This content will be dedicated to providing you with an easy-to-follow breakdown of the elite cash plays, GPP plays, and leverage stacks.

 

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Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Jacob deGrom

deGrom’s expected to return after a short stint on the injured list. He’s the best pitcher in the MLB, posting a 1.77 xFIP to go along with an absurd 46.1% strikeout rate through 6 starts. deGrom gets an elite matchup against the Colorado Rockies in New York tonight. He’s a -275 favorite in a game set at only 6 runs, giving Colorado the lowest team total on the slate. Keep an eye out for any limitations on deGrom tonight, but he’s as close to a must-start as you can get in the MLB at the moment.

Corbin Burnes

I don’t like the matchup against the San Diego Padres in a hitter-friendly stadium for Burnes tonight. With that being said, how often will you get a legitimate Cy Young candidate for $9.1k? He’s more appealing on DraftKings than FanDuel, but he is mispriced on both sites. Through 7 starts, he boasts a 1.36 xFIP with a 44.7% strikeout rate. He’s a -125 favorite in a game set at only 7 runs, and he’s a second elite option on this slate.

Andrew Heaney

Heaney’s struggled quite a bit this season, but he’s one of the top “get right” guys in the MLB. In other words, he’s due for positive regression. His 5.31 ERA sits significantly higher than his 3.42 xFIP, while his 30.5% strikeout rate adds to his nightly ceiling. He’s scored double-digit fantasy points in only 4 of his 8 games, although he posted 30+ fantasy points in 3 of those 4 games. Heaney gets a great matchup against the Texas Rangers tonight, and he’s a -162 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs. He comes with quite a bit of risk, but his price tag is far too low for his talent.

Other GPP Targets: Max Scherzer, Lucas Giolito, Joe Musgrove, Kevin Gausman, Aaron Civale

MLB Top Batters

Batters

C

James McCann

McCann’s struggled early this season, but he’s a player that can always be considered against left-handed pitching. Throughout his career, he’s hitting for a .275 average with a .493 slugging percentage and a .833 OPS against lefties. He also boasts .081 wOBA and .107 ISO differentials in his career against left-handed pitching. McCann gets a plus matchup against Kyle Freeland tonight, and he’s a bit too cheap for a player that’s likely to hit in the middle of the New York Mets lineup.

Kurt Suzuki

Suzuki is in a similar situation as McCann, although his splits aren’t nearly as drastic. Suzuki’s a more consistent and more powerful option against left-handed pitching, but he also found success against righties throughout his career. Most importantly, he gets a plus matchup against Hyeon-Jong Yang tonight. Suzuki’s expected to hit near the end of the Los Angeles Angels lineup, but he makes a solid option at a relatively weak position.

1B

Brandon Belt

Belt’s seen plenty of mixed results throughout the season, flashing tremendous upside at times. He’s surprisingly been better at home this season, but he’ll certainly benefit from playing in a hitter-friendly stadium tonight. Belt’s found significantly more success against right-handed pitching throughout his career, recording a .269 average with a .471 slugging percentage and a .834 OPS. He gets a great matchup against Corbin Martin tonight, and Belt is a great option in what projects to be one of the better offenses tonight.

Luke Voit

Voit’s an interesting option on this slate. He’s struggled quite a bit early this season, keeping his price tag far too low for his upside. Throughout his career, he’s been a more consistent option against right-handed pitching, although he’s found more power against lefties. He gets a plus matchup against Steven Matz in one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums in the MLB, as well. There are safer options than Voit at first base, but he boasts elite upside for a surprisingly low price tag.

2B

DJ LeMahieu

LeMahieu’s another New York player that hasn’t performed as well as we’d expect early on this season. Historically, he’s been elite against left-handed pitching, recording a career .322 average with a .472 slugging percentage and a .851 OPS. LeMahieu gets a plus matchup against Steven Matz in New York. He’s another Yankees player whose price tag doesn’t represent their talent.

