Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!
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Pitching
MLB DK Pitcher Table
Lance McCullers
McCullers is throwing at an extremely high level this season, posting a 3.89 xFIP with a 27.4% strikeout rate through 15 starts. He gets a plus matchup against the Cleveland Indians, who he scored 21.4 DK points against in their only matchup of the season. McCullers has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in each of his last 6 games, posting 8+ strikeouts in each of his last 3. He’s currently a -227 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, and he’s the top pitching option on this slate.
Julio Urias
Urias is another pitcher that has found plenty of success this season. He boasts a 3.62 xFIP to go along with a 26.8% strikeout rate through 19 starts. Urias gets a matchup against the San Francisco Giants, who he’s seen mixed results against this season. In their 2 matchups, Urias owns 31.7 and 1.5 DK point performances. He’s a -155 favorite in a game set at 8 runs tonight. There are a few solid options for an SP2 to pair with McCullers, and if you have the salary, Urias is a great option.
Asher Wojciechowski
Wojciechowski is a bit of a wildcard on this slate. He’ll draw the start for the New York Yankees, but he’s struggled in limited minor league innings this season. In 2020, Wojciechowski also struggled with a 5.68 xFIP and an 18.5% strikeout rate. With that being said, he’s the minimum price on this slate, and he’s a pitcher that has the ability to throw 5+ when he’s throwing well. One of the more interesting factors for Wojciechowski is that he’s a -125 favorite in a game set at 9 runs. He isn’t a player that can be trusted in cash games, but he’s an interesting tournament option if you need to spend up on bats tonight.
Other GPP Targets: Robbie Ray, Adam Wainwright, Logan Webb, Dylan Cease
Top DraftKings Batters
MLB Top Batters
Top FanDuel Batters
FD MLB Top Batters
Batters
C
Danny Jansen
There are a few solid spend-up options at catcher tonight. With that being said, Jansen is still a bit too cheap. He’s been playing well, recording a .333 average with a .714 slugging percentage and a 1.154 OPS over his last 10 games. He gets a great matchup against Garrett Richards, who has been struggling with his recent form. The Toronto Blue Jays are one of the top offenses on the slate, and Jansen will be a cheap way to get exposure to them. He’ll likely hit ninth in the lineup, but he’s a great salary relief option at a weak position.
Jonah Heim
Heim is another great punt option at this position. He’s been struggling a bit in recent games, posting a .212 average with 1 home run, 3 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over his last 10 games. With that being said, Heim comes with an extremely low price tag and plenty of upside. He gets a great matchup against Matt Manning, who’s struggled early in his career, specifically with strikeouts. Heim’s expected to hit fifth in the Texas Rangers lineup, and he can be considered in all leagues tonight.
1B
Vlad Guerrero Jr.
Guerrero’s quietly seen mixed results in recent games. With that being said, he still owns a .257 average with a .629 slugging percentage and a .936 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 5 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 9 RBIs in those contests. Guerrero gets an elite matchup against Garrett Richards, and he enters this game with a .475 wOBA and a .375 ISO against right-handed pitching. He isn’t going to come cheap, but he’s an elite option in all leagues if you have the salary.
Nate Lowe
Lowe’s struggled mightily in recent games, recording a .179 average with little power over his last 10 games. With that being said, he’s featured more power on the road this season, and he’ll be playing in Detroit tonight. Lowe gets a great matchup against Matt Manning, who continues to struggle for the Detroit Tigers. The Rangers’ first baseman also owns a .045 ISO differential against right-handed pitching. Lowe’s expected to hit second in the Texas lineup, and he’s a high upside option for his current price tag.
2B
Jose Altuve
Second base looks like a position I want to spend up on tonight. Altuve’s coming off of a massive 30 DK point performance last night. Overall, he’s posted a .195 average with 4 home runs and 8 RBIs over his last 10 games. He gets an elite matchup against Eli Morgan, who’s struggled with home runs this season. Altuve quietly boasts a .108 ISO differential against right-handed pitching in 2021. He’s leading off for the Houston Astros, and he’s an elite high-priced option on this slate.
Marcus Semien
The other elite spend-up at this position is Semien. Similar to some of the other Toronto players, he’s been struggling a bit recently. He owns a .167 average with a .361 slugging percentage and a .647 OPS over his last 10 games. Semien’s averaging 10.9 DK points per game in Toronto this season. He also gets an elite matchup against Garrett Richards, who we’re attacking this slate. Semien comes with as much upside as any second baseman on this slate.
