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Pitching
MLB DK Pitcher Table
Taijuan Walker
Walker was one of the top plays on yesterday’s slate, but was rained out. He draws the same match-up tonight against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and can be considered in all formats. Walker has been a breakout pitcher for the Mets this season pitching to a 3.59 SIERA with 25% strikeouts. This isn’t what I would call a “high-upside” match-up as the Pirates rank 26th in K% against RHP. Despite the low strikeout numbers, they also own the third-lowest wRC+ (82) and last in ISO (.124). This isn’t a good offense, and that makes Walker one of the safest options tonight.
Kenta Maeda
I haven’t rostered Maeda much this season, but tonight is the night to jump in. Detroit has been one of the best match-ups for a right-handed pitcher this season, striking out 26% of the time as a team. His numbers have remained inconsistent over the last month, but they come with a 28% strikeout rate. He has similar upside to Walker and Charlie Morton, but is significantly less in salary on DK. This is a watered down pitching slate for it being so many games, and I’m willing to label Maeda my number one option.
Zach Thompson
Casual fans may not fully know Zach Thompson yet, but he has impressed early on for the Marlins. We have a five start sample-size so far, resulting in a 3.25 SIERA and 32% strikeout rate. These are extremely promising numbers and he has gotten to six innings in each of his last two starts. This is a tough match-up against the Atlanta Braves, but he gets a boost with this game taking place at home in Miami. I don’t expect him to feature much ownership, but I love his upside and price tag and would consider him a top tournament pivot on Friday night.
Other GPP Targets: Charlie Morton, Alex Cobb
Top DraftKings Batters
MLB Top Batters
Top FanDuel Batters
FD MLB Top Batters
Batters
C
We are always loaded with catching options on these big slates, but I expect ownership to concentrate on JT Realmuto once again. He will continue to be a buy-low candidate for me on DK while they price him like this, and his numbers vs righties (.372 wOBA) are actually pretty solid this season.
If looking for tournament pivots, Max Stassi and Tyler Stephenson provide power for cheap prices.
1B
Rhys Hoskins
You’ll notice that the Phillies are featured in this article quite a bit today, and we lead off first with Rhys Hoskins. Philly matches up with Garrett Richards who has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season. Richards has pitched to a 5.10 SIERA and allowing over 44% hard hits to both sides of the plate. Hoskins has the second-highest ISO on the Phillies since last season against right-handed pitching (.224) and it comes with an elite batted ball profile — 49% fly balls and 41% hard-contact.
Carlos Santana
Santana and the Royals are in an elite GPP spot tonight against Triston McKenzie. McKenzie has been one of the most inconsistent pitchers in the AL this season, which we can attribute to his huge 20% walk rate. Santana homered twice last night against his former team — and has solid batted ball numbers over the last two weeks with over 40% fly balls and hard hits. I think the Royals are one of the top tourney stacks tonight, and I would prefer to full stack them rather than any one-offs due to the control issues for McKenzie.
2B
Whit Merrifield
Merrifield is one of my favorite players to roster in DFS, because he easily makes up for lack of power with his speed. He is leading the MLB with 24 steals, and has been pretty much the most aggressive runner on the bases this season. He has dipped below $5K on DK tonight, and is a critical part of the Royals tournament stack. His surface numbers look average against right-handed pitching this season, but they come with a big 14% walk rate. Should be walk to start the game, he could very easily steal second and third and give you the “poor man’s” homerun rather than hitting one out of the park. McKenzie also is over 50% fast balls, a pitch that Merrifield hits well for a .390 wOBA (2nd best on the team).
Jean Segura
Segura is a cheaper part of the Phillies stack, that I think will be chalky once again tonight in this good of a spot. Segura has been primarily a ground ball hitter (52% GB rate last two seasons) but the risk is minimized with Richards’ allowing just 41% grounders to right-handed batters. Segura has been hitting the ball hard over the last two weeks with a 46% hard-hit rate over that span.
3B
Jose Ramirez
Brad Keller is one of the most attackable pitchers in baseball, allowing a .383 wOBA and 90 EV to left-handed batters. Ramirez has been pretty much the lone consistent batter for the Indians this season, and while still expensive, he actually feels somewhat at a discount for this match-up. His most used pitch to lefties is his sinker — a pitch that Ramirez has had success against with a 56% hard-contact rate.
Kyle Seager
Seager will continue to be a strong one-off candidate for me with his elite 50% fly ball and hard-contact rate against right-handed pitching this season. Cobb has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball this season. If looking to target him, you need someone that can get the ball up in the air to combat his over 50% ground ball rate. Seager possesses that ability, and he can be used as a value option on DK.
SS
Willy Adames
Adames has been on fire since joining the Brewers, and the numbers reflect that. Over the last 30 days, he ranks third on the roster with a 45% hard-contact rate. He has the best batter ball numbers on this team against left-handed pitching as well, with well over 55% fly balls and hard hits. He is expensive, but also my HR call for tonight’s slate.
Adames is the only SS I’m choosing to write up, but I’m not sure if I will be able to afford him on my optimal build. If I need more salary relief, I would be focusing on Didi Gregorius to continue my Phillies stack, or Francisco Lindor who has dropped way too low on DK.
OF
Bryce Harper + Andrew McCutchen
We finish up our Phillies talk with Bryce Harper and the Phillies OF. Harper is a no-brainer play sporting a massive .407 wOBA vs right-handed pitching since the start of 2020 and coming into tonight in top form. McCutchen is must cheaper at only $3,200 on DK and will be one of the highest-owned batters on the slate. I would be looking to build around these guys in cash games, but you can always look to pivot in tournaments if you choose not to stack Philadelphia.
Austin Meadows
Alek Manoah has flashed upside for the Blue Jays this season, but he us giving up above-average hard-contact and fly balls to left-handed batters. These are the types of match-ups we want to target Meadows in, he hits the ball hard and in the air and has been the best hitter on the Rays vs righties this season. I likely won’t be stacking up TB tonight, so Meadows can be considered a strong one-off in GPP formats.
Trevor Larnach
Matt Manning has not looked ready for the majors since joining the rotation, striking out just 5% of batters! Larnach is under $3,000 on DraftKings once again and actually owns the highest wOBA in this lineup vs righties this season at .383.
Stacks
“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen
Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch
DraftKings Team Stacks
DK MLB Stacks
FanDuel Team Stacks
FD MLB Stacks
“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)
Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.
When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.
There are only seven games tonight with some aces on the mound, limiting the number of elite stacks available. With that being said, there are plenty of pitchers to attack, and my favorite stacks are listed below.
DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas
Stacks will be posted soon!
DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas
Stacks will be posted soon!
Written by BenHossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
