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Pitching
MLB DK Pitcher Table
Jacob deGrom
deGrom is the priority spend-up in the MLB. Through 12 starts, he boasts a 1.59 xFIP with a ridiculous 46.8% strikeout rate. deGrom’s averaging 33.2 DK points per game, while consistently being pulled early in starts. He gets a matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies, who strike out at one of the higher rates on the slate. deGrom’s strikeout rate also increases to 51.2% against right-handed batters, and Philly is expected to utilize 6 righties throughout their lineup today. deGrom’s a -234 favorite in a game set at only 6.5 runs, and he’s the best pitching option on the slate.
Lance Lynn
Lynn continues to throw at a high level for the Chicago White Sox. He’s recorded a 3.82 xFIP with a 28.1% strikeout rate through 13 starts. Lynn’s been better at home thus far, where he’s averaging 26.4 fantasy points per game this season. Most importantly, he gets an elite matchup against the Seattle Mariners, who feature one of the worst offenses in the MLB this season. Lynn’s a -199 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, and he’s an elite option for a sub-$10k price tag tonight.
Adrian Houser
If you need to save at your second SP slot because of deGrom, Houser is an outstanding option. He’s quietly performed well, posting a 3.87 xFIP with an 18.7% strikeout rate through 14 games (13 starts). Houser gets a great matchup against the Colorado Rockies, who have struggled to find any success on the road this season. He’s also a -187 favorite in a game set at 8 runs. Houser isn’t necessarily a dominant arm, but he’s far too cheap and is an outstanding SP2 option on this slate.
Other GPP Targets: Alex Cobb, Kyle Gibson, Adam Wainwright, Patrick Corbin
Top DraftKings Batters
MLB Top Batters
Top FanDuel Batters
FD MLB Top Batters
Batters
C
Ryan Jeffers
When playing a pitcher over $11k (and potentially a second spend-up option at the position), you’re going to need to save salary somewhere. Catcher is the top position for that. Jefferson is a high upside option, posting a .200 average with 4 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 7 RBIs over his last 10 games. Jeffers is also hitting fifth in the Minnesota Twins lineup, getting a great matchup against Sam Hentges.
Riley Adams
Adams has looked awful through 25 games, recording only 2 hits thus far. With that being said, he’s near the minimum price, and he’s expected to draw the start with Keegan Akins taking the mound for the Baltimore Orioles. The Toronto Blue Jays feature the highest implied team total by more than a full run today, and Adams is a cheap way to get a piece of their offense.
1B
Vlad Guerrero Jr.
Guerrero’s cooled down a bit in recent games, but he still boasts a .300 average with 4 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 6 RBIs over his last 10 games. Guerrero’s quietly been better against right-handed pitching, although he should be able to take advantage of Keegan Akin in a hitter-friendly stadium. He also gets a plus matchup against the Baltimore bullpen once Akin is removed from the game. It won’t be easy to fit Guerrero into a lineup with deGrom because of his price tag, but he’s an elite option today.
Miguel Sano
Sano’s seen mixed results throughout the season, and his last 10 games have been no different. He’s hitting for a .250 average with a .472 slugging percentage and a .722 OPS over that span. With that being said, he’s been significantly better at home, where he owns a .242/.547/.874 line on the season. Sano’s better against right-handed pitching, but he’ll benefit from a plus matchup against Sam Hentges. Sano’s hitting sixth in the Minnesota lineup, and he’s a bit too cheap for his upside on this slate.
2B
Marcus Semien
The top offenses are extremely clear on this slate with Toronto standing above Minnesota. Semien’s only hitting for a .190 average over his last 10 games, but he owns 6 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 8 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over that span. Even with consistency struggles, he’s averaging 10 DK points per game over that span. Similar to Guerrero, Semien’s been slightly more successful against right-handed pitching this season, but he makes an elite option in this matchup.
Jeff McNeil
Jorge Polanco is an elite option leading off, but I don’t solely want to post Toronto/Minnesota players. Instead, McNeil is far too cheap for his expected leadoff role for the New York Mets. He’s struggled since returning from injury, but he posted a .316 average with a .496 slugging percentage and a .887 OPS against right-handed pitching in 2020. McNeil gets a matchup against Zach Eflin, who’s struggled on the road and against left-handed batters. McNeil’s a cheap option that will allow you to prioritize other positions.
