Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!
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Pitching
MLB DK Pitcher Table
Max Scherzer
Scherzer’s priced back up tonight, but he still makes an elite option on this slate. Through 20 starts, he boasts a 2.75 ERA with a 3.43 xFIP and a 34.5% strikeout rate. He’s posted 20+ DK points in 8 of his last 10 starts, including a pair of games with 30+ DK points. Scherzer gets somewhat of a tough matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies, who haven’t been striking out in recent games. With that being said, Scherzer boasts elite stuff, and I prefer his skill over any offense, even at his current price. He’s a -165 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, and he can be considered in all leagues. With that being said, there are several great pitching options on this slate, and Scherzer isn’t a lock tonight.
Alex Wood
Wood’s reinvented himself with the San Francisco Giants this season, recording a 4.03 ERA with a 3.68 xFIP and a 25.1% strikeout rate through 19 starts. He’s found drastically more success at home, where he’s averaging 18.3 DK points per game this season. Wood gets a plus matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have struggled on the road this season. Arizona also owns a terrible .266 team wOBA and a slate-high 27.1% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. Wood’s expensive tonight, but he’s a -225 favorite in a game set at 8 runs. He can be considered in all leagues.
Jake Odorizzi
Odorizzi is the clear-cut top salary relief option on this slate. He’s seen mixed results through 15 games (14 starts), posting a 4.95 ERA with a 4.70 xFIP and a 21.4% strikeout rate. Odorizzi’s flashed at times in 2021, and he gets an elite matchup against the Colorado Rockies. Although Colorado’s found success in recent games, they feature the worst road offense in the MLB, and they’ll be traveling to Houston tonight. Odorizzi’s currently a -177 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs. Ownership could shift to Carlos Carrasco if they announce that his pitch limit has increased, but a fully healthy Odorizzi feels like the safer bet at this point in time. Check back in our free Discord prior to lock to see which player we like more tonight.
Other GPP Targets: Sean Manaea, Logan Gilbert, Ross Stripling, Carlos Carrasco, Zac Gallen, Sonny Gray
Top DraftKings Batters
MLB Top Batters
Top FanDuel Batters
FD MLB Top Batters
Batters
C
Eric Haase
Haase’s been enjoying an outstanding season for the Detroit Tigers, although he’s cooled off in recent games. He’s hitting for a .237 average with a .368 slugging percentage and a .618 OPS over his last 10 contests. Over that span, he owns 3 extra-base hits (1 home run), 5 RBIs, and 1 stolen base. Haase gets an outstanding matchup against Keegan Akin tonight. He enters this game with a .449 wOBA and a .402 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Haase isn’t going to come cheap, but he’s an outstanding option if you’re spending up at catcher tonight.
Mitch Garver
Garver’s only hitting for a .189 average over his last 10 games, although he owns a .486 slugging percentage and a .736 OPS over that span. He boasts 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 9 RBIs in those games, as well. Garver’s expected to hit fourth in the Minnesota Twins lineup, and he gets a plus matchup against Dallas Keuchel tonight. He’s recorded a .358 wOBA and a .258 ISO against left-handed pitching throughout his career, and he’s a bit underpriced for his ceiling at this position.
1B
Matt Olson
This selection came down to Olson and Paul Goldschmidt with the former slightly more appealing to me tonight. He’s posted a .286 average with a .514 slugging percentage and a .959 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 6 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 7 RBIs over that span. Most importantly, Olson gets a great matchup against Triston McKenzie, who’s struggled with a 4.99 xFIP and a 1.92 HR/9 this season. He’s been a reverse splits hitter this season, although he boasts a .372 wOBA and a .275 ISO against right-handed pitching throughout his career. Olson’s hitting third in the Oakland A’s lineup, and he’s an elite option in all leagues.
Pete Alonso
Alonso’s been one of the coldest hitters in the MLB, although his price tag has dipped far too much for this matchup. Overall, he’s hitting for a .086 average with 1 home, 1 RBI, and 1 stolen base over his last 10 games. Alonso gets a matchup against Paolo Espino and a struggling Washington Nationals bullpen. Although he’s been struggling, he’s a high upside option, especially for his current price tag. Alonso can be considered in all leagues because of his price, but he may be best suited for tournaments on this large of a slate.
2B
Whit Merrifield
Merrifield continues to struggle a bit for the Kansas City Royals. He’s hitting for a .195 average without any extra-base hits over his last 10 games. With that being said, he owns 1 RBI and 6 stolen bases over that span. Even with his recent struggles, he boasts plenty of upside because of his speed. Merrifield gets a plus matchup against Nestor Cortes tonight, and he brings .045 wOBA and .022 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game. He continues to lead off for Kansas City, and he’s entirely too cheap for his versatility and talent.
