Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Carlos Carrasco
Carrasco has found plenty of success through 7 starts in 2020. He owns 45 strikeouts while allowing 15 earned runs over 36 innings. His 3.75 ERA is backed by a 3.87 xFIP and a 4.07 SIERA. Carrasco enters this game with 29.4% strikeout and 13.5% swinging-strike rates, as well. In his last full season, he posted a 2.98 xFIP in Cleveland. He also found more success at home in somewhat of limited innings in 2019. Furthermore, he posted a 2.71 xFIP against right-handed batters in 2018, although he has also found plenty of success against lefties, as well.
Carrasco gets a great matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers, who rank fifth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also rank as an average offense in terms of team wOBA tonight. He’s a -136 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, giving Milwaukee an implied team total of only 3.7 runs. Carrasco has flashed upside in 2020, scoring 30+ fantasy points in 2 of his first 3 games, but he has now scored single-digit fantasy points in 2 of his last 3 contests. He’s a player that is going to go overlooked in favor of Yu Darvish, making him a strong tournament option in a plus matchup.
Jose Marmolejos
Marmolejos has found quite a bit of success recently, posting a .257 average with a .657 slugging percentage and a .973 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 6 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 10 RBIs in those games, as well. Marmolejos has only played 14 games in the MLB but he posted a .315 average with a .545 slugging percentage and a .379 wOBA in Triple-A last season. He recorded 16 home runs and 63 RBIs over 101 games with the Washington Nationals Triple-A affiliate.
Marmolejos gets an interesting matchup against Kyle Cody, who will be making his first career MLB start tonight. Cody has thrown well out of the pen in limited innings but doesn’t project to be a great MLB pitcher, especially as a starter. Marmolejos is expected to hit fifth in the Seattle Mariners lineup tonight. He’s near the minimum price on DraftKings, even though he’s averaging nearly 10 fantasy points per game over his last 10 games. He’s an elite option that is seemingly going overlooked tonight.
Max Muncy
Muncy has caught fire, hitting for a .303 average with a .606 slugging percentage and a 1.061 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts four extra-base hits (three home runs) and eight RBIs over that span. Muncy ended the 2019 season with a .242 average, .509 slugging percentage, and .887 OPS against right-handed pitching. He also recorded a .372 wOBA and a .267 ISO against righties last season.
Muncy gets a matchup against Antonio Senzatela tonight. Senzatela allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .327 average with a .538 slugging percentage and a .394 wOBA in 2019. He also gave up a .325/.517/.390 line to his opponents on the road. Muncy is expected to hit third in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, but he isn’t projected for a ton of ownership tonight. He’s a high upside option in a great matchup.
Tim Locastro
Locastro owns a .263 average with a .263 slugging percentage and a .680 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns only one stolen base. Last season, Locastro only hit for a .225 average with a .362 slugging percentage and a .717 OPS against left-handed pitching. He posted a .320 wOBA and a .138 ISO against lefties in 2019, as well.
Locastro gets a great matchup against Tim Anderson tonight. Anderson has struggled against right-handed batters throughout his career, allowing them to hit for a .265 average with a .466 slugging percentage and a .335 wOBA. Anderson has found success in San Francisco through 14.2 innings in 2020 but he’s due for regression as he continues to throw more. Locastro is expected to lead off for the Arizona Diamondbacks on this slate. While he doesn’t come with elite power, he’s extremely cheap and gets his upside from his speed on the basepath.
Michael Conforto
Conforto has looked great over his last 10 games, posting a .368 average with a .632 slugging percentage and a 1.032 OPS over that span. He also owns six extra-base hits (two home runs), nine RBIs, and one stolen base in those games. Conforto recorded a .264 average with a .544 slugging percentage and a .926 OPS against right-handed pitching last season. He also ended the 2019 season with a .382 wOBA and a .280 ISO against lefties.
Conforto gets a great matchup against Jake Arrieta tonight. Arrieta was at his worst against left-handed batters in 2019, giving up a .317 average with a .538 slugging percentage and a .387 wOBA. Conforto is expected to hit second in the New York Mets lineup tonight. He has looked elite at home in 2020 and could continue that in a great matchup. He isn’t cheap anymore but makes a great tournament option regardless.
SuperDraft
Josh Reddick (1.65x)
Reddick has quietly found success in recent games, hitting for a .286 average with a .464 slugging percentage and a .808 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts three extra-base hits (one home run) and five RBIs in those games. Reddick was a reverse splits hitter in 2019 but still posted a .266 average with a .386 slugging percentage and a .696 OPS against right-handed pitching. He ended the season with a .295 wOBA and a .120 ISO against righties, as well.
Reddick gets a tough matchup against Dylan Bundy, who is in the middle of a breakout season. In 2019, Bundy allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .274 average with a .452 slugging percentage and a .330 wOBA, suggesting lefties could find success against him. Reddick is expected to hit second in the Houston Astros lineup tonight. He doesn’t come with elite power or speed but he gets a 1.65x multiplier on SuperDraft. He’s a great tournament option tonight.
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