This content will be dedicated to providing you with an easy-to-follow breakdown of the elite cash plays, GPP plays, and leverage stacks.

 

Vegas Overview – Below is an excerpt from our sister site, Bet Karma. It has daily player props, live trends, (below), and much more! Access all odds, trends, and line movement for all sports here: BetKarma Live MLB Trends

Projections will be updated throughout the day. You can stay up to date on all of our latest projections by utilizing our FREE projections portal at DFS Karma.

NOTE: Tables are embedded in the breakdown and update LIVE. The various tables will update with starting lineups confirmation, when projections are edited in the projections portal(s), and every hour. If a table is showing an error message or is blank, please wait a moment and refresh the page and it should re-populate correctly. Thanks!

Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Tyler Glasnow

Glasnow has been an elite-level pitcher this season, posting a 2.71 xFIP with an absurd 39.5% strikeout rate through 8 starts. His numbers have tailed off in recent games, although the advanced metrics suggest he’s been a bit unlucky. Glasnow gets a tough matchup against a surging New York Mets offense, but he still boasts tremendous upside. He’s also a -151 favorite in a game set at only 6.5 runs, making him a priority spend-up on this slate.

Clayton Kershaw

Kershaw’s been surprisingly boom or bust this season. He’s posted 25+ fantasy points in 4 of his 8 games, although he’s posting less than 1 fantasy point in 2 of those contests. Still, he boasts a 3.23 xFIP with a 26.1% strikeout rate. He gets a great matchup against the Miami Marlins, who strike out at a high rate against lefties this season. He’s a -211 favorite in a game set at only 6.5 runs. Each of the $10k+ pitchers on DraftKings makes great options on this slate, though I prefer the Glasnow/Kershaw duo if you’re looking at a double spend-up tonight.

Joe Musgrove

Musgrove isn’t overly expensive, although he also isn’t cheap. He looked elite early in the season, although he’s struggled in recent games. Overall, Musgrove boasts a 2.32 xFIP with a 34.8% strikeout rate. His advanced metrics suggest he’s been a bit unlucky in recent games, meaning he’ll find continued success as the season progresses. Although the sample size is absurdly small, Musgrove owns a 47.6% strikeout rate at home against right-handed batters. He gets an elite matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals, who use several righties throughout their lineup. Musgrove’s flashed tremendous upside, especially for his price, making him an elite option on a slate filled with plenty of great arms.

Other GPP Targets: Max Scherzer, Drew Smyly, David Peterson, Jake Arieta

MLB Top Batters

Batters

C

Tucker Barnhart

Barnhart’s performed well throughout the season, flashing consistent upside for the Cincinnati Reds. He’s far too cheap for playing in Colorado tonight, though. He gets a tough matchup against German Marquez, who’s unsurprisingly struggled at home. The Reds and Rockies will continue to be popular tonight, especially players like Barnhart, who comes with far too cheap of a price tag.

Andrew Knapp

Knapp’s struggled early this season, and he’s a player that I prefer to use against right-handed pitching. With that being said, he’ll be playing in one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums in the MLB tonight. He’s near the minimum price, and we’re looking to spend up on two pitchers tonight. The Philadelphia Phillies also boast an implied team total of 4.5, and it isn’t out of the question that they get to Steven Matz early, giving Knapp multiple at-bats against a righty.

1B

Vlad Guerrero Jr. 

Guerrero’s hitting .405 with 5 extra-base hits (4 home runs), 15 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over 11 home games this season. He’s a player better against left-handed pitching, although I like the matchup against Vince Velasquez tonight. The latter’s allowed 6 home runs over his last 4 games and could struggle to keep the ball in play in one of the smaller stadiums in the MLB. Guerrero isn’t going to come cheap, but he’ll return to his “home stadium” tonight, where he’s found elite success.

Connor Joe

If you aren’t paying up, it makes sense to drop all the way down to Joe. He’s only played in a few games this season, but he’s coming off of a 20 fantasy point performance for the Colorado Rockies. He’s absurdly priced after hitting second in the lineup last night. Even if he’s hitting sixth (or so), he’s far too cheap for a matchup against Wade Miley in Colorado. It’s truly incredible that you could potentially play two elite arms with Coors bats on this slate tonight, and Joe is a major reason why that is possible.

2B

Jose Altuve

Altuve’s the gift that keeps on giving. He’s hitting .341 with a .591 slugging percentage and a .974 OPS over his last 10 games. He’s also posted double-digit fantasy points in 6 of his last 8 games. Altuve, and the rest of the Houston team, gets a great matchup against Wes Benjamin tonight. He’s hitting .368 against left-handed pitching this season, although he has yet to display much power against southpaws. That’s likely to change in the near future, and he’s an elite spend-up on this slate.