3B
Josh Donaldson
Third base is a relatively weak position on this slate. Donaldson’s seen plenty of ups and downs this season, recording a .269 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .855 OPS over his last 10 games. He enters this game with .062 wOBA and .022 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. Donaldson’s hitting second in the Minnesota lineup, which projects as the second-best on the slate. He’ll benefit from a great matchup against Hentges, as well.
Austin Riley
Riley’s been ice cold recently, causing his price tag to drop over $1k over his last 10 games. He owns only a .147 average with 2 extra-base hits and 2 RBIs over his last 10 games. Riley’s also been more consistent against right-handed pitching this season, posting a .036 wOBA. Riley gets a plus matchup against Luis Castillo and the Reds’ bullpen in one of the more hitter-friendly stadiums in the MLB today. He certainly comes with risk, but his price tag has dipped far too low.
SS
Bo Bichette
Bichette’s looked outstanding this season, and he owns a .250 average with 2 extra-base hits (1 home run), 10 RBIs, and 3 stolen bases over his last 10 games. He gets an elite matchup against Keegan Akin, and Bichette enters this game with .098 wOBA and .060 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. He isn’t going to come cheap, but he’s an outstanding option if you choose to spend up for bats instead of deGrom on this slate.
Wander Franco
Franco burst onto the scene with 27 DK points at $2k. It didn’t take long before the best prospect in baseball was priced up, though, as he’s now in the mid-$4k range. Although I like Alex Cobb on this slate, Franco continues to be a top option as the best prospect in baseball. He’s a player that should be priced up with Trea Turner and Bo Bichette soon enough, and we’re getting him at a bit of a discount still early in his career.
OF
Toronto Blue Jays
This is the obvious next progression based on the way this article is going. Toronto is finally healthy in the outfield and they have four options that can be used (five including Cavan Biggio). Teoscar Hernandez, George Springer, Randal Grichuk, and Lourdes Gurriel have all found success against left-handed pitching. This is the order of my preference (with Biggio coming in after Gurriel), as well.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins outfield is interesting today. Nelson Cruz is far and away the best option, posting a .359 average with 4 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 8 RBIs over his last 10 games. He also owns a ridiculous .475 wOBA and a .293 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Taylor Larnach and Giberto Celestino are two cheap options that can be used, as well. I’m not worried about the lefty/lefty matchup for Larnach because I don’t expect Hentges to throw deep into this game.
Jake Lamb
Lamb’s been struggling in recent games, recording a .188 average with 2 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 5 RBIs over his last 10 games. Lamb gets a plus matchup against Logan Gilbert, and he enters this game with .073 wOBA and .053 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. Lamb’s expected to hit fourth in the Chicago White Sox lineup, and he can be used along with Brian Goodwin today.
Tyler O’Neill
O’Neill’s cooled off in recent games. He’s hitting for a .172 average with a .241 slugging percentage and a .566 OPS over his last 10 games. O’Neill’s flashed tremendous upside throughout the season, though, posting 15 home runs and 5 stolen bases through 56 games. He’s also been better against right-handed pitching, bringing .099 wOBA and .087 ISO differentials into this game. He gets an interesting matchup against JT Brubaker, and he’s a high upside option today.
Stacks
“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen
Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch
DraftKings Team Stacks
DK MLB Stacks
FanDuel Team Stacks
FD MLB Stacks
“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)
Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.
When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.
There is a massive 10 game slate on DraftKings with two offenses standing above the rest. They’re the best stacks on this slate, although there are several other outstanding stacking options, specifically in tournaments.
DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas
TOR – Semien/Bichette/Guerrero/Hernandez/Springer
MIN – Polanco/Donaldson/Cruz/Jeffers/Sano
TEX – Kiner-Falefa/White/Garcia/Gallo/Lowe
MIL – Wong/Urias/Yelich/Garcia/Adames
CHW – Anderson/Moncada/Abreu/Lamb/Grandal
DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas
TOR – Semien/Bichette/Guerrero
MIN – Polanco/Donaldson/Cruz
TEX – Garcia/Gallo/Lowe
ATL – Acuna/Freeman/Albies
CHW – Anderson/Moncada/Abreu
Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)
