This content will be dedicated to providing you with an easy-to-follow breakdown of the elite cash plays, GPP plays, and leverage stacks.
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Pitching
MLB DK Pitcher Table
Brandon Woodruff
Woodruff continues to be one of the best arms in the MLB in 2021. He enters this game with a 2.81 xFIP and a 31% strikeout rate through 15 starts. Woodruff gets a matchup against the Chicago Cubs, who he’s averaging 27.6 DK points per game against in 3 games this season. Although the Cubs come with plenty of pop throughout their lineup they also feature plenty of strikeouts in their offense. Woodruff is currently a -228 favorite in a game set at only 7.5 runs. He’s the priority spend-up tonight.
Robbie Ray
Ray’s been able to somewhat reinvent himself this season. His velocity is up and his walks are down. Overall, it’s resulted in a 3.16 xFIP through 14 starts to go along with a 31% strikeout rate. Ray gets an elite matchup against the Seattle Mariners, and he’s a -219 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs. Walker Buehler is currently projecting for more ownership than Ray, and the Dodgers ace is an elite play on this slate. With that being said, I slightly prefer Ray, especially at lower ownership. It may only matter in tournaments, though, as Woodruff sits a tier above Ray and Buehler tonight.
Lucas Giolito
Giolito’s in an interesting spot tonight. Ben and I were completely comfortable using him in this exact same matchup for slightly more than $10k last night. Instead, his price dipped to $8.7k for whatever reason tonight. Through 15 starts, Giolito owns a 3.55 xFIP and a 30.9% strikeout rate. After a slow start, he’s been throwing at a higher level in recent games, as well. Giolito gets a matchup against the Minnesota Twins, and he’s a -131 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs. He may go overlooked, as Charlie Morton is essentially the same price tag and projecting for significantly more ownership. Similar to Buehler, I have no issues with Morton tonight. I prefer Giolito, especially for lower ownership, though.
Other GPP Targets: Trevor Rogers, J.C. Mejia, Vince Velasquez, Kevin Gausman, German Marquez
Top DraftKings Batters
MLB Top Batters
Top FanDuel Batters
FD MLB Top Batters
Batters
C
Gary Sanchez
Sanchez has been playing at a high level in recent games, hitting for a .250 average with a .643 slugging percentage and a 1.025 OPS over his last 10 games. He gets an interesting matchup against Andrew Heaney, who’s seen mixed results and struggled with home runs at times this season. Sanchez also enters this game with a .101 ISO differential against left-handed pitching this season. He’s expected to hit third in the New York Yankees offense, and he’s the top spend-up at this position tonight.
Yadier Molina
Molina’s been struggling in recent games, posting a .176 average with 3 extra-base hits, 4 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over his last 10 games. With that being said, he gets an elite matchup against Caleb Smith tonight. Molina boasts a ridiculous .466 wOBA and a .375 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Furthermore, he’ll get an elite matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen once Smith is removed from the game. Molina’s entirely too cheap for hitting fifth in the St. Louis offense, as well.
1B
Freddie Freeman
Freeman’s always an elite option when he’s facing off against right-handed pitching in Atlanta. Through 40 home games, he’s hitting for a .265 average with 14 extra-base hits (10 home runs), 27 RBIs, and 3 stolen bases. Freeman also brings .109 wOBA and .079 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game. He gets a matchup against Tylor Megill, who isn’t expected to find continued success at the MLB level. If you have the money, Freeman is an elite option in all leagues.
Paul Goldschmidt
Goldschmidt’s seen mixed results throughout the season, and he boasts a .257 average with a .429 slugging percentage and a .762 OPS over his last 10 games. He’s struggled at times against left-handed pitching this season, but Goldschmidt has been a dominant option against southpaws throughout his career. He’ll benefit from an elite matchup against Caleb Smith and Arizona’s struggling bullpen. Similar to Molina, Goldschmidt’s a bit underpriced on this slate.
2B
Adam Frazier
There are several elite high-priced options on this slate, and Frazier is a way to save a few hundred dollars off of them. He’s been playing at an elite level, posting a .371 average with 3 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 4 RBIs over his last 10 games. Frazier gets a tough matchup against German Marquez, but he’ll be playing in Coors tonight. The majority of the options above $5k are great plays tonight, but Frazier makes a great pivot off of those plays.
