Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Dane Dunning
Dunning has found success through three MLB starts. He’s allowed only 6 runs while striking out 18 over 14 innings. His 3.86 ERA is backed by a 3.14 xFIP and a 3.75 SIERA. He boasts an elite 30.5% strikeout rate to go along with a 17.5% swinging-strike rate through 14 innings. Dunning also boasts a 50% ground ball rate in the Majors. He struggled in his only road game this season, which is a major concern tonight. He has similar splits against either handedness, though, suggesting that he has the potential to find success against either side of the plate moving forward.
Dunning gets a great matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight. They rank seventh on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat while also ranking in the bottom-three in team wOBA. Dunning is a -156 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving the Pirates an implied team total of roughly 4.0 runs tonight. Dunning certainly comes with risk, as all young pitchers are bound to struggle at some point in the MLB. He’s still extremely cheap, though, and has flashed 25+ fantasy point upside. I’m expecting him to garner some ownership tonight but he’s currently expected to be slightly lower owned than Tyler Anderson, making him a great option.
Jesus Aguilar
Aguilar has found plenty of success recently, hitting for a .270 average with a .378 slugging percentage and a .765 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns two extra-base hits (one home run) and seven RBIs over that span. Aguilar has found plenty of success against left-handed pitching throughout his career, recording a .266 average with a .452 slugging percentage and a .805 OPS. He also boasts a .343 wOBA and a .187 ISO against lefties.
Aguilar gets a great matchup against Tommy Milone tonight. He was a reverse splits pitcher in 2019 but has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .339 average with a .583 slugging percentage and a .391 wOBA this season. Aguilar is expected to hit fourth for the Miami Marlins tonight. He’s a powerful option that is averaging 9.5 fantasy points per game in September. He’ll benefit from the matchup and makes an elite option for a low price tag on this slate.
Wilmer Flores
Flores continues to play well, posting a .278 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .850 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts six extra-base hits (one home run), two RBIs, and one stolen base over that span. Flores has dominated left-handed pitching in 2020, recording a .295 average with a .682 slugging percentage and a 1.015 OPS through 44 at-bats. He owns a .411 wOBA and a .386 ISO against lefties this season, as well.
Flores gets a plus matchup against Nick Margevicius, who has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .259 average with a .455 slugging percentage and a .329 wOBA throughout his career. Flores is expected to hit fifth in the San Francisco Giants lineup tonight, adding to his upside. He has been at his best in San Francisco, where he owns a .295/.500/.841 line this season. His price tag dropped quite a bit for the lefty matchup tonight, and Flores benefits from having second base eligibility on DraftKings.
Shohei Ohtani
Ohtani has seen plenty of ups and downs this season, recording a .226 average with a .258 slugging percentage and a .626 OPS over his last 10 games. He posted one extra-base hit, four RBIs, and four stolen bases over that span. Ohtani was at his best against right-handed pitching last season, hitting for a .288 average with a .527 slugging percentage and a .868 OPS. He ended 2019 with a .358 wOBA and a .238 ISO against righties.
Ohtani gets a matchup against Kyle Cody, who has only thrown in four games in the MLB. Cody has yet to allow a hit to a left-handed batter but he is due for quite a bit of regression overall. I don’t expect him to find continued success throughout his rookie season. Ohtani is expected to hit fifth in the Los Angeles Angels lineup tonight. He comes with significantly more power than he has displayed in recent games, adding to his overall upside on any given night.
Michael Conforto
Conforto has been playing at an elite level recently, hitting for a .390 average with a .659 slugging percentage and a 1.077 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 7 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 10 RBIs over that span. Conforto owns a .367 average with a .551 slugging percentage and a 1.002 OPS against right-handed pitching in 2020. He also possesses a .432 wOBA and a .184 ISO against righties this season.
Conforto gets an elite matchup against Jorge Lopez tonight. In 2019, Lopez allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .332 average with a .590 slugging percentage and a .405 wOBA. Conforto is expected to hit second in the New York Mets lineup tonight. He’s been an elite option in New York this season and that will continue in this game. Conforto comes with as much upside as nearly any outfielder on this slate.
SuperDraft
Shin-Soo Choo (1.5x)
Choo has posted a .257 average with a .457 slugging percentage and a .799 OPS over his last 10 games. He recorded three extra-base hits (two home runs), five RBIs, and two stolen bases in those games. Choo found more success against right-handed pitching in 2019, hitting for a .280 average with a .494 slugging percentage and a .886 OPS. He ended last season with a .376 wOBA and a .214 ISO against righties, as well.
Choo gets a great matchup against Julio Teheran tonight. Teheran has struggled early in 2020, allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .318 average with a .727 slugging percentage and a .443 wOBA. Choo is expected to hit third in the Texas Rangers offense. They don’t project as an elite offense on a nightly basis, but Choo can score fantasy points with his power or speed. He also gets a 1.5x multiplier on SuperDraft, adding to his overall upside tonight.
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