This content will be dedicated to providing you with an easy-to-follow breakdown of the elite cash plays, GPP plays, and leverage stacks.

 

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Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Robbie Ray

For being such a big slate, we aren’t overwhelmed with top-tier aces and that leaves the likes of Robbie Ray at the top of the list. The Orioles have actually be quiet good vs left-handed pitching recently, but I can’t overlook what Ray has been doing this season. Historically a wild pitcher, he has trimmed his walk rate down to a respectable 6.3% after 17.9% and 11.2% marks over the last two seasons. His newfound control hasn’t resulted in a drop in strikeouts either, as his 32% strikeout rate in 2021 is his highest since 2017. It appears that the Blue Jays have unlocked the Robbie Ray DFS players always knew was buried within. This isn’t as easy of a match-up as you would think, but Ray is priced below $10,000 and can be used in all formats on Friday night.

Jose Berrios

Berrios is someone that I don’t typically roster in DFS, but he has been pitching very well for the Twins this season. His xFIP sits a 3.66 which is much lower than his 4.28 number in 2020. He’s also eclipsing 26% strikeouts for the first time in his career. His match-up with the Texas Rangers is one of the top on the slate — they currently rank sixth worst in baseball with a combined 26% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. This just isn’t a good lineup, with their projected lineup featuring a sub-.315 wOBA for this season as well. He could potentially get a further bump if the roof is closed in Arlington tonight, but I have yet to see that news. Overall, I like the mid-tier pitching tonight and I think Berrios will end up as one of the more popular selections.

Alex Cobb

Alex Cobb has been inconsistent this season, and on the surface this doesn’t appear like someone you would be rostering with confidence on a 15 game slate. While the near 5.00 ERA looks bad, the underlying metrics tell a completely different story — 2.88 xFIP, 28% strikeouts and 12% swinging strikes doesn’t scare you, right? Cobb has been victimized by a .360 BABIP, which tells me has been quite unlucky. He also draws the lowly Detroit Tigers offense, that ranks first in strikeout rate vs right-handed pitching. This seems like a get-right spot for Cobb, and he is my favorite option on tonight’s slate.

 

Other GPP Targets: Trevor Bauer, Yusei Kikuchi

MLB Top Batters

Batters

C

As usual on a 15 game slate, we are packed with spend-ups and punts at the Catcher position. I normally note that this is the last position I fill in, and that will be the case again tonight. As I pointed out at SP, even though we have a wealth of games we aren’t overloaded with ace-tier pitching, This will give us more money to allocate for bats than usual, and I have Salvy Perez as my top-graded C. If you’re searching for value I have Sean Murphy and Yadi Molina above the field.

 

1B

Vlad Guerrero Jr

Zimmerman was scratched for the Orioles, and Vladdy + his teammates will now square off with Thomas Eshelman. While he is not left-handed, the sample we have on Eshelman in the majors has not been a pretty sight. I’ve pointed out on multiple occasions that Guerrero has been the Jays best-hitter vs RHP this season, and he is still my top graded option on this slate.

Other Options: Vladdy is someone that I’m prioritizing on this slate, but there are plenty of pivots at this position. Firstly, we have Freddie Freeman against Carlos Martinez who has been an absolute disaster in recent weeks. I also love Shohei Ohtani as a spend-up, and Bobby Dalbec is once again the top cheap play.

 

2B

Marcus Semien

Semien is another Blue Jay that I love to target in DFS, and I am not moving off him with the pitcher change from lefty to righty. While consensus is to roster Semien vs southpaws, he’s actually been way better in same-handed match-ups this season. His .385 wOBA in the split is second on the team behind only Vlad Jr, and it comes with 44% hard-contact and fly balls.

Luis Arraez

Arraez is more of a cash game than GPP play tonight, leading off at a sub-3K price tag on DK. His overall numbers are lackluster, but he is someone that rarely strikes out and has a sparkling match-up with Mike Foltynewicz. Folty owns a 5.63 xFIP this season with a .438 wOBA allowed to left-handed batters.

3B

Jose Ramirez

Ramirez has been one of the hotter hitters in baseball this week, and I love him tonight against Chad Kuhl. Kuhl once had potential as a prospect, but injuries have taken their toll on his career. He’s pitched to a near 7.00 xFIP this season and has been absolutely shelled by left-handed batters. Ramirez is at 42% fly balls and 46% hard hits over the last 14 days, and has been seeing the ball extremely well.

Kyle Seager

Seager is another guy that hits the ball hard and in the air, hence why I use him often in DFS. He strikes out quite a bit, but the risk comes with over 50% fly balls and hard hits for the 2021 season. Michael Wacha is someone with mediocre ground ball ability, and Seager is the type of hitter I like to use against him. Wacha throws his cutter a third of the time to LHH, a pitch that Seager owns a monster .550 ISO against. He is my HR call for tonight’s slate.

SS

Bo Bichette

This space was initially reserved for Trea Turner, but Toronto is my favorite stack tonight and Bichette is another guy I’m not scared to target in righty on righty match-ups. His 45% hard hit rate in the split is the tops in this lineup, and it comes with a 91 mph average exit velocity. The Blue Jays team total has jumped nearly a full run since the pitching announcement and I continue to find their players in my early builds.

Brandon Crawford

Crawford continues to mash baseball, and be underpriced in DFS. Vince Velasquez has been one of my favorite pitchers to attack in DFS this season, and I think we see Crawford and his teammates come in low-owned vs him tonight. Crawford has been the best hitter on this team vs RHP this season — boasting a .398 wOBA. He also is a great fastball hitter, which is good news as VV throws his fastball almost 50% of the time to both sides of the plate.

OF

Christian Yelich + Brewers

I’ve refrained from mentioning Coors Field in today’s breakdown, but it’s clear that the Brewers are one of the top stacks tonight against Antonio Senzatela. As always with Coors Field, the discussion becomes whether not you want to eat the chalk rather than if they are in one of the best spots. Senzatela is someone that throws mainly fastball/slider, and those are pitches that Yelich in particular crushes. Overall, they make sense to play in cash games but I have other spots higher than the Brewers or Rockies in GPP.

Tyler O’Neill

O’Neill has been a staple of my lineups this season, and I’m focused on him in the mid-tier again tonight. Fried is not someone I typically target in DFS due to his groundball ability, but he has allowed a .342 wOBA to righties this season. O’Neill has been locked in at the plate, with over 42% hard hits and fly balls over the last 14 days. He provides power upside for a cheap price tag.

Greg Polanco

Polanco has been a go-to punt play for me at times this season, and I like him for nearly min-price on DK against JC Mejia. The surface numbers look as average as ever for Polanco, but they come with a solid batted ball profile. This season, he sports the highest fly ball rate on the Pirates at 47% with 39% hard contact. Mejia is surrendering over a .200 ISO to left-handed batters – and Polanco can provide cheap power on Friday night.

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams

“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)

“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DK MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

Semien-Bichette-Vlad Jr-Grichuk-Biggio

Acuna-Albies-Freeman-Almonte-Swanson

Wade-Yastrezemski-Crawford-Belt-Posey

Yelich-Vogelbach-Garcia-Urias-Narvaez

Verdugo-Martinez-Bogaerts-Devers-Renfroe

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

Semien-Vlad-Bichette

Ramirez-Rosario-Bradley

Acuna-Albies-Freeman

Crawford-Belt-Posey

Ohtani-Walsh-Upton

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)