Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!
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Pitching
MLB DK Pitcher Table
Corbin Burnes
The majority of the pitchers on this slate can be used, and it’s going to be difficult to go in the wrong direction, especially near the top. Burnes is my top option, though, as I believe he’s the best pitcher in the MLB besides Jacob deGrom. He enters this game with a 2.16 ERA, 2.07 xFIP, and 37.2% strikeout rate through 16 starts. Burnes struggled for a couple of games a bit ago but posted 22+ DK points, including a 43.2 DK point performance in his last game, over each of his last 4 starts. Burnes gets somewhat of a tough matchup against the Chicago White Sox, but I favorite elite pitching over hitting. He’s a -125 favorite in a game set at 7 runs and the top option tonight.
Kevin Gausman
You’ll have the opportunity to pair two elite pitchers together tonight, as there are several on this slate. Gausman is my favorite SP2 option, bringing a 1.84 ERA with a 3.41 xFIP and a 30.5% strikeout rate through 19 starts into this game. The San Francisco Giants ace is making his case for the Cy Young Award, and he gets a plus matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight. Gausman posted 37 DK points against them in their only matchup this season, and he’s averaging 28.1 DK points per game at home in 2021. He’s a -259 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, and Gausman may be the safest option on the slate, especially on DraftKings, where his price tag is a bit too low.
Tony Gonsolin
Gonsolin is an enigma. There’s no other way to put it. Through 8 games (7 starts), he owns a 2.83 ERA with a 26.8% strikeout rate. His xFIP sits at 5.08, suggesting he’s due for massive regression. With that being said, he hasn’t been an overly lucky pitcher (.271 BABIP) or been hit hard (25.7% hard-hit rate) this season. The biggest concern is his 50% fly-ball rate, although it’s been over 40% in every MLB season for him up to this point. Even if Gonsolin is due for regression, I don’t expect it to come against the Colorado Rockies, who are the worst road team in the MLB. He’s a -252 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs tonight, and Gonsolin can be considered in all leagues on this slate.
Other GPP Targets: Carlos Rodon, Chris Bassitt, Framber Valdez, Luis Castillo
Top DraftKings Batters
MLB Top Batters
Top FanDuel Batters
FD MLB Top Batters
Batters
C
Will Smith
Smith’s found plenty of success in recent games for an injured Los Angeles Dodgers offense. He owns a .265 average with a .588 slugging percentage and a .954 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he’s posted 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 15 RBIs, and 1 stolen base. Smith gets one of the best matchups on the slate against Kyle Freeland, who’s struggled the majority of this season. The LA catcher’s expected to hit fourth in arguably the best lineup on the slate, making him an elite option if you have extra money at this position.
Tucker Barnhart
If you’re going to spend up on two pitchers tonight, you’re going to have to save salary somewhere. Catcher is the most obvious position, and Barnhart is a great option. He’s hitting for a .281 average over his last 10 games, although he only owns 1 extra-base hit and 3 RBIs over that span. Barnhart gets a great matchup against Jake Woodford, which is one of very few matchups I like on this slate. He also owns a .341 wOBA and a .128 ISO against right-handed pitching. Barnhart will likely hit later in the Cincinnati Reds lineup, but he’s a great salary relief option for this slate.
1B
Joey Votto
Votto continues to be priced up, and I continue to consider him. He’s been playing well for Cincinnati, recording a 3.06 average with 3 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 5 RBIs over his last 10 games. More importantly, Votto’s hitting for a .298 average with a .543 slugging percentage and a .923 OPS at home this season. He gets a great matchup against Jake Woodford tonight, and Votto enters this game with a .446 wOBA and a .292 ISO against right-handed pitching in Cincinnati. He’s a player that can be considered in all leagues.
LaMonte Wade Jr.
Continuing the salary relief trend, Wade is entirely too cheap on this slate. He’s only hitting for a .222 average over his last 10 games, but he boasts 5 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 7 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over that span. He’s also scored double-digit DK points in 4 of his last 5 games. Wade gets an elite matchup against Wil Crowe, who’s struggled with home runs this season. He also owns .320 wOBA and .298 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching, although he has very few at-bats against lefties this season. Wade’s leading off for the San Francisco Giants, and he’s an outstanding option for his price tag.
2B
Chris Taylor
Taylor’s caught fire for the Los Angeles Dodgers over his last 10 games. Over that span, he’s hitting for a .333 average with 6 extra-base hits (4 home runs), 8 RBIs, and 1 stolen base. He gets an elite matchup against Kyle Freeland, and Taylor owns a .431 wOBA and a .296 ISO against left-handed pitching in 2021. He’s expected to lead off for Los Angeles tonight. Similar to the majority of the Dodgers players, you aren’t going to get Taylor cheap, but he’s an elite option in all leagues if you can fit him.
