Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!
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Pitching
MLB DK Pitcher Table
Gerrit Cole
There are several great spend-up options on this slate, and Cole leads the way. He boasts a 3.11 ERA with a 2.87 xFIP and a 34.4% strikeout rate through 21 starts. Cole’s been risky in recent starts, and he’s returning after testing positive for Covid. It’s impossible to say he’s “safe” at this point, although he’s in an elite spot. Cole gets a matchup against the Los Angeles Angels, who feature the second-lowest wOBA (.275) over the last 14 days on this slate. He’s a -275 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs tonight, and Cole can be used in all leagues, even for his ridiculous price tag.
Wade Miley
Miley’s enjoying a solid season, making him an interesting option on the slate tonight. Overall, he owns a 3.00 ERA to go along with a 4.10 xFIP and an 18.5% strikeout rate. Miley’s another pitcher that’s impossible to trust, especially since he’s due for regression. He’s in an elite matchup, though, as the Chicago Cubs own a .292 wOBA with a ridiculous 32.4% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. Miley isn’t known as an elite strikeout option, but his upside will increase drastically in this matchup. He’s a -220 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, and he can be considered in all leagues, although you’ll want to consider a double spend-up in cash games tonight.
Josh Fleming
If you’re looking to save money at pitcher, Fleming is the obvious option. He’s expected to throw as a long reliever behind Collin McHugh. Through 19 games (11 starts), Fleming’s posted a 4.96 ERA with a 4.28 xFIP and a 15.5% strikeout rate. Most importantly, he’s throwing in Tampa Bay, where his xFIP dips to 3.72 and strikeout rate increases to 20.5%. Overall, Fleming’s averaging 14.5 DK points per game at home as opposed to 3.5 on the road this season. He gets an interesting matchup against the Baltimore Orioles, and he’s a -260 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs tonight. Fleming’s the top salary relief option at this position.
Other GPP Targets: Kevin Gausman, Touki Toussaint, Frankie Montas
Top DraftKings Batters
MLB Top Batters
Top FanDuel Batters
FD MLB Top Batters
Batters
C
Elias Diaz
Diaz has quietly performed well for the Colorado Rockies, especially in recent games. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting for a .297 average with a .529 slugging percentage and a .863 OPS. He boasts 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 7 RBIs over that span. Diaz gets a great matchup against Ryan Weathers tonight, and he enters this game with a .374 wOBA and a .222 ISO at home against left-handed pitching. Diaz is expected to hit sixth in the Colorado lineup, and he can be considered in all leagues for his price tag tonight.
Yan Gomes
If you need to save money at catcher tonight, Gomes is an outstanding option. He’s been playing well over his last 10 games, posting a .281 average with a .594 slugging percentage and a .875 OPS. He’s recorded 4 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 10 RBIs over that span. Gomes gets a plus matchup against Dallas Keuchel, and he boasts a .397 wOBA and a .297 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Gomes is expected to hit fifth in the Oakland A’s lineup, making him an elite option for his price tag.
1B
Eric Hosmer
Unsurprisingly, this article will be loaded with players from the San Diego vs Colorado game, as it features the highest total on the slate by a couple of runs. Hosmer’s found success in recent games, posting a .306 average with a .556 slugging percentage and a .915 OPS over his last 10 contests. Over that span, he’s recorded 5 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 4 RBIs. Hosmer gets a great matchup against Antonio Senzatela, and he’s been significantly better against right-handed pitching throughout his career. Hosmer’s expected to hit fourth in the San Diego Padres lineup, and he’s still a bit too cheap on this slate.
Connor Joe
Joe’s one of the most mispriced players on the entire slate tonight. He’s caught fire over his last 10 games, recording a .306 average with a .639 slugging percentage and a .989 OPS. He’s also posted 4 home runs and 10 RBIs in those games. Joe’s been slightly more consistent against right-handed pitching this season, although he’s been more powerful against lefties. He gets a great matchup against Ryan Weathers, and Joe is expected to lead off for the Colorado Rockies. He’s absurdly priced, and he can be used in all leagues. Luckily, he also boasts outfield eligibility, making it easier to get him into your lineups. CJ Cron can be used in all leagues at this position, as well.
2B
Ozzie Albies
I don’t solely want to outline the San Diego/Colorado players in this article, so if they aren’t outlined at a position, feel free to ask me about them in our free Discord. Albies is heating up once again for the Atlanta Braves, recording a .244 average with a .659 slugging percentage and a .999 OPS over his last 10 games. More importantly, he owns 6 extra-base hits (5 home runs), 11 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases in those games. Albies gets a plus matchup against Braxton Garrett tonight, and he’s expected to lead off for Atlanta. He can be used in all leagues tonight.