Tony Kemp
Kemp’s been playing at a high level for the Oakland A’s for quite some time now. He’s hitting for a .276 average with 3 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 5 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over his last 10 games. More importantly, he’s been moved up to the leadoff spot for Oakland, giving him added value. Kemp gets an elite matchup against Mike Foltynewicz, and he owns a .372 wOBA and a .167 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
3B
Ryan McMahon
It’ll difficult to go wrong at the top of third base tonight, as there are several elite options. McMahon’s been struggling recently, but he’s found tremendous success in Coors this season. Through 41 home games, he’s hitting for a .277 average with 18 extra-base hits (9 home runs), 25 RBIs, and 1 stolen base. McMahon gets an elite matchup against Chase De Jong, who’s struggled throughout the season. He enters this game with .076 wOBA and .102 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching, and McMahon can be used in all leagues.
Nolan Arenado
With several elite expensive options at this position, Arenado should go overlooked in an elite matchup. He’s performed well in recent games, posting a .242 average with 7 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 6 RBIs over his last 10 games. Arenado’s been more consistent and more powerful against left-handed pitching this season, and he gets a great matchup against Caleb Smith. As is the case with all of St. Louis’ players, Arenado will benefit from the matchup against arguably the worst bullpen in the MLB at the moment. The Cardinals’ third baseman won’t come cheap tonight, but he’s an outstanding tournament option.
SS
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Unsurprisingly, Tatis is playing as well as anyone in the MLB at the moment. Over his last 10 games, he boasts a .412 average with 9 extra-base hits (5 home runs), 9 RBIs, and 3 stolen bases. Tatis isn’t going to come cheap, but his combination of power and speed makes him one of the best options on any given slate. He also gets a plus matchup against Tony Santillan in a hitter-friendly stadium. It may not be easy to get Tatis into your lineups, but if you can, he’s the top option at the position.
Paul DeJong
DeJong’s struggled throughout the season, and his price tag represents that. He’s hitting for a .207 average with a .414 slugging percentage and a .737 OPS over his last 10 games, though, and DeJong boasts known upside. He could also be heating up, recording a home run in 2 of his last 3 games. Ultimately, DeJong could become popular because of his ridiculous price tag. He’s expected to hit roughly seventh in the St. Louis Cardinals lineup, but he makes an elite salary relief option on this slate, especially with home many great spend-ups there are.
OF
Colorado Rockies
It’s impossible to ignore the Colorado Rockies outfielders on this slate. They feature varying price tags, allowing you to use any of the trio depending on how much salary you have. Yonathan Daza is the cheapest of the trio, but he’s hitting for a .333 average with 4 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 7 RBIs over his last 10 games. Raimel Tapia is averaging 9.9 DK points per game in Colorado, boasting elite stolen base potential as the Rockies’ leadoff hitter. Finally, Charlie Blackmon’s been ice cold in recent games, but he’ll make a great option in an elite matchup against Chase De Jong.
Eddie Rosario
Rosario’s struggled quite a bit this season, but he’s been heating up in recent games. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting for a .282 average with 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 7 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases. Rosario also boasts .010 wOBA and .046 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching this season. He’s hitting fourth in the Cleveland Indians lineup, and he continues to be a bit underpriced. Rosario can be considered in all leagues on this slate.
Tommy Pham
Pham’s another San Diego Padre that caught fire over his last 10 games. He’s hitting for a .316 average with a .684 slugging percentage and a 1.080 OPS over that span. Pham’s been better against left-handed pitching, although I’m not concerned with his matchup against Tony Santillan tonight. He’ll also benefit from playing in one of the more hitter-friendly stadiums in the MLB. Pham will continue to hit leadoff for San Diego, and he’s an elite option on this slate.
Dylan Carlson
Carlson’s leading off for the St. Louis Cardinals, posting a .278 average with 4 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 4 RBIs over his last 10 games. He also owns a .333 average with a .444 slugging percentage and a .842 OPS against left-handed pitching this season. Carlson gets a plus matchup against Caleb Smith and a weak Arizona bullpen. He’s surprisingly cheap for his recent success, making a St. Louis stack significantly more palatable tonight.
Stacks
“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen
Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch
DraftKings Team Stacks
DK MLB Stacks
FanDuel Team Stacks
FD MLB Stacks
“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)
Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.
When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.
We have a massive 15 game slate tonight. There are several elite stacking options without all of them being able to make the list below. Here are my favorite stacking options, though.
DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas
COL – Tapia/Daza/Blackmon/Story/McMahon
HOU – Altuve/Gurriel/Alvarez/Correa/Tucker
STL – Carlson/Goldschmidt/Arenado/O’Neill/DeJong
BOS – Verdugo/Martinez/Bogaerts/Devers/Renfroe
SD – Pham/Tatis/Cronenworth/Machado/Hosmer
DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas
SD – Pham/Tatis/Cronenworth
COL – Daza/Story/McMahon
HOU – Altuve/Alvarez/Correa
BOS – Martinez/Bogaerts/Devers
STL – Goldschmidt/Arenado/O’Neill
Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)
