Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Zach Eflin
Eflin has thrown well through five starts in 2020. He’s allowed 14 runs (12 earned runs) while striking out 37 batters over 26.1 innings. His ERA sits at 4.10 although he boasts a 3.02 xFIP and a 3.18 SIERA. Most importantly, Eflin has recorded 33.3% strikeout and 9.6% swinging-strike rates. Although his strikeouts are likely to regress a bit, he comes with plenty of upside still. He’s a pitcher that found significantly more success against right-handed batters in 2019, holding them to a 4.14 xFIP, although he did struggle at times in Philadelphia last season.
Eflin gets a tough matchup against the Washington Nationals, who rank last on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They feature an average offense in terms of team wOBA on this slate, though. Eflin is currently a -156 favorite in a game set at 10.5 runs, giving the Nationals an implied team total of 4.7 runs. He’s also coming off of his best start of the season, scoring 31.4 fantasy points in a home win over the Atlanta Braves. This is a smaller slate, meaning there are a number of pitchers that will feature ownership tonight. Eflin isn’t projected to be one of the but he enters this game with great metrics and boasts a surprisingly low price tag.
Austin Nola
Nola has caught fire recently, posting a .364 average with a .545 slugging percentage and a .995 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts two home runs and six RBIs over that span, as well. Nola has recorded a .257 average with a .524 slugging percentage and a .874 OPS against left-handed pitching throughout his career. He also owns a .360 wOBA and a .267 ISO against lefties since entering the Majors.
Nola gets an interesting matchup against Andrew Heaney tonight. Heaney was a reverse splits pitcher in 2019, holding right-handed batters to a .231 average with a .427 slugging percentage and a .307 wOBA. He was due for quite a bit of regression against them, though. Nola will be making his debut for the San Diego Padres tonight and he’s expected to hit fifth in their lineup. He boasts extra upside from sliding into the best offense in the MLB, making him an elite option at catcher.
Todd Frazier
Frazier has been ice cold recently, as he’s hitting for a .128 average with a .179 slugging percentage and a .370 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns one extra-base hit and two RBIs in those games. Frazier dominates left-handed pitching, though, posting a .294 average with a .540 slugging percentage and a .913 OPS against lefties in 2019. He ended that season with a .382 wOBA and a .246 ISO against left-handed pitching, as well.
Frazier gets a great matchup against J.A. Happ on this slate. Happ struggled against right-handed batters in 2019, allowing them to hit for a .268 average with a .503 slugging percentage and a .345 wOBA. Frazier is now back with the New York Mets and he’s expected to hit fourth in their lineup tonight. He’s a player that comes with quite a bit of risk, but he also comes with tremendous upside in this matchup.
SuperDraft
J.D. Davis (1.65x)
Davis has seen mixed results recently, posting a .250 average with a .281 slugging percentage and a .615 OPS over his last 10 games He owns one extra-base hit over that span, as well. Davis was elite against left-handed pitching in 2019, ending the season with a .312 average, .539 slugging percentage, and .913 OPS. He also recorded a .378 wOBA and a .227 ISO against lefties last season.
Davis gets a matchup against J.A. Happ, who has already been outlined in the Todd Frazier recommendation. Davis is expected to hit second in the Mets lineup and I don’t expect his lack of power to continue for much longer. He gets the added 1.65x multiplier on SuperDraft, making him an outstanding option on this smaller slate.
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