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Pitching
MLB DK Pitcher Table
Corbin Burnes
Burnes continues to throw at an elite level, posting a ridiculous 1.71 xFIP with a 42.2% strikeout rate through 10 starts. He gets a great matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates, although they don’t strike out at an overly high rate. We saw that last night with Brandon Woodruff recording only 5 strikeouts in 7 innings. With that being said, Burnes owns some of the best strikeout stuff in the MLB and is far and away the safest option on this slate.
Joe Musgrove
The New York Mets offense is getting healthier, and they’re playing at a higher level over their last few games. With that being said, Musgrove continues to boast great metrics. Through 12 games (11 starts), he owns a 2.55 xFIP with a 34.2% strikeout rate. He hasn’t been an overly consistent option this season and some may prefer to use Dylan Cease or Rich Hill as their SP2 in cash games. The Mets aren’t an offense that I’m willing to shy away from at this point, though, and Musgrove boasts tremendous upside.
Max Fried
Fried’s inconsistencies at times have kept him underpriced for the majority of the season. That’s the case again tonight. He owns a reasonable 4.04 xFIP to go along with a 22.4% strikeout rate. Fried’s scored 16.5+ fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 starts, as well. He gets a plus matchup against the Miami Marlins, who have struggled against left-handed pitching this season. Fried’s performed well enough to be considered in all leagues for his price tag.
Other GPP Targets: Dylan Cease, Rich Hill, Triston McKenzie, Jameson Taillon
MLB Top Batters
Batters
C
Omar Narvaez
Narvaez continues to play at a high level, although his price tag doesn’t represent that. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting for a .345 average with a .724 slugging percentage and a 1.196 OPS. He’s flashed tremendous consistency and upside over that span. Narvaez gets a great matchup against Chad Kuhl, and he enters this game with .136 wOBA and .167 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He’ll also be hitting fifth in the Milwaukee offense.
Max Stassi
Stassi’s caught fire in recent games, and he’s still one of the more mispriced options on the slate. He’s hitting for a .367 average with 6 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 8 RBIs over his last 10 games. Stassi quietly boasts a .448 wOBA and a .467 ISO in limited opportunities against left-handed pitching this season. He gets a great matchup against Caleb Smith tonight.
1B
Dan Vogelbach
Vogelbach’s been heating up, posting 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs) over his last 3 games. He’s averaging 16.7 DK points per game in those contests. His price tag is finally on the rise, although it’s still far too low. Vogelbach gets a great matchup against Chad Kuhl, who’s struggled with powerful left-handed bats this season. There are several solid spend-up options at this position, but there are also plenty of salary relief plays at first base tonight.
Bobby Dalbec
Dalbec’s always an interesting option. He’s hitting in what projects as one of the best offenses on the slate and comes with a near minimum price tag. Dalbec gets a great matchup against Steven Matz, and he owns a .284 average with a .614 slugging percentage and a .921 OPS against left-handed pitching throughout his career. He also boasts .102 wOBA and .145 ISO differentials against lefties. Dalbec will continue to hit late in the Boston Red Sox lineup, but he’s a great salary relief option today.
2B
Shed Long
Long is essentially a free square tonight. He continues to be the minimum price on DraftKings, although I don’t expect that to be the case for much longer. He’s expected to hit sixth in the Seattle Mariners lineup, and his price tag is only so low because he hasn’t played much this season. Long’s flashed upside at times throughout his short MLB career, and he looked outstanding in Triple-A earlier. He’ll be in play as long as he’s this cheap, especially in a decent matchup.
Brandon Lowe
Lowe’s far from consistent, but he comes with tremendous upside. He gets a plus matchup against Jorge Lopez, who’s seen mixed results throughout the season. Lowe’s expected to lead off for one of the top projected offenses. He’s too expensive to comfortably be used in cash games on this slate, but he can be considered in tournaments tonight.
