Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!
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Pitching
MLB DK Pitcher Table
Corbin Burnes
Burnes is enjoying a potential Cy Young award winning season. Through 19 starts, he boasts a 2.39 ERA with a 2.35 xFIP and a 35% strikeout rate. He’s posted 20+ DK points in 6 of his last 7 starts, including a 43.2 DK point performance against the Cincinnati Reds. Burnes gets an elite matchup against the Chicago Cubs tonight. They lead the MLB in strikeout rate by a wide margin since the trade deadline, and they don’t feature an offense that’s likely to get to an ace throughout the game. Burnes is a -213 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, and he’s an elite option in all leagues.
Kevin Gausman
If you have the ability to spend up for both pitchers, Gausman and Burnes are the best pairing on this slate. The former owns a 2.31 ERA with a 3.37 xFIP and a 30.2% strikeout rate through 22 starts. Gausman’s seen mixed results in recent games, but he gets a great matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight. They’re striking out at the second-highest rate on the slate over the last 14 days, and they’ve struggled offensively over that span. Overall, Gausman’s averaging nearly 30 DK points per game against them this season. He’s a -250 favorite in a game set at only 7.5 runs tonight, and Gausman’s an elite option in all leagues tonight.
Tyler Anderson
Anderson hasn’t looked great throughout the season, posting a 4.35 ERA with a 4.44 xFIP and a 19.6% strikeout rate through 20 starts. He flashed 28 DK point upside in a recent start, although he’s generally struggled with upside. With that being said, Anderson gets a great matchup against the Texas Rangers, who feature the coldest offense in the MLB at the moment. Anderson’s a -191 favorite in a game set at 8 runs tonight. He’s the top salary relief cash option on a slate without many great pitching options.
Other GPP Targets: Marcus Stroman, Adam Wainwright, Alek Manoah, Frankie Montas, Touki Toussaint
Top DraftKings Batters
MLB Top Batters
Top FanDuel Batters
FD MLB Top Batters
Batters
C
Omar Narvaez
Narvaez has seen mixed results in recent games, posting a .231 average with a .436 slugging percentage and a .715 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 8 RBIs. Most importantly, he gets an outstanding matchup against Jake Arrieta, and he boasts a .365 wOBA and a .172 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Narvaez is expected to hit fifth in the Milwaukee Brewers lineup, and he’s an outstanding option at a weak position tonight.
Yadier Molina
Molina’s been struggling a bit in recent games. Over his last 10 contests, he’s hitting for a .250 average without any extra-base hits, 4 RBIs, and 1 stolen base. Molina gets a great matchup against Wil Crowe and a struggling Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen, though. Although he’s been better against left-handed pitching, this is still an outstanding matchup for Molina and company. He’s relatively cheap for the situation he’s in, and I’m willing to buy the situation over the player here. Molina’s expected to hit fifth in the St. Louis Cardinals lineup, and he can be considered in all leagues.
1B
Trey Mancini
Mancini’s been ice cold in recent games, posting a .143 average with 3 extra-base hits over his last 10 games. With that being said, he boasts a .384 wOBA and a .279 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Mancini also owns a 41.3% fly ball rate against lefties, and he gets a matchup against Tarik Skubal, who’s struggled with home runs this season. The Baltimore first baseman is expected to hit third in the Orioles lineup tonight, and he can be considered in all leagues for his price tag.
Rowdy Tellez
Tellez is finally cooling off for the Milwaukee Brewers, posting a .250 average with a .375 slugging percentage and a .689 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 2 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 6 RBIs over that span. Most importantly, Tellez gets an elite matchup against Jake Arrieta in Chicago tonight. He’s only expected to hit seventh in the Milwaukee lineup, but he can be considered in all leagues because of his low price ag in this matchup.
2B
Max Muncy
Muncy’s found plenty of success in recent games, recording a .286 average with a .452 slugging percentage and a .814 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 5 extra-base hits (1 home run), 6 RBIs, and 1 stolen base in those contests. Muncy gets a solid matchup against Kyle Gibson, who’s due for regression in the second half of this season. He enters this game with a .396 wOBA and a .275 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Muncy’s hitting second in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, and he can be used in all leagues if you have the salary tonight.
Abraham Toro
Toro’s been playing at an extremely high level since joining the Seattle Mariners. Over his last 10 games, he owns a .316 average with a .474 slugging percentage and a .883 OPS. He’s recorded 4 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 3 RBIs in those games. Toro gets an interesting matchup against Spencer Howard (opener) and Taylor Hearn (long reliever). I mention both because Howard is likely to throw more than an inning like most openers. Toro’s expected to hit fifth in the Seattle lineup, and he can be used in all leagues as a salary relief option tonight.
