Baseball

MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (10/1/21)

by
Justin
October 1, 2021

Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!

Vegas Overview – Below is an excerpt from our sister site, Bet Karma. It has daily player props, live trends (below), and much more! Access all odds, trends, and line movement for all sports here: BetKarma Live MLB Trends

Projections will be updated throughout the day. You can stay up to date on all of our latest projections by utilizing our FREE projections portal at DFS Karma.

NOTE: Tables are embedded in the breakdown and update LIVE. The various tables will update with starting lineups confirmation, when projections are edited in the projections portal(s), and every hour. If a table is showing an error message or is blank, please wait a moment and refresh the page and it should re-populate correctly. Thanks!

Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Player	Hand	Team	Opponent	Opp. K%	Park	DK Salary	Proj. DK Pts.	FD Salary	Proj. FD Pts.	Proj. Ks	K%	BB%	HR/9	BABIP	SwStr.%	FB %	HC%	SIERA	WHIP	K-BB%	x	Player ID
#N/A			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
Player	Hand	Team	Opponent	Opp. K%	Park	DK Salary	Proj. DK Pts.	FD Salary	Proj. FD Pts.	Proj. Ks	K%	BB%	HR/9	BABIP	SwStr.%	FB %	HC%	SIERA	WHIP	K-BB%	x	Player ID

Clayton Kershaw

Kershaw’s interesting tonight because of his somewhat unknown workload. He threw 75 pitches in each of his last 2 games, although he was hit around in his second game, suggesting he could’ve thrown deeper. Overall, he’s posted a 3.38 ERA with a 2.86 xFIP and a 29.9% strikeout rate through 120 innings this season. Kershaw gets a solid matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers, who’ve recorded a .303 team wOBA with a 20.8% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. He’s a pitcher that boasts 30 DK point upside even with limited pitches, and he’s a -209 favorite in a game set at 8 runs. I expected Kershaw to throw deeper into this game, making him an elite option, although I understand the concern surrounding him.

Lance Lynn

Lynn continues to be a bit underpriced, especially in the matchups he’s been getting. Through 152 innings, he’s recorded a 2.72 ERA with a 3.78 xFIP and a 27.6% strikeout rate. He’s struggled a bit recently, although he posted 28.1 DK points only 3 starts ago. Lynn gets a great matchup against the Detroit Tigers, who own a .305 team wOBA with a 20.9% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. He’s also averaging 26 DK points per game against them this season. Lynn’s a -254 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, and he can be used in all leagues on this slate.

Other GPP Targets: Sandy Alcantara, Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, Steven Matz, Huascar Ynoa, Marco Gonzalez, Jon Gray

Top DraftKings Batters

MLB Top Batters

Top FanDuel Batters

FD MLB Top Batters

Batters

C

Yasmani Grandal

Grandal continues to play well, recording a .290 average with a .548 slugging percentage and a 1.026 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 4 RBIs in those contests. Grandal gets a great matchup against Wily Peralta, and he’s expected to hit fourth in the Chicago White Sox lineup. He’s an elite option in all leagues, although he’s one of the most expensive catchers on the slate. If you need to save salary here, Christian Vazquez and Roberto Perez are two of the top options.

1B

Bobby Dalbec

We have Dalbec once again in a matchup against a weak left-handed pitcher. He’s only hitting for a .207 average with a .483 slugging percentage and a .764 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 5 RBIs. Dalbec’s been an outstanding option against left-handed pitching this season, especially for his price tag, and he gets a great matchup against Josh Rogers tonight. He’s expected to hit fifth in the Boston Red Sox lineup, and Dalbec can be used as a salary relief option in all leagues tonight.

2B

Trea Turner

Turner’s the most expensive option at this position, but he continues to be an elite option in all leagues. Over his last 10 games, he owns a .419 average with a .698 slugging percentage and a 1.154 OPS. He possesses 6 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 6 RBIs, and 3 stolen bases. Turner’s hitting in the heart of the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, and he gets a solid matchup against Eric Lauer tonight. He’s a player that utilizes an elite combination of speed and power for upside, and he can be used in all leagues tonight. Luis Arraez is the top salary relief option at this position.

