This content will be dedicated to providing you with an easy-to-follow breakdown of the elite cash plays, GPP plays, and leverage stacks.

 

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Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Jacob deGrom

There are several elite pitching options on this slate with deGrom leading the way. Through 5 starts, he boasts a 1.39 xFIP with an absurd 48% strikeout rate. His swinging-strike rate is up to 23% this season, as well. deGrom’s held right-handed batters to a .125 average with a 51.4% strikeout rate in 2021. He gets a matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals, who rely heavily on right-handed batters. deGrom’s a -210 favorite in a game set at 6.5 runs, giving the Cardinals an implied team total of only 2.3 runs. It’s important to note there are some weather concerns in this game.

Trevor Bauer

Bauer and Aaron Nola are relatively interchangeable for me tonight, although I believe once the Vegas line is released, Bauer will become the chalkier option of the duo. He owns a 3.21 xFIP with a 34.5% strikeout rate this season. He gets a matchup against the Chicago Cubs, who strike out at one of the highest rates in the MLB this season. The wind in Chicago is currently blowing in, although only slightly. Bauer’s more of a chalky option, while Nola makes an outstanding GPP pivot. Keep in mind, this is the second game of a double-header, meaning Bauer only needs to throw 7 innings for a complete game.

Nick Pivetta

Pivetta’s thrown well this season, but he’s due for regression. His 2.81 ERA sits significantly below his 4.99 xFIP. Pivetta does own a 24% strikeout rate, though. This is more of a matchup-based play, as the Detroit Tigers strike out at the highest rate in the MLB (30.9%). Pivetta is currently a -190 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving Detroit an implied team total of 3.5 runs. He’s too cheap for his strikeout potential in this matchup.

Other GPP Targets: Aaron Nola, JA Happ, Jorge Lopez

MLB Top Batters

Batters

C

Salvador Perez

If you’re spending up at catcher, Perez is the top option. He’s one of the top hitting catchers in the MLB, and he gets an outstanding matchup against Sam Hentges. Throughout his career, Perez owns a .316 wOBA and a .190 ISO against left-handed pitching. He’s a powerful option that boasts upside at consistently one of the weakest hitting positions in the MLB.

Max Stassi

If you’re looking to save on a catcher, Stassi makes sense. He’s struggled a bit in limited games this season, although he’s hitting .364 with a .636 slugging percentage and a 1.098 OPS at home. Stassi owns a career .280 wOBA and .175 ISO against left-handed pitching. He also gets a plus matchup Shane McClanahan, and the Los Angeles Angels make an interesting stack tonight. Stassi can be used in that stack or as a one-off.

1B

Carlos Santana

Initially, I had Freddie Freeman here, who I love tonight, but it’s impossible to ignore this recent streak for Santana. He’s hitting .324 with 2 home runs, 7 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over his last 10 games. Santana’s also looked elite at home this season. He gets the same outstanding matchup as Perez, and Kansas City owns an implied team total of 5.2 runs. He’s also been a more consistent option throughout his career against left-handed pitching.

Alex Kirilloff

Kirilloff is only hitting .231 over his last 10 games, but he owns 7 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 11 RBIs over that span. He gets a reasonable matchup against Kyle Gibson, but the matchup doesn’t matter much at this point. Kirilloff’s price tag is ridiculous for anyone averaging 21.5 fantasy points per game over his last 4 games. He’ll continue to make an elite option, especially with OF eligibility.

2B

Whit Merrifield

Kansas City players continue to make the article with Merrifield coming next. He has a combination of power and speed that is unique to only a few players in the MLB. In his career, Merrifield owns a .363 wOBA and a .188 ISO against left-handed pitching. He has home run and stolen base potential on any given slate, and it one of the key pieces to one of the best offenses on the slate.

Kike Hernandez

I prefer Hernandez against left-handed pitching, but it may not matter for his price tag. He gets a matchup against Michael Fulmer, who finally looks healthy and is throwing well. With that being said, Hernandez is expected to lead off for Boston, who has the highest implied team total of the slate. He’ll benefit from playing in Boston’s hitter-friendly stadium tonight, as well.

