Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Aaron Civale
Civale has found plenty of success through 7 starts in 2020. He has recorded 43 strikeouts over 46 innings while allowing only 19 earned runs. His 3.72 ERA is backed by a 3.53 xFIP and a 3.76 SIERA this season. Civale owns a 23.5% strikeout rate to go along with an 11.2% swinging-strike rate. Although it is in limited innings, Civale boasts a 2.76 xFIP in Cleveland against two tough opponents. He also looks elite against right-handed batters, holding them to a 2.84 xFIP in 2020.
Civale gets a great matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. They rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat while also ranking as a below-average offense in terms of team wOBA. Civale is currently a -132 favorite in a game set at only 7.5 runs. The Brewers feature an implied team total of only 3.5 runs tonight. In his only home games in 2020, Civale has posted 26.7 and 18.7 fantasy points. He’s a player that is going to go overlooked because of the plethora of great pitching options on this slate. He isn’t safe enough to be a top cash game option but he comes with more than enough upside to be used in tournaments tonight.
Rowdy Tellez
Tellez has caught fire for the Toronto Blue Jays over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns a .370 average with a .741 slugging percentage and a 1.195 OPS. He also boasts four extra-base hits (three home runs) and seven RBIs. Tellez is hitting for a .242 average with a .497 slugging percentage and a .805 OPS against right-handed pitching throughout his career. He also possesses a .334 wOBA and a .255 ISO against righties.
Tellez gets a solid matchup against Ryan Weber tonight. Weber has struggled throughout his career against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .276 average with a .520 slugging percentage and a .363 wOBA. He has also allowed a .289/.479/.345 line in home games in his career, although he has thrown in a variety of ballparks. Tellez is expected to hit third for Toronto tonight. He’s a consistent option, who comes with a low price tag and plenty of upside because of his power. He’s also hitting in a lineup that could find plenty of success tonight, making him a great GPP option.
Max Muncy
Muncy is hitting for a .257 average with a .543 slugging percentage and a .943 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns four extra-base hits (three home runs) and eight RBIs over that span. Muncy posted a .242 average with a .509 slugging percentage and a .887 OPS against right-handed pitching last season. He also ended 2019 with a .372 wOBA and a .267 ISO against righties.
Muncy gets a tough matchup against German Marquez tonight. Marquez struggled a bit against left-handed batters in 2019, allowing them to hit for a .264 average with a .480 slugging percentage and a .328 wOBA. Muncy is expected to hit third in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup due to injuries, though. He was outlined in this article yesterday, hit a home run in the bottom of the first, and I’m going back to the well, especially if he’s going to be low owned tonight.
Clint Frazier
Fraizer has found some success over his last 10 games, posting a .250 average with a .469 slugging percentage and a .883 OPS. He owns three-extra base hits (two home runs), five RBIs, and one stolen base over that span, as well. Throughout his career, Frazier owns a .228 average with a .447 slugging percentage and a .743 OPS against left-handed pitching. He also has posted a .311 wOBA and a .219 ISO against lefties.
Frazier gets a matchup against Keegan Akin tonight. Akin has thrown limited innings in the Majors but has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .250 average with a .625 slugging percentage and a .426 wOBA. He also doesn’t project to be a great MLB starter. Frazier is expected to hit fourth in the New York Yankees lineup tonight, adding to his upside. He’s still far too cheap for his upside, and he’s one of the top tournament outfielders on this slate.
Darin Ruf
Ruf is only hitting for a .190 average with a .429 slugging percentage and a .656 OPS in limited at-bats over his last 10 games. Over that span, he’s posted three extra-base hits (one home run) and three RBIs. Throughout his MLB career, Ruff is hitting for a .288 average with a .510 slugging percentage and a .878 OPS against left-handed pitching. He also owns a .376 wOBA and a .222 ISO against lefties.
Ruff gets a great matchup against Madison Bumgarner, who has struggled in 2020. Last season, Bumgarner allowed right-handed batters to post a .258 average with a .456 slugging percentage and a .318 wOBA. Ruf is currently expected to hit fifth in the San Francisco Giants lineup. There’s always the chance that the Giants pinch-hit for him but he’s the minimum price and comes with tremendous upside in this matchup.
SuperDraft
Victor Robles (1.6x)
Robles owns a .278 average with a .306 slugging percentage and a .613 OPS over his last 10 games. He only recorded one extra-base hit and one RBI over that span, though. Robles ended the 2019 season with a .248 average, .394 slugging percentage, and .740 OPS against left-handed pitching. He also recorded a .323 wOBA and a .146 ISO against lefties in 2019.
Robles gets a tough matchup against Max Fried, who has found plenty of success this season. Fried did allow right-handed batters to hit for a .281 average with a .435 slugging percentage and a .326 wOBA in 2019, though. Robles is expected to lead off for the Washington Nationals tonight. If he isn’t, he shouldn’t be considered. He comes with stolen base upside, adding to his value with a 1.6x multiplier on SuperDraft.
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