Jean Segura

Segura’s dealt with injuries this season, but he’s back and hitting second in the Phillies lineup. He gets a plus matchup against Steven Matz in Toronto’s small “home” stadium for the season. Throughout his career, Segura owns .009 wOBA and .029 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. He’s a bit underpriced for his situation, and he makes an outstanding tournament option on this slate.

3B

Alex Bregman

Bregman’s always in play against weak left-handed pitching. He’s hitting over .300 over his last 10 games, and he enters this game with .051 wOBA and 0.56 ISO differentials against lefties throughout his career. Bregman is a focal point of the Houston offense, making him a great expensive option if you’re looking to take a different route from most tonight.

Josh Fuentes

I went back and forth on Fuentes and the underpriced Mike Moustakas for this recommendation. Ultimately, it was impossible to avoid a near-minimum price right-handed bat against Wade Miley. The Rockies lineup will dictate how good of a play he becomes, but he’s coming off of a pair of 20+ fantasy point performances. For what it’s worth, Moustakas is also ridiculously priced, and he can be used in all leagues, as well.

SS

Trevor Story

Story’s a priority spend-up on this slate. It won’t be overly difficult to fit him in your lineups, and he’s playing in Coors against a left-handed pitcher. Throughout his career, he’s hitting for a .324 average with a .715 slugging percentage and a 1.113 OPS in that situation. He also owns a .453 wOBA and a .391 ISO at home against lefties in his career. Shortstop is generally a position to spend on. Get all the way up to Story.

Trea Turner

Turner is only slightly cheaper than Story, and he’s an outstanding tournament pivot. He boasts a tremendous combination of power and speed, giving him upside in nearly every situation. Furthermore, he’ll be playing in Arizona against Riley Smith tonight. There are several high-end shortstops on this slate, and regardless of who you choose, you’re likely going to want to spend up at this position.

OF

Colorado/Cincinnati

I don’t want to bore you too much here or waste many recommendations, but I’m fine with either side of this game tonight, especially the outfielders that are far too cheap. I also don’t care about the lefty/lefty matchups here, as I don’t expect Miley to throw too deep into this game.

Josh Harrison

Harrison’s been enjoying an outstanding season, although he’s cooled off recently. Still, he’s far too cheap for this matchup. The Nationals should find plenty of success against Smith, and Harrison is expected to hit second in the lineup. He also has position flexibility, as you can use him in the outfield or at second base. He could end up being a key factor in cash games depending on the lineups that are put out tonight.

Teoscar Hernandez

Hernandez is on an incredible tear for the Toronto Blue Jays, hitting for a .378 average with a .649 slugging percentage and a 1.101 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 4 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 13 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over that span. Hernandez gets to play in a hitter-friendly stadium against a pitcher that’s struggled with home runs in recent games. He’s one of the Blue Jays players that isn’t extremely expensive, and he’s an elite option in all leagues for his current price tag.

Jared Walsh

Walsh’s seen mixed results in recent games, as he was on a recent elite 3-game stretch followed by a pair of hitless games. He’ll travel to Boston’s hitter-friendly stadium tonight, and he gets a solid matchup against Nick Pivetta. Walsh is hitting for a .369 average with a .655 slugging percentage and a 1.109 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. He also owns a .466 wOBA and a .286 ISO against righties. I also considered Alex Verdugo for this final play, so there’s a bonus guy I like tonight.

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams

“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)

“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

DK MLB Stacks

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

There are several elite stacks on this slate. We have matchups in two of the most hitter-friendly stadiums in the MLB (Toronto, Colorado) along with a few other teams in elite matchups. There are a plethora of ways to go about your roster construction, especially in tournaments.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

COL – Tapia/Hampson/Story/Blackmon/Joe

TOR – Semien/Bichette/Guerrero/Hernandez/Grichuk

HOU – Altuve/Bregman/Alvarez/Gurriel/Correa

PHI – McCutchen/Segura/Harper/Hoskins/Bohm

CIN – Winker/Castellanos/Moustakas/Naquin/Barnhart

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

TOR – Bichette/Guerrero/Hernandez

COL – Story/Blackmon/Joe

PHI – Segura/Harper/Hoskins

HOU – Altuve/Bregman/Gurriel

WAS – Turner/Harrison/Soto

Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)