Donovan Solano
Solano is another solid option for the San Francisco Giants that comes in with a cheap price tag tonight. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting for a .282 average with 1 extra-base hit, 1 RBI, and 1 stolen base. He doesn’t boast elite upside like some of the other members of the offense, but he also doesn’t truly need it for his price tag. Solano gets a great matchup against Wil Crowe, who is arguably the worst pitcher on the slate. He’s only expected to hit sixth in the San Francisco lineup, but he’s an easy way to get two elite pitchers into your lineup tonight.
3B
Justin Turner
Turner continues to make an elite option if you’re willing to pay for his high price tag. He owns a .324 average with a .735 slugging percentage and a 1.150 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 6 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 13 RBIs over that span. Turner’s been a dominant option against left-handed pitching throughout his career, and he gets an elite matchup against Kyle Freeland tonight. If you can afford him, Turner is one of the top plays on the entire slate.
J.D. Davis
Davis recently returned from injury, and his price tag hasn’t matched his talent at this point. Through 5 full games since returning, he’s averaging 10.2 DK points per game, while flashing outstanding upside. Davis gets a tough matchup against Hyun Jin Ryu, although he’s been slightly more consistent and more powerful against left-handed pitching throughout his career. He’ll hit in the heart of the New York Mets order, and he’s a solid option at a position I don’t love tonight.
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SS
Wander Franco
Franco hasn’t been overly successful in recent games, but he continues to show upside. He owns a .238 average with 2 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 3 RBIs over his last 10 games. He also comes with stolen base potential on any given slate. Franco gets a solid matchup against J.C. Mejia, which is one of the better matchups on this slate. Furthermore, he owns a .364 average with a .568 slugging percentage and a .946 OPS on the road this season. Keep in mind, the sample size is limited, but Franco makes a high upside option.
Harold Castro
Shortstop is probably my least favorite position on the slate tonight, and I don’t hate the idea of punting it. Castro’s been on fire in recent games, recording a .412 average over his last 10 contests. He comes with virtually no power, though, and he doesn’t offer stolen base upside. Essentially, you’re banking on a multi-hit game or for him to get a hit with runners in scoring position. Castro’s extremely cheap in a matchup against Carlos Hernandez tonight, and he’s a decent salary relief option at a bad position on this slate.
OF
AJ Pollock
Pollock’s another Los Angeles Dodgers player that’s found tremendous success in recent games. Over his last 10 contests, he’s hitting for a .378 average with a .703 slugging percentage and a 1.155 OPS. He owns 6 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 5 RBIs in those games. Pollock gets an elite matchup against Kyle Freeland, and he’s expected to hit second for the Dodgers. Pollock is entirely too cheap on this slate, and he’s an elite option in all leagues.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are without Nick Castellanos for the time being, but they still feature three outfielders that can be used tonight. Jesse Winker and Tyler Naquin are the top options, as they will benefit from a matchup against the right-handed Jake Woodford. Aristides Aquino is the third option that can also be considered on this slate. Each is expected to hit in the first five of the offense, making them that much more appealing tonight.
Akil Baddoo
Baddoo continues to perform well for the Detroit Tigers, posting a .268 average with 4 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 11 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over his last 10 games. He gets a great matchup against Carlos Hernandez tonight, and he enters this game with a .392 wOBA and a .259 ISO against right-handed pitching. Baddoo is expected to lead off for Detroit, and he’s one of the most underpriced players on this slate. He can be used in all leagues tonight.
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay has five outfield eligible options and each can be used. Brandon Lowe’s been the hottest of the group, and he’s my top option. Austin Meadows will also benefit from the matchup against J.C. Mejia, as he’s at his best against right-handed pitching. Nelson Cruz and Randy Arozarena are high-priced players that come with more than enough upside to consider against bad pitching. Finally, Kevin Kiermaier will hit near the bottom of the order, but he’s been playing well and can be used as a salary relief option on this slate.
Stacks
“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen
Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch
DraftKings Team Stacks
DK MLB Stacks
FanDuel Team Stacks
FD MLB Stacks
“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)
Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.
When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.
We have a big slate tonight, but there are very few stacks I like because of the outstanding pitching. I do believe there are some pitchers that can be attacked, though, and my favorite stacks are below.
DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas
LAD – Taylor/Pollock/Turner/Smith/Pujols
CIN – India/Winker/Stephenson/Votto/Naquin
SF – Wade/Posey/Yastrzemski/Flores/Dickerson
DET – Baddoo/Schoop/Grossman/Haase/Candelario
TB – Lowe/Cruz/Meadows/Arozarena/Franco
DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas
LAD – Taylor/Pollock/Turner
CIN – Winker/Votto/Naquin
SF – Wade/Posey/Yastrzemski
TB – Lowe/Cruz/Meadows
DET – Baddoo/Grossman/Haase
Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)
