs. Smith gets a great matchup against Wil Crowe, and he enters this game with .182 wOBA and .193 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He’s expected to hit fifth in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, and he’s the top spend-up option at catcher.

Mike Zunino

If you watched out daily MLB Podcast, you know Zunino was my home run call. He’s been one of the hottest catchers in the MLB in recent games, recording a .344 average with a .875 slugging percentage and a 1.239 OPS over his last 10 games. He’s posted 7 extra-base hits (5 home runs) and 7 RBIs in those contests. Zunino owns a .507 wOBA and a .488 ISO against left-handed pitching this season, and he gets a great matchup against John Means tonight. He’s only expected to hit seventh in the Tampa Bay Rays lineup, and Zunino is an elite option for a surprisingly low price tag.

1B

Max Muncy

Muncy isn’t necessarily going to come cheap, but he should be significantly more expensive in this matchup. Overall, he’s hitting for a .282 average with a .667 slugging percentage and a 1.058 OPS over his last 10 games. He’s posted 7 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 8 RBIs over that span. Muncy gets an elite matchup against Wil Crowe, who’s struggled with home runs this season. He’s expected to hit second in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, and he’s a top expensive option at this position.

Connor Joe

I mentioned that Joe was the most mispriced player on the slate last night, and that’s the case once again tonight. Over his last 10 games, he owns a .306 average with a .639 slugging percentage and a .989 OPS. In those contests, he boasts 4 home runs and 10 RBIs. Joe gets another plus matchup against Matt Strahm, and he’ll lead off for the Colorado Rockies once again tonight. Joe’s an easy lock in all leagues for his price tag. Once again, CJ Cron is another great option at first base with Joe possessing outfield eligibility.

2B

Jonathan India

It’s difficult to ignore the pure upside of India for his current price tag. He’s been playing at a high level, recording a .282 average with a .590 slugging percentage and a .939 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 6 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 8 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over that span. India’s been slightly more consistent against left-handed pitching this season, although he’s flashed more power against righties. He gets a great matchup against Kyle Hendricks in Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly stadium tonight, as well. India’s leading off for the Cincinnati Reds, and he’s an elite option, specifically in tournaments.

Jorge Polanco

We’re going back to the well with Polanco, who continues to be far too cheap on this slate. He’s only hitting for a .216 average over his last 10 games, but he owns a .568 slugging percentage and a .870 OPS over that span. He boasts 6 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 7 RBIs in those games, as well. Polanco gets a great matchup against a struggling Eli Morgan, and he’s hitting third in the Minnesota Twins lineup. He’s another option that’s far too cheap on this slate.

3B

Josh Donaldson

Donaldson’s seen mixed results in recent games, posting a .267 average over his last 10 games. With that being said, he’s recorded only 1 extra-base hit with 5 RBIs over that span. Still, Donaldson’s price tag dropped far too much, as he gets a great matchup against Eli Morgan tonight. The Minnesota Twins’ third baseman is expected to hit fourth in their lineup, and he’s a player that can continue to be considered in all leagues until his price tag shoots back up.

Aldemys Diaz

Similar to a few players on this slate, Diaz is another option that I’m willing to go back to the well with tonight. He boasts a .341 average with a .488 slugging percentage and a .860 OPS over his last 10 games. He also owns 4 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 8 RBIs in those games. Diaz gets a great matchup against Daniel Lynch tonight, as well. He’s expected to hit fifth in the Houston Astros lineup, and he’s an outstanding salary relief option on a massive slate.

Editor’s Note: Remember, you can sign up for all of our Core Plays here, or join our free Discord here.

SS

Fernando Tatis Jr. 

I’m playing shortstop the same way tonight as I did last night. You’re going to want to spend up for one of the two top options in this game. Tatis was playing at an elite level prior to his injury, and he’s scored 49 DK points in 2 games since returning to the San Diego Padres lineup. He gets a tough matchup against German Marquez tonight, but he’s an elite hitter that will benefit from playing in Coors. He’s expected to lead off for San Diego, and he’s an elite spend-up in all leagues.

Trevor Story

Story’s the other great option in this game. He’s been playing well, recording a .375 average with a .563 slugging percentage and a 1.036 OPS over his last 10 games. In those contests, he’s posted 6 extra-base hits and 3 RBIs. Story gets a plus matchup against Matt Strahm, and he’s a dominant option against left-handed pitching. He’s hitting third in the Colorado Rockies lineup, and he’s still a bit too cheap for the situation tonight.

OF

San Diego Padres/Colorado Rockies

Once again, we have a situation where anyone in this game can be considered. I don’t necessarily love attacking German Marquez, although the San Diego outfielders come with more than enough upside to consider, specifically in tournaments. The Colorado side can also be used, and I may prefer them, although they aren’t as deep as the Padres.

Max Kepler

Kepler’s seen mixed results in recent games, posting a .242 average with a .485 slugging percentage and a .880 OPS over his last 10 contests. Over that span, he’s recorded 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 5 RBIs. Kepler’s leading off for the Minnesota Twins, and he gets an elite matchup against Eli Morgan tonight. Brent Rooker is another great option for the Twins tonight.

Bryce Harper

If you’re spending up, Harper makes a great option. He’s only hitting for a .200 average over his last 10 games, although he boasts a .667 slugging percentage and a 1.057 OPS over that span. He owns 5 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 8 RBIs in those games. Harper gets an interesting matchup against Caleb Smith, and I’m not overly concerned with the lefty/lefty matchup. He’s hitting third in the Philadelphia Phillies lineup, and he’s one of several solid spend-up options at outfield tonight.

Randy Arozarena

Arozarena’s been one of the hottest options in the MLB in recent games. He owns a .421 average with a .816 slugging percentage and a 1.304 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he’s posted 8 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 7 RBIs. Arozarena gets a great matchup against John Means, who’s struggled with home runs tonight, as well. He’s expected to lead off for the Tampa Bay Rays, and he’s a great option tonight. Nelson Cruz is also a great option for the Rays tonight.

 

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams

“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)

“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DraftKings Team Stacks

DK MLB Stacks

FanDuel Team Stacks

FD MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

There is a massive 15 game slate tonight with several elite stacking options. My five favorite stacks are listed below.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

LAD – Turner/Muncy/Turner/Seager/Smith

MIN – Kepler/Rooker/Polanco/Donaldson/Garver

TB – Arozarena/Cruz/Meadows/Franco/Diaz

COL – Joe/Rodgers/Story/Blackmon/Cron

PHI – Segura/Realmuto/Harper/McCutchen/Bohm

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

LAD – Turner/Muncy/Turner

COL – Joe/Rodgers/Story

MIN – Kepler/Rooker/Polanco

TB – Arozarena/Cruz/Franco

PHI – Realmuto/Harper/McCutchen

 

Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)