Welcome to my first ever edition of Bales’ GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for Opening Day. This article will be a small sample of what to expect for the season, as there are only two games tonight. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts and Game Theory articles with access to our Discord, click here.
Brett Gardner
Gardner is expected to hit late in the New York Yankees lineup. He’s one of only two left-handed batters that are expected to start for New York tonight. Gardner was at his best against right-handed pitching in 2019, hitting .265 in 408 plate appearances. He also posted a .546 slugging percentage with a .892 OPS, .368 wOBA, and a .281 ISO against right-handed pitching. Overall, 82.1% of his home runs and 80.3% of his extra-base hits came against righties last season.
Gardner gets a difficult matchup against Max Scherzer, who is one of the best pitchers in the MLB. With that being said, he has distinct splits. Scherzer was worse in all categories against left-handed batters in 2019. His xFIP raised to 3.74 with his HR/9, walk percentage, opponent batting average, WHIP, and BABIP increasing against lefties, while his strikeout rate dropped. Scherzer has been an elite pitcher for years, but he has been susceptible at times to left-handed batters. With many focusing on the power bats of New York, Gardner should go overlooked and makes an outstanding leverage option.
Eric Thames
Thames is expected to draw the start as a left-handed batter that specializes against right-handed pitching. He saw 397 plate appearances against righties in 2019, posting a .254 average with a .529 slugging percentage, .877 OPS, .362 wOBA, and .275 ISO. Thames saw the majority of his at-bats against right-handed pitching, recording 92% of his home runs and 94% of his extra-base hits in 2019 against righties. He’s been a better hitter against right-handed pitching throughout his career, as well.
Thames gets a difficult matchup against Gerrit Cole, who was slightly better against left-handed batters in 2019. Still, his numbers were similar regardless of the handedness of the batter. His HR/9 increased to 1.39 to left-handed batters, though, and Thames is more or less a boom or bust home run option. He isn’t a top option for Washington, and he’ll be hitting in the middle of the lineup, but he comes with tremendous upside with only two games on this slate.