3B
Nolan Arenado
As Ben and I stated in our daily MLB Podcast, Arenado is both of our top options at third base. He’s posted a .263 average with a .447 slugging percentage and a .764 OPS over his last 10 games. In those contests, he owns 3 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 7 RBIs. Arenado gets a great matchup against Wil Crowe, who’s struggled against right-handed batters this season. The Pittsburgh Pirates also feature one of the worst bullpens in the MLB. Arenado’s hitting in the heart of the St. Louis Cardinals lineup, and he can be used in all leagues tonight.
Kyle Seager
Seager’s in an interesting spot for the Seattle Mariners tonight. He’s a high upside player, recording a .225 average with a .550 slugging percentage and a .823 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 5 extra-base hits (4 home runs), 10 RBIs, and 1 stolen base in those contests. Seager’s been significantly better against right-handed pitching, and his matchup will start against Spencer Howard. He’ll then see Taylor Hearn, who is playing the role of the long reliever. Although Hearn’s a lefty, I still prefer Seager in this matchup. He’s been playing well enough to be considered in all leagues.
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SS
Willy Adames
Adames continues to enjoy an elite season for the Milwaukee Brewers, and that’s been the case over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns a .300 average with a .750 slugging percentage and a 1.114 OPS. He boasts 8 extra-base hits (5 home runs) and 7 RBIs in those games. Adames gets an elite matchup against Jake Arrieta, and he’s in one of the best hitting spots on the slate. He isn’t going to come cheap at this point, but he’s one of a few elite options at this position tonight.
Corey Seager
Seager recently returned from injury, and he’s surprisingly cheap tonight. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting for a .314 average with a .486 slugging percentage and a .876 OPS. He recorded 4 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 3 RBIs in those games. Seager’s expected to hit fourth in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, and he gets a great matchup against Kyle Gibson tonight. He’s significantly cheaper than I was expecting him to be in this game, making him an outstanding option on this slate.
OF
George Springer
Springer’s my top spend up at this point. He’s been on fire, recording a .325 average with a .700 slugging percentage and a 1.064 OPS over his last 10 games. He’s posted 8 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 11 RBIs in those contests. Springer gets a great matchup against Dylan Bundy tonight. He’s leading off for the Toronto Blue Jays, who boast one of the best offenses on the slate, and Springer can be used in all leagues tonight.
Austin Hays
Hays should be one of the chalkier options on this slate. He’s been playing well, hitting for a .268 average with a .439 slugging percentage and a .707 OPS over his last 10 games. He’s recorded 3 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 5 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over that span. Hays gets a plus matchup against Tarik Skubal, who’s struggled with home runs this season. He enters this game with .110 wOBA and .090 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. Hays is hitting second in the Baltimore Orioles lineup, and he’s far too cheap on this slate.
Tyler O’Neill
O’Neill’s currently day-to-day, but he’s a great option if he’s starting. Over his last 10 games, he boasts a .364 average with a .515 slugging percentage and a 1.003 OPS. He owns 3 extra-base hits (1 home run), 1 RBI, and 1 stolen base in those games. As mentioned above, Wil Crowe’s struggled against right-handed batters, and O’Neill’s expected to hit fourth in the St. Louis Cardinals lineup. If healthy, he’s an outstanding option in all leagues for his current price tag.
Hunter Renfroe
Renfroe’s seen mixed results in recent games, although he continues to flash tremendous upside. He’s hitting for a .211 average with a .605 slugging percentage and a .836 OPS over his last 10 games. He posted 7 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 7 RBIs in those contests. Renfroe gets a solid matchup against Josh Fleming, and he brings a .357 wOBA and a .220 ISO against left-handed pitching into this game. Renfroe’s expected to hit second in the Boston Red Sox lineup, and he’s a high upside option for a surprisingly low price tag on this slate.
Stacks
“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen
Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch
DraftKings Team Stacks
DK MLB Stacks
FanDuel Team Stacks
FD MLB Stacks
“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)
Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.
When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.
We have another sizeable 11 game slate without many top pitchers. There are plenty of great stacking options to consider, and my five favorites are listed below.
DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas
MIL – Wong/Adames/Yelich/Narvaez/Escobar
STL – Carlson/Goldschmidt/Arenado/O’Neill/Molina
NYM – Nimmo/McNeil/Alonso/Smith/Conforto
LAD – Turner/Muncy/Smith/Seager/Pollock
BAL – Mullins/Hays/Mancini/Santander/Urias
DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas
MIL – Adames/Yelich/Narvaez
LAD – Turner/Muncy/Seager
STL – Goldschmidt/Arenado/O’Neill
BAL – Mullins/Hays/Mancini
BOS – Hernandez/Renfroe/Bogaerts
Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)
