Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Sixto Sanchez
Sanchez has looked elite early in his MLB career. He owns 19 strikeouts over 19 innings while allowing only 5 earned runs. Sanchez’s 2.37 ERA is backed by a 2.65 xFIP and a 2.76 SIERA. He boasts 26.8% strikeout and 13.9% swinging-strike rates through 3 games in 2020. Sanchez also owns an elite 62.7% ground ball rate, limiting the amount of damage his opponents can do against him. He has yet to throw on the road which is a concern but his ability to stifle left-handed batters early in his career bodes well for his success in Atlanta tonight.
Sanchez gets an interesting matchup against the Atlanta Braves tonight. They rank fifth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, although they also lead the slate in team wOBA. Sanchez is a +112 underdog in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving the Braves an implied team total of 5.0 runs. Sanchez already flashed 30+ fantasy points upside through only 3 games in his career. He’s flashed throughout his time in the minors and was the Miami Marlins top prospect entering the season. He’s bound to struggle at some point in 2020 but he’s extremely cheap and comes with elite upside for his price tag tonight.
Dan Vogelbach
Vogelbach is only hitting for a .185 average with a .333 slugging percentage and a .667 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns two extra-base hits (one home run) and three RBIs. Vogelbach was at his best against right-handed pitching in 2019, posting a .225 average with a .485 slugging percentage and a .844 OPS. He also ended the 2019 season with a .355 wOBA and a .260 ISO against righties.
Vogelbach gets a matchup against Spencer Turnbull tonight. Turnbull struggled against left-handed batters last season, allowing them to hit for a .298 average with a .444 slugging percentage and a .347 wOBA. He’s also due for quite a bit of regression against lefties this season. Vogelbach is playing for his third team in 2020 but he’s expected to hit fourth for the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. He’s a powerful option who comes with tremendous upside for a cheap price tag. He’s a great one-off option against Turnbull tonight.
Max Muncy
Muncy has seen mixed results in recent games, posting a .229 average with a .429 slugging percentage and a .792 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he possesses three extra-base hits (two home runs) and five RBIs. Muncy recorded a .242 average with a .509 slugging percentage and a .887 OPS against right-handed pitching last season. He also posted a .372 wOBA and a .267 ISO against righties in 2019.
Muncy will face off against Luke Weaver, who is allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .314 average with a .629 slugging percentage and a .423 wOBA this season. He’s also allowed his opponents to hit for a .333/.611/.419 line in limited innings in Arizona in 2020. Muncy is expected to continue hitting third in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. He’s a high upside option in one of the top offenses on this slate, although he may be going a bit overlooked.
Corey Dickerson
Dickerson is only hitting for a .132 average over the last 10 days but he also owns a .421 slugging percentage and a .654 OPS over that span. He posted four extra-base hits (three home runs) and six RBIs in those games. In 2019, Dickerson recorded a .313 average with a .587 slugging percentage and a .942 OPS against right-handed pitching. He ended the season with a .380 wOBA and a .274 ISO against righties, as well.
Dickerson gets a great matchup against a struggling Kyle Wright tonight. Wright has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .347 average with a .627 slugging percentage and a .456 wOBA throughout his career. He’s also allowed a career .315/.506/.389 line to opponents in Atlanta. Dickerson is currently expected to lead off for the Miami Marlins tonight. He’s averaging 11.8 fantasy points per game over his last 4 contests and could continue to find that success in this matchup.
Mike Trout
Trout has caught fire recently, posting a .424 average with a 1.000 slugging percentage and a 1.565 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 9 extra-base hits (5 home runs) and 13 RBIs over that span. Trout was better against right-handed pitching in 2019, hitting for a .303 average with a .682 slugging percentage and a 1.124 OPS. He also recorded a .449 wOBA and a .379 ISO against righties in 2019.
Trout gets a matchup against Lance Lynn, who was dominant against right-handed batters in 2019 but that hasn’t transferred to 2020. He’s allowing righties to hit for a .209 average with a .418 slugging percentage and a .315 wOBA. His 4.87 xFIP against righties in 2020 suggests that he could be due for regression, as well. Trout isn’t going to come cheap but he’s expected to hit second in the Los Angeles Angels lineup tonight. He makes a great option on this slate.
SuperDraft
Ben Gamel (1.7x)
Gamel is hitting for a .355 average with a .419 slugging percentage and a .919 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts two extra-base hits and one RBI in those games. Gamel has been a reverse splits hitter throughout his career but he still owns a .255 average with a .382 slugging percentage and a .709 OPS against right-handed pitching. He has recorded a .308 wOBA and a .127 ISO against righties throughout his career, as well.
Gamel gets a matchup against Spencer Turnbull, who has been outlined in the Dan Vogelbach recommendation. Gamel is expected to lead off for the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. He flashed upside in recent games and gets a 1.7x multiplier on SuperDraft. He’s a solid tournament option in a plus matchup tonight.
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