3B

Rafael Devers

It’s tough to shy away from Devers at this position, as I continue to utilize him in this slot. He’s been playing well, posting a .350 average with a .475 slugging percentage and a .856 OPS over his last 10 games. In those contests, he recorded 3 extra-base hits (1 home run), 5 RBIs, and 1 stolen base. Devers continues to find more success against right-handed pitching, but I’m not overly concerned about the matchup against Josh Rogers tonight. He’s hitting third in the Boston Red Sox lineup, and he can be used in all leagues on this slate.

Editor’s Note: Remember, you can sign up for all of our Core Plays here, or join our free Discord here.

SS

Tim Anderson

It’s impossible to go wrong at the top of this position, and it was difficult to decide between Anderson and Corey Seager. The former’s been playing well, recording a .310 average with a .571 slugging percentage and a .912 OPS over his last 10 games. He posted 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 6 RBIs, and 1 stolen base in those contests. Anderson gets a great matchup against Wily Peralta, and he’s leading off for the Chicago White Sox tonight. Feel free to use any shortstop priced over $5k on this slate.

OF

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox are in another elite matchup against a bad left-handed pitcher, and they’re the top outfield once again. Kike Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe, and JD Martinez continue to make the top options in all leagues. I would expect Martinez to sit without a DH in the lineup tonight, although if he’s in, he’s an elite option. Kyle Schwarber should be the last starter, and he can be considered on this slate, as well.

Raimel Tapia

Tapia continues to be a cheap option for the Colorado Rockies. Over his last 10 games, he owns a .250 average with a .344 slugging percentage and a .658 OPS. He’s recorded 3 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 3 RBIs over that span. Tapia gets a great matchup against Humberto Castellanos in a hitter-friendly stadium. He’s leading off for Colorado, making him a solid salary relief option on this slate.

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams

“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)

“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

Team	Team Batting Score	Opp.	Opp. Pitcher	Opp. SP Score	Opp. BP Score	PLAYER ID
LAD
LAD
LAD
LAD
LAD
LAD
LAD
LAD
LAD
LAD
LAD
LAD
LAD
LAD








Team	Team Batting Score	Opp.	Opp. Pitcher	Opp. SP Score	Opp. BP Score	PLAYER ID

DraftKings Team Stacks

DK MLB Stacks

Team	T2 DK $	T2 Pts	T2 OWN%	T3 DK $	T3 Pts	T3 OWN%	T4 DK $	T4 Pts	T4 OWN%	T5 DK $	T5 Pts	T5 OWN%
Team	T2 DK $	T2 Pts	T2 OWN%	T3 DK $	T3 Pts	T3 OWN%	T4 DK $	T4 Pts	T4 OWN%	T5 DK $	T5 Pts	T5 OWN%

FanDuel Team Stacks

FD MLB Stacks

Team	T2 FD $	T2 Pts	T2 OWN%	T3 FD $	T3 Pts	T3 OWN%	T4 FD $	T4 Pts	T4 OWN%
Team	T2 FD $	T2 Pts	T2 OWN%	T3 FD $	T3 Pts	T3 OWN%	T4 FD $	T4 Pts	T4 OWN%

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

We’re back to a massive 14 game slate tonight, giving us plenty of stacking options to choose from. Below are my five favorites for the slate.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

CHW – Anderson/Robert/Abreu/Grandal/Jimenez

BOS – Hernandez/Renfroe/Devers/Bogaerts/Dalbec

TOR – Springer/Semien/Guerrero/Bichette/Hernandez

LAD – Betts/Seager/Turner/Muncy/Smith

MIN – Arraez/Buxton/Polanco/Donaldson/Kepler

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

CHW – Anderson/Abreu/Grandal

TOR – Semien/Guerrero/Bichette

BOS – Renfroe/Devers/Bogaerts

LAD – Betts/Seager/Turner

MIN – Buxton/Polanco/Donaldson

Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)

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