3B

Rafael Devers

Devers continues to playing well, hitting .306 with 7 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 5 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over his last 10 games. He owns a .363 wOBA and a .255 ISO against right-handed pitching throughout his career. As mentioned above, Boston owns the highest implied team total on the slate, and Devers could be the best option against Fulmer. If you’re spending up at third base, Devers makes the best option.

Alec Bohm

Throughout his short career, Bohm boasts 0.050 wOBA and 0.190 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. He gets an elite matchup against Eric Lauer, who’s giving up a .266 average with a .417 slugging percentage and a .324 wOBA to right-handed batters throughout his career. Bryce Harper isn’t expected to play tonight, allowing Bohm to hit higher in the lineup.

SS

Xander Bogaerts

Bogaerts has been elite in Boston this season. Through 15 home games, he’s hitting .367 with 8 extra-base hits, (3 home runs), 12 RBIs, and 1 stolen base. Similar to Hernandez, I prefer Bogaerts against left-handed pitching, but he’s still an outstanding option tonight. He’s posted 2 home runs over his last 3 games and could find similar success against a weak Detroit bullpen after Fulmer gets pulled.

Elvis Andrus

Generally, I like to spend up at shortstop, but Andrus is a decent spend-down option tonight. He’s struggled early this season but gets a great matchup against Anthony Key, who will simply look to eat innings for Toronto at this point. Throughout his career, Andrus has been more consistent and more powerful against left-handed pitching. The biggest issue with him tonight is that he’s expected to hit ninth in the Oakland order, but he’s cheap enough to take the chance on.

OF

JD Martinez

Martinez is hitting a ridiculous .393 with a .738 slugging percentage and a 1.201 OPS through 16 home games. He’s returned to form this season, flashing as much upside as anyone in the MLB thus far. As mentioned above, I’m looking to attack Detroit’s bullpen tonight, and Martinez is a key cog in the Boston offense. If you need a spend-down option here, Alex Verdugo is significantly cheaper but still gets you a piece of this offense.

Luis Arraez

Arraez left the game last night, but he hasn’t been ruled out yet, leaving hope he’ll play tonight. If he’s starting, he’ll likely lead off against Kyle Gibson. Arraez has been at his best against right-handed pitching, and he’ll hit at the top of the order for one of the highest upside offenses in the Majors. Arraez isn’t priced appropriately on this slate, but you’ll need to keep an eye on his injury status.

Andrew McCutchen

McCutchen hasn’t been a consistent player this season, but he does boast upside. He’s always been significantly better against left-handed pitching, and this season has been no different. McCutchen gets an elite matchup against Eric Lauer, who is one of the worst starters on the slate. He’ll benefit from playing on one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums in the MLB, as well.

Ramon Laureano

Laureano is a player with an elite mix of speed and power. He’s looked outstanding this season, although he’s struggled at times in Oakland. Still, he gets an elite matchup against Kay, who struggled in his only innings this season and isn’t likely to find much success in the Majors at the moment. Mark Canha is a slightly cheaper option if you can’t find the money for Laureano tonight.

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams

“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)

“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DK MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo homeruns, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

There’s weather concern in several games tonight, including Houston/New York and New York/St. Louis. Keep an eye out for more weather, as it can impact the top stacks. For now, there are plenty of options to choose from, as this is a massive slate with only a few elite arms throwing.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

BOS – Hernandez/Verdugo/Martinez/Bogaerts/Devers

KC – Merrifield/Santana/Perez/Soler/Dozier

ATL – Acuna/Freeman/Ozuna/Albies/Swanson

PHI – McCutchen/Bohm/Hoskins/Realmuto/Gregorius

LAA – Fletcher/Ohtani/Trout/Walsh/Upton

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

BOS – Martinez/Bogaerts/Devers

KC – Merrifield/Santana/Perez

OAK – Canha/Laureano/Murphy

ATL – Acuna/Freeman/Ozuna

MIN – Arraez/Cruz/Kirilloff

Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)