3B
Yoan Moncada
There are several great options at third base today, and Moncada is the top play. He boasts a blend of power and speed. He also gets a plus matchup against Jose Urena and a weak Detroit Tigers bullpen. The White Sox boast the highest implied team total on the slate, and Moncada is a massive part of their offense. He isn’t going to come cheap, but he’s an elite play in all leagues on this slate.
Anthony Rendon
Rendon’s struggled this season, but he’s been heating up a bit in recent games. Over the last 10 days, he’s hitting for a .268 average with 4 extra-base hits and 12 RBIs. Rendon gets a plus matchup against Caleb Smith and the Arizona bullpen. Last season, the Los Angeles third baseman posted .036 wOBA and .111 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. He’s still a bit cheap for his talent.
SS
Xander Bogaerts
Bogaerts was scratched from the lineup last night, and it’s unknown if he’ll play today. If he’s in the lineup, he makes a great option against Steven Matz. Over his last 10 games, Bogaerts owns a .342 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .886 OPS. He’s been more consistent against left-handed pitching throughout his career, and he’s an elite option in all leagues. If he isn’t in the lineup, Tim Anderson is another outstanding high-priced option.
Amed Rosario
Rosario’s caught fire in recent games. He’s hitting for a .400 average with 3 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 7 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases over his last 10 games. He’s posted double-digit DK points in 7 of those 10 games. Rosario gets a plus matchup against Yusei Kikuchi tonight, and Cleveland boasts one of the higher implied team totals on the slate. Rosario’s expected to hit second in the Indians lineup, and he’s a bit too cheap for his recent success.
OF
JD Martinez
Martinez has been struggling in recent games. He gets an elite matchup against Steven Matz in Boston today, though. On the season, Martinez is hitting for a .390 average with a .659 slugging percentage and a 1.068 OPS at home against left-handed pitching. He boasts a .442 wOBA and a .268 ISO in that situation, as well. Martinez can be used in all leagues for his price tag.
Justin Upton
Los Angeles is in a great spot against Caleb Smith tonight, and Upton will be a massive part of that. He’s caught fire recently, posting a .364 average with a .848 slugging percentage and a 1.360 OPS over his last 10 games. Upton owns 8 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 8 RBIs over that span. He’s a player that’s at his best against left-handed pitching, as well. He’s leading off for Los Angeles and continues to be underpriced.
Cincinnati Reds OF
The Reds get an interesting matchup against German Marquez, who I don’t necessarily want to attack. With that being said, I believe their outfield is in play today. Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos have been playing well enough this season to be used against virtually any pitcher. Tyler Naquin is far too cheap for hitting fourth in their offense, as well. Each of these three players can be considered on this slate.
Harold Ramirez
Ramirez has been playing well for Cleveland this season. He’s hitting for a .265 average with 2 extra-base hits (1 home run), 7 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over his last 10 games. He’s flashed plenty of upside for a salary relief option. Ramirez gets a plus matchup against Kikuchi, and he owns .090 wOBA and .141 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching.
Stacks
“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen
Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch
DK MLB Stacks
“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)
Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.
When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.
We have another big slate with plenty of stacking options. As is generally the case, there are reasonable stacks on this slate that I wasn’t able to list below. These are my five favorite stacking options, though.
DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas
BOS – Verdugo/Martinez/Bogaerts/Devers/Renfroe
MIL – Urias/Vogelbach/Yelich/Garcia/Narvaez
LAA – Upton/Walsh/Rendon/Stassi/Iglesias
CHW – Anderson/Lamb/Moncada/Abreu/Grandal
OAK – Canha/Kemp/Olson/Lowrie/Brown
DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas
BOS – Martinez/Bogaerts/Devers
LAA – Upton/Rendon/Stassi
MIL – Vogelbach/Yelich/Narvaez
CHW – Anderson/Moncada/Abreu
CIN – Winker/Castellanos/Naquin
Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)