Jorge Polanco
Polanco could be the most mispriced player on the entire slate. He’s been playing at an extremely high level for the Minnesota Twins, posting a .302 average with a .698 slugging percentage and a 1.046 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he boasts 7 extra-base hits (5 home runs) and 10 RBIs. Although Polanco’s been slightly better against right-handed pitching this season, he still gets a plus matchup against Dallas Keuchel tonight. I’m not worried about the matchup against a lefty, and Polanco can be considered in all leagues for a ridiculous price tag tonight.
3B
Rafael Devers
If you listened to our MLB Podcast, you know how much I hate this position, especially tonight. Devers is a top option, although he’s been struggling a bit in recent games. He owns a .297 average with 2 extra-base hits and 1 RBI over his last 10 games. With that being said, he gets a great matchup against Luis Patino tonight. Devers enters this game with a .403 wOBA and a .343 ISO against right-handed pitching. He’s hitting in one of the best offenses in the MLB, making him an elite high-priced option at arguably the weakest position on the slate.
Ke’Bryan Hayes
Hayes has seen mixed results this season, and he owns a .205 average with 4 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 3 RBIs over his last 10 games. He gets a great matchup against J.A. Happ and the St. Louis Cardinals bullpen tonight. Hayes enters this game with a .368 wOBA and a .198 ISO against left-handed pitching throughout his career. He’s expected to hit second in the Pittsburgh lineup, and he makes a solid option in all leagues for his current price tag.
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SS
Tim Anderson
Anderson’s been heating up in recent games, recording a .304 average with a .543 slugging percentage and a .848 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 8 RBIs over that span. Anderson gets an elite matchup against Griffin Jax, who features one of the worst arms on the slate. He’s leading off for the Chicago White Sox, who are projected as one of the best offenses tonight, and he’s an elite option if you can afford his salary tonight.
Kyle Farmer
Another day, another Farmer recommendation. He’s an easy plug-and-play for his price tag. Over his last 10 games, he’s posted a .310 average with a .476 slugging percentage and a .802 OPS. He recorded 4 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 7 RBIs in those games. Farmer gets an elite matchup against Drew Smyly, and he boasts a .399 wOBA and a .254 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Farmer’s hitting sixth in the Cincinnati Reds lineup, and he’s an elite option at another relatively weak position.
OF
New York Yankees
I’m going back to the New York outfielders in an elite matchup on this slate. Daniel Lynch’s struggled in the MLB, and Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are two powerful options that can take advantage of this matchup. Joey Gallo can quietly be considered in all leagues, as he’s been better against left-handed pitching than people give him credit for. Finally, Jonathan Davis is tentatively expected to lead off for New York, giving you a salary relief option to consider in this outfield.
Cedric Mullins
Mullins continues to enjoy an elite season for the Baltimore Orioles. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting for a .333 average with a .615 slugging percentage and a 1.038 OPS. He boasts 4 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 4 RBIs, and 5 stolen bases. He’s averaging over 10 DK points per game at home this season, as well. Mullins gets a plus matchup against Casey Mize, and he enters this game with a .397 wOBA and a .240 ISO against right-handed pitching. He’s leading off for Baltimore, and Mullins makes an elite option in all leagues tonight.
Nick Castellanos
Castellanos hasn’t performed overly well since returning from injury, recording 6.8 DK points per game in his 5 games back. He’s flashed upside over that span, though. He gets a great matchup against Drew Smyly tonight, and Castellanos has looked outstanding against left-handed pitching throughout his career. He’s expected to hit third in the Cincinnati Reds offense, and he’s a player that can always be considered with a price tag below $5k. The great matchup is an added bonus.
Luis Robert
Robert returned last night, scoring 10 DK points against the Minnesota Twins. On the season, he’s hitting for a .320 average with 12 extra-base hits (1 home run), 9 RBIs, and 4 stolen bases. He gets an elite matchup against Griffin Jax tonight, and Robert is entirely too cheap for his outstanding combination of speed and power. Even though he’s hitting later in the Chicago White Sox lineup, he’s an elite option in all leagues on this slate.
Stacks
“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen
Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch
DraftKings Team Stacks
DK MLB Stacks
FanDuel Team Stacks
FD MLB Stacks
“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)
Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.
When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.
We’re back to a massive 15 game slate tonight, although 2 of those games are only 7 innings tonight. There are several elite hitting spots, and my five favorites are listed below.
DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas
CHW – Anderson/Hernandez/Abreu/Jimenez/Robert
NYY – LeMahieu/Judge/Gallo/Stanton/Voit
CIN – India/Winker/Castllanos/Votto/Farmer
OAK – Canha/Marte/Olson/Lowrie/Harrison
NYM – Nimmo/McNeil/Alonso/Smith/Conforto
DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas
CHW – Anderson/Abreu/Jimenez
NYY – Judge/Stanton/Voit
CIN – Castellanos/Votto/Farmer
OAK – Canha/Marte/Olson
DET – Grossman/Schoop/Haase
Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)