3B
Yoan Moncada
Moncada’s caught fire in recent games, posting a .286 average with a .629 slugging percentage and a 1.047 OPS over his last 10 games. In those contests, he owns 6 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 7 RBIs. Moncada’s been significantly better at home this season, and he gets an interesting matchup against Michael Pineda tonight. He boasts .027 wOBA and .053 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching this season. Moncada’s expected to hit fifth in the Chicago White Sox lineup, and he’s an outstanding option on this slate.
Abraham Toro
Toro’s only hitting for a .182 average over his last 10 games. With that being said, he owns 2 extra-base hits (1 home run), 2 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases over that span. He’s also hitting for a .286 average with more upside in Houston. Most importantly, Toro gets a matchup against Eli Morgan, who’s struggled early in his career. The Houston third baseman is a cheap way to get a piece of their offense, which projects as one of the better ones on the slate.
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SS
Bo Bichette
Bichette is arguably the hottest hitter for the Toronto Blue Jays at the moment. He’s hitting for a .359 average with 2 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 7 RBIs over his last 10 games. Bichette gets an elite matchup against Garrett Richards, and he’ll be hitting second in the Toronto lineup tonight. He’s one of many outstanding high-priced shortstop options on this slate.
Harold Castro
If you’re looking to save salary at shortstop, Castro is a solid play. He boasts a .394 average with 1 extra-base hit and 4 RBIs over his last 10 games. He also gets an elite matchup against Jordan Lyles tonight. Castro also enters this game with .199 wOBA and .048 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He’s only expected to hit seventh in the Detroit lineup, but he can be considered as a salary relief option tonight.
OF
Toronto Blue Jays
Unsurprisingly, the enter Toronto outfield can be considered on this slate. The matchup against Garrett Richards is too good to pass up on arguably the best offense in the MLB. George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, and Randal Grichuk all hit one after another in the middle of the Toronto lineup. They are the priority three with Lourdes Gurriel ranking in a tier below them. For what it’s worth, Gurriel is the hottest hitter of the group entering this game.
Order: Springer, Hernandez, Grichuk, Gurriel
Akil Baddoo
Baddoo continues to make a high-upside option as the Detroit Tigers lead-off hitter. He owns a .238 average with a .429 slugging percentage and a .684 OPS over his last 10 games. He also boasts 3 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 10 RBIs, and 1 stolen base in those contests. Baddo gets an elite matchup against Jordan Lyles, and he brings a .394 wOBA and a .251 ISO against right-handed pitching into this game. His price tag is still far too cheap, and Baddoo can be used in all leagues tonight.
Kyle Tucker
Tucker’s been playing at an extremely high level for the Houston Astros. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting for a .382 average with a .794 slugging percentage and a 1.211 OPS. He also possesses 8 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 6 RBIs, and 4 stolen bases over that span. Tucker gets an elite matchup against Eli Morgan, and he’s a priority option for Houston. Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley can also be used for the Astros tonight.
Gavin Sheets
Sheets hasn’t been playing well in recent games, but he’s been moved up to second in the Chicago White Sox lineup. He only owns a .143 average over his last 10 games. With that being said, he’s posted 4 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 6 RBIs in those contests. Sheets get a solid matchup against Michael Pineda, and he’s an outstanding option as long as he’s hitting near the top of the order once again. Brian Goodwin can be considered for the White Sox, as well.
Stacks
“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen
Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch
DraftKings Team Stacks
DK MLB Stacks
FanDuel Team Stacks
FD MLB Stacks
“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)
Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.
When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.
We have a smaller slate tonight with a few solid pitchers on the mound. Still, there are plenty of ways to go with stacks, and my five favorites are listed below.
DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas
TOR – Semien/Bichette/Guerrero/Springer/Hernandez
HOU – Altuve/Brantley/Alvarez/Correa/Tucker
DET – Baddoo/Schoop/Grossman/Candelario/Haase
WAS – Escobar/Turner/Soto/Bell/Harrison
CWS – Anderson/Sheets/Abreu/Goodwin/Moncada
DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas
TOR – Semien/Bichette/Guerrero
HOU – Alvarez/Correa/Tucker
WAS – Turner/Soto/Bell
CWS – Sheets/Abreu/Moncada
DET – Baddoo/Schoop/Grossman
Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)
