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Pitching
MLB DK Pitcher Table
Walker Buehler
Buehler has looked elite at home early this season. Through 3 games, he boasts a 2.66 xFIP with a 30.7% strikeout rate in Los Angeles. Overall, he’s averaging 22.7 fantasy points per game at home. Buehler gets a great matchup against the Seattle Mariners, who have struggled against right-handed pitching. He’s a -245 favorite against Seattle, giving them the lowest implied team total on the slate at only 2.5 runs. Buehler is a cash lock on this slate tonight.
Freddy Peralta
A second cash option came down between Peralta or Marcus Stroman. I prefer Peralta’s strikeout upside over Stroman, though. He’s averaging 22.3 fantasy points per game in Milwaukee this season. More importantly, he gets a matchup against a right-handed heavy St. Louis Cardinals lineup. On the season, Peralta boasts an absurd 51.5% strikeout rate against righties. He’s flashed elite upside early this season, and he makes an elite option on this slate.
Shohei Ohtani
Initially, I didn’t want to post Ohtani here. I hate the matchup against the Houston Astros, and Ohtani is due for some regression at the moment. With that being said, his price tag is ridiculous for how well he’s throwing. He owns 35.7% strikeout and 13.3% swinging-strike rates thus far. Ohtani’s the underdog tonight, but he boasts one of the best arms in the MLB. He’s a player that can be used until he’s priced with the top arms on any given slate.
Other GPP Targets: Jordan Montgomery, Kwang Hyun Kim, Brady Singer
MLB Top Batters
Batters
C
Austin Nola
Nola’s struggled early this season, but does it matter in Coors? Not particularly. If he’s in the starting lineup, he’s far too cheap for his upside in this matchup. The San Diego Padres get a matchup against Antonio Senzatela, who owns surprisingly solid advanced metrics this season. With that being said, he struggles to miss bats, and San Diego is the top offense tonight.
Danny Jansen
If you’re saving money at catch tonight, Jansen is likely the best option. He looked atrocious early this season but has hit 3 home runs in his last 4 games at this point. Jansen gets a plus matchup against Bryse Wilson, who’s given up 4 home runs in only 12 innings this season. Jansen has more upside than the majority of salary relief options at this position.
1B
Eric Hosmer
Unfortunately, you’re going to see several San Diego options in this article, as they’re far and away the best stack. Surprisingly, they aren’t overly expensive at this point either, meaning it won’t be difficult to stack them tonight. Hosmer’s been better against left-handed pitching this season, although that hasn’t been the case throughout his career. He’ll benefit from an elite matchup, and makes a priority play for the Padres tonight.
Marwin Gonzalez
Gonzalez has seen mixed results this season, although his price tag continues to be shockingly low. He gets a tough matchup against Chris Bassitt, who has thrown well early this season. With that being said, Gonzalez is expected to lead off for Boston. The Red Sox also boast plenty of upside at home, and a cheap leadoff hitter for a high upside offense is always in play.
2B
Jake Cronenworth
Cronenworth caught fire in recent games. He’s hitting .353 with four extra-base hits (two home runs) and seven RBIs over his last 10 games. He’s been significantly better on the road this season and gets to play in the most hitter-friendly stadium in the MLB tonight. Cronenworth also enters this game with 0.024 wOBA and 0.12 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching this season. He could go a bit overlooked, as he isn’t expected to hit in the top-5 for San Diego, but he’s also an elite option on this slate.
Josh Harrison
I generally prefer Harrison against left-handed pitching, but it’s impossible to ignore his price tag tonight. He’s looked outstanding this season, flashing power and speed for the Washington Nationals. Harrison gets a matchup against Chase Anderson, who’s struggled this season and those struggles aren’t likely to go away any time soon. The second baseman boasts tremendous upside and could end up being the cheap chalk at the position tonight.