Jorge Polanco
Polanco’s only hitting for a .200 average over his last 10 games, but he owns a .543 slugging percentage and a .852 OPS in those contests. He boasts 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 7 RBIs over that span, as well. Polanco gets an interesting matchup against Cal Quantrill tonight, and he’s a bit underpriced on this slate. He’s expected to hit third in the Minnesota Twins lineup, and he makes an outstanding salary relief option on this slate.
3B
Manny Machado
Machado isn’t going to come cheap, but he’s an obvious option on this slate. He’s been struggling, posting a .205 average with a .308 slugging percentage and a .552 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns 2 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 3 RBIs. With that being said, Machado gets a great matchup against Antonio Senzatela in Coors tonight. He’s a massive part of the San Diego Padres offense, and he can be used in all leagues if you have the salary.
Aldemys Diaz
If you need to save a bit of money here, Diaz continues to perform well for the Houston Astros. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting for a .317 average with a .390 slugging percentage and a .739 OPS. He owns 3 extra-base hits and 6 RBIs in those games. Diaz has looked outstanding on the road this season, and he gets a great matchup against Carlos Hernandez tonight. Diaz is expected to hit fifth in the Houston lineup, and he’s a great salary relief option in all leagues.
Editor’s Note: Remember, you can sign up for all of our Core Plays here, or join our free Discord here.
SS
Fernando Tatis Jr.
This is a slate where you’re going to want to spend up at shortstop, as two elite options are playing in Coors tonight. Tatis returned in his last game, posting 4 hits (2 home runs), 3 runs, and 4 RBIs (42 DK points). He was also on fire before missing a couple of weeks. Tatis always comes with elite upside because of his combination of speed and power, and he gets an elite matchup against Antonio Senzatela tonight. Tatis is expected to hit second in the San Diego Padres lineup, and he’s a priority on this slate.
Trevor Story
Story is the other elite shortstop option in this game. He continues to play at an elite level, recording a .406 average with a .750 slugging percentage and a 1.250 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 7 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 4 RBIs in those games. Story gets a great matchup against Ryan Weather tonight, and he owns a .379 wOBA and a .215 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Story’s expected to hit third in the Colorado Rockies lineup, and he can be used in all leagues. Brendan Rodgers is another option that can be used at this position.
OF
San Diego Padres/Colorado Rockies
This should be relatively obvious, but every player that is starting in this game can be considered. There are several players with varying price tags, allowing you to take advantage of how much you’re able to spend in the outfield. All of the players from either side can be used.
Austin Slater
Slater’s an interesting and frustrating option because of the way the San Francisco Giants platoon their players. He’s hitting for a .294 average with a .529 slugging percentage and a .863 OPS over his last 10 games. He’s expected to lead off for San Francisco with lefty Rich Hill on the mound for the New York Mets. Slater brings .134 wOBA and .113 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching this season. He’s risky because he could get pulled at any moment, but he’s still a solid option for the matchup.
Myles Straw
Straw continues to be underpriced on a nightly basis and tonight is no different. Over his last 10 games, he boasts a .366 average with a .463 slugging percentage and a .910 OPS. He owns 4 extra-base hits, 3 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases in those games. Straw gets a great matchup against Griffin Jax, and he comes with plenty of upside as the Cleveland lead-off hitter. Straw can continue to be used in all leagues.
Randy Arozarena
Arozarena’s one of the hottest hitters in the MLB at the moment, posting a .421 average with a .816 slugging percentage and a 1.304 OPS over his last 10 games. He’s recorded 8 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 7 RBIs over that span. Arozarena gets a great matchup against Matt Harvey, who’s struggled against right-handed batters throughout the season. He’s expected to hit second in the Tampa Bay Rays lineup, and he continues to be far too cheap tonight. Arozarena can be used in all leagues.
Stacks
“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen
Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch
DraftKings Team Stacks
DK MLB Stacks
FanDuel Team Stacks
FD MLB Stacks
“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)
Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.
When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.
We have a decent-sized slate tonight. More importantly, we have several bad pitchers, giving us multiple spots to attack. I’ve listed my five favorite stacks below.
DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas
SD – Frazier/Tatis/Machado/Hosmer/Pham
COL – Joe/Rodgers/Story/Blackmon/Cron
LAD – Turner/Muncy/Pollock/Turner/Taylor
TB – Lowe/Arozarena/Cruz/Meadows/Franco
HOU – Altuve/Correa/Alvarez/Gurriel/Diaz
DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas
SD – Tatis/Machado/Hosmer
COL – Joe/Rodgers/Story
LAD – Turner/Pollock/Turner
TB – Lowe/Arozarena/Meadows
HOU – Altuve/Correa/Alvarez
Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)
