Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Zach Plesac
Plesac has only started four games in 2020. He’s allowed 4 runs over 27 innings while striking out 30 batters. His 1.33 ERA is backed by a 2.90 xFIP and a 3.01 SIERA. He’s changed his pitch mix a bit in 2020, resulting in 30.3% strikeout and 14% swinging-strike rates. Plesac boasts nearly identical xFIPs on the road and at home and against either handedness throughout his career. He struck out 11 batters over 8 shutout innings against a tough Chicago White Sox offense in his only start in Cleveland this season, though.
Plesac gets a great matchup against the Kansas City Royals tonight. They rank fourth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat while also ranking in the bottom-five of the slate in team wOBA. Plesac is a -199 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving the Royals an implied team total of only 3.5 runs. This is an extremely strong pitching slate with options for a variety of price tags. That will help push the ownership off of Plesac, as Max Scherzer, Dinelson Lamet, Zac Gallen and Kevin Gausman could all command more ownership than Plesac. He’s an elite tournament option on this slate.
Miguel Andujar
Andujar has seen mixed results over his last 10 games Over that span, he owns a .333 average with a .417 slugging percentage and a .824 OPS. He owns one extra-base hit and one RBI over that span. Andujar boasts a .251 average with a .455 slugging percentage and a .752 OPS against left-handed pitching throughout his career. He also possesses a career .318 wOBA and a .204 ISO against lefties.
Andujar gets an interesting matchup against Hyun Jin Ryu tonight. He has thrown at an extremely high level but allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .245 average with a .370 slugging percentage and a .275 wOBA in 2019. Ryu will also be throwing in the Toronto Blue Jays’ new hitter-friendly stadium in Buffalo. Andujar is expected to hit seventh in the New York Yankees lineup tonight. He’s extremely cheap, though, and has found success when given starts in 2020. There are very limited games on this slate, making Andujar a great option in tournaments.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Gurriel has caught fire recently, hitting for a .378 average with a .622 slugging percentage and a 1.061 OPS over his last 10 games. In those games, he boasts five extra-base hits (two home runs), six RBIs, and one stolen base. Gurriel was at his best against left-handed pitching in 2019, posting a .300 average with a .664 slugging percentage and a .994 OPS. He also ended last season with a .403 wOBA and a .364 ISO against lefties.
Gurriel gets a great matchup against Jordan Montgomery, who failed to complete the first inning in his last start. Throughout his career, Montgomery has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .258 average with a .421 slugging percentage and a .316 wOBA. He’s also allowed a .249/.465/.325 line to his opponents on the road last season. Gurriel is expected to hit fifth in the Toronto Blue Jays lineup tonight. He’s been extremely consistent while flashing plenty of upside in recent games. Still, he’s going a bit overlooked and makes an outstanding option for a reasonable price tag.
SuperDraft
Josh Reddick (1.75x)
Reddick has cooled down a bit recently, recording a .194 average with a .387 slugging percentage and a .644 OPS over his last 10 games. He posted two home runs and seven RBIs over that span, as well. Reddick was better against left-handed pitching last season but still posted a .266 average with a .386 slugging percentage and a .696 OPS against righties. He also posted a .295 wOBA and a .120 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2019.
Reddick gets a matchup against Frankie Montas tonight. Montas has struggled against left-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .313 average with a .484 slugging percentage and a .389 wOBA. Reddick is currently questionable to play tonight but is expected to hit second if he’s in the lineup. He gets a 1.75x multiplier on SuperDraft and makes a high upside tournament option tonight.
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