3B
Justin Turner
There are several elite spend-up options at third base. It’s hard to go wrong with any of them. Turner’s been elite at home, where he’s hitting .366 with a .732 slugging percentage and a 1.192 OPS through 12 games. He also gets a great matchup against Yusei Kikuchi, and Turner can always be considered against left-handed pitching.
Manny Machado
Machado’s been ice cold recently, but he’s still flashed upside at times. He’s playing in Coors against a weak pitcher, though, and is hitting in the heart of the San Diego order. Machado’s combination of power and speed gives him elite upside on any given night, and he’s another priority in San Diego’s lineup tonight.
SS
Fernando Tatis Jr.
If you can only play one Padre tonight, Tatis is likely the top option. The only issue is his price tag. He’s only hitting .240 on the season, but he’s averaging over 10 fantasy points per game. He owns 12 extra-base hits (9 home runs), 14 RBIs, and 7 stolen bases through 26 games. He’s the premier spend-up on this slate.
Didi Gregorius
Since you’re likely to pay for Tatis if you’re spending up, I’ll offer a salary relief alternative as the second shortstop option. Gregorius isn’t overly consistent, but he does boast plenty of upside on any given night. It’s early in the season, but he’s found more success against right-handed pitching. Gregorius gets a plus matchup against Erick Fedde, and he makes an outstanding tournament option on this slate.
OF
Trent Grisham/Wil Myers
Grisham and Myers are both elite options in Coors tonight. Similar to the majority of the San Diego team, both players possess power and aren’t afraid to run on the base path. If I’m choosing between the two, I prefer Grisham with a right-handed pitcher on the mound for Colorado. For what it’s worth, any San Diego outfielder can be considered tonight, although Grisham and Myers make the best options at their current spots in the batting order.
Max Kepler
Kepler’s numbers don’t stick out early this season, but he’s found plenty of success in terms of fantasy. He still boasts an absurdly low price tag, especially for his success outside of Minnesota. He gets a matchup against Dylan Cease, who has seemingly put it all together this season, flashing tremendous talent for the Chicago White Sox. Kepler is expected to lead off for an explosive Minnesota Twins offense, and he’s simply too cheap on this slate.
Garrett Cooper
Cooper’s struggled quite a bit this season, but he’s an outstanding option against left-handed pitching. Through 31 games, he boasts 0.107 wOBA and 0.13 ISO differentials against lefties. Cooper gets a plus matchup against Madison Bumgarner tonight. He’ll also be playing in a significantly more hitter-friendly stadium than he does in Miami. Essentially, you’re taking a bet on a splits hitter for Cooper to find early success in this matchup. For his price tag, he’s a solid option with upside.
Tyrone Taylor
If you’re spending up at pitcher tonight and trying to fit in a few San Diego players, you’re going to have to find cheap options. Taylor fits the bill. Through 22 games, he’s hitting .269 with a .481 slugging percentage and a .837 OPS. Although the at-bats are limited, Taylor’s hitting for a .444 average with a .778 slugging percentage and a 1.251 OPS against left-handed pitching this season. He’s the minimum price on DraftKings, making him a solid option against Kwang Hyun Kim.
Stacks
“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen
Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch
DK MLB Stacks
“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)
Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo homeruns, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.
When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.
Generally, with this large of a slate, ownership is spread out. With that being said, San Diego is the clear chalk stack tonight, although they are expensive. There are several outstanding GPP stacks to pivot off of the Padres, though.
DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas
SD – Tatis/Grisham/Machado/Hosmer/Cronenworth
PHI – McCutchen/Segura/Harper/Realmuto/Gregorius
WAS – Turner/Harrison/Soto/Bell/Schwarber
BOS – Gonzalez/Verdugo/Martinez/Bogaerts/Devers
ATL – Acuna/Freeman/Ozuna/Albies/Riley
DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas
SD – Tatis/Grisham/Machado
WAS – Turner/Harrison/Soto
KC – Merrifield/Perez/Santana
PHI – Segura/Harper/Gregorius
ATL – Acuna/Ozuna/Albies
Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)