Luis Arraez

Arraez could be one of the keys to this slate because of his price tag. If he’s starting, he’s expected to lead off for the Minnesota Twins, who feature the highest implied team total on the slate. He gets an elite matchup against Dean Kremer tonight. Simply put, Arraez is far too cheap for what his role in the Minnesota offense should be, and gains value by being outfield eligible on top of second base.

3B

Anthony Rendon

There are several players that are far too cheap tonight because of recent struggles, and that’s something we’ll be looking to take advantage of. Rendon’s struggled in recent games, but he’s historically found tremendous success against left-handed pitching. Rendon gets a great matchup against Yang tonight, and he’s a great option that will easily allow you to pay up for pitching or other positions.

Josh Donaldson

Donaldson is another third baseman that’s far too cheap. He’s hitting under .100 over his last 10 games, but this could end up being a breakout situation for him (and all of the Twins). They boast the highest implied team total on the slate, and Minnesota should find plenty of success against Kremer. Donaldson will continue to hit second in the lineup, making him a key option.

SS

Jorge Polanco

Polanco’s missed the last few games with an ankle injury, but he was able to pinch run yesterday, suggesting he could make his way into the Minnesota lineup. He’s expected to hit in the heart of the Minnesota order. Kremer is one of the worst pitchers on the slate, adding to the value of the Twins players. Surprisingly, Polanco’s one of their more expensive options, but it won’t be difficult to fit him into your lineups on this slate.

Brandon Crawford

I went back and forth between Crawford and Gio Urshela, but I slightly prefer the former. He’s caught fire recently, hitting for a .308 average with a .667 slugging percentage and a 1.039 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he boasts 6 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 11 RBIs. Crawford gets a great matchup against Martin, and he’s an outstanding option tonight.

OF

Alex Kirilloff

I’ll preface this by saying I like all of Minnesota’s options in the outfield, but I felt that I really wanted to make it a point to outline Kirilloff. He’s played in 4 games since returning from injury, averaging 7.8 fantasy points per game. Kiriloff’s been better against left-handed pitching, although the sample size is far too small to trust. Still, he’s a powerful option that will benefit from a great matchup against Kremer.

Mike Yastrzemski

Yastrzemski’s surprisingly expensive for his recent struggles. With that being said, he’s a player that can produce while struggling. He’s only hitting for a .189 average over his last 10 games, but he owns 5 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 6 RBIs over that span. Yastrzemski gets a great matchup against Martin tonight, and he’s one of the better spend-up options in the outfield tonight.

Aaron Judge/Giancarlo Stanton

Judge and Stanton both get a great matchup against Matz in New York’s hitter-friendly stadium. If I had to pick one of the duo, I’d choose Judge. He’s hitting for a .429 average with a .771 slugging percentage and a 1.295 OPS over his last 10 games. With that being said, both of these players make elite options tonight with Stanton being the discounted option because of his recent injury.

Justin Upton

Upton’s been cold in recent games, but he’s expected to lead off for the Los Angeles Angels. Throughout his career, he owns .017 wOBA and .032 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. Upton gets a plus matchup against Yang tonight. He’s another cheap way to get a piece of the Los Angeles offense.

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams

“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)

“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DK MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

This is an extremely interesting slate. There are a plethora of pitchers that I like, but there are so many games that we have several elite stacking options, as well. I’ll outline some of my favorites below, although I believe there are more options you can consider in GPPs, as well.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

MIN – Arraez/Donaldson/Polanco/Cruz/Kirilloff

NYY – LeMahieu/Stanton/Judge/Urshela/Voit

SF – Yastrzemski/Posey/Crawford/Belt/Dickerson

LAA – Upton/Ohtani/Rendon/Lagares/Iglesias

CLE – Hernandez/Rosario/Ramirez/Luplow/Rosario

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

NYY – LeMahieu/Stanton/Judge

SF – Yastrzemski/Crawford/Belt

MIN – Polanco/Cruz/Kirilloff

LAA – Upton/Ohtani/Rendon

CLE – Rosario/Ramirez/Luplow

Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)