Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Alex Cobb
Cobb has seen mixed results through 9 starts this season, striking out 34 batters while allowing 26 runs (24 earned runs) over 45.1 innings. He owns a 4.76 ERA to go along with a 4.17 xFIP and a 4.67 SIERA. He only owns 17% strikeout and 9.9% swinging-strike rates in 2020. Cobb has been slightly better on the road this season, posting a 4.09 xFIP outside of Baltimore. He has also held left-handed batters to a 3.78 xFIP while struggling a bit more against right-handed batters.
Cobb gets a matchup against the Boston Red Sox, who rank third on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also rank third on the slate in team wOBA, though, adding to Cobb’s risk. He’s a +145 underdog in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving the Red Sox an implied team total of 5.4 runs tonight. Cobb posted 23 fantasy points in Boston in his first start of the season. He certainly comes with risk but it’s a small slate, leaving us limited options. With Kris Bubic, Cristian Javier, and Corbin Burnes likely commanding most of the ownership at starting pitcher, Cobb quietly makes a high upside GPP play for a low price tag.
Jedd Gyorko
Gyorko has found success in recent games, posting a .250 average with a .469 slugging percentage and a .802 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts three extra-base hits (two home runs) and five RBIs in those games. Gyorko enters this game with a .293 average, .707 slugging percentage, and 1.141 OPS against left-handed pitching in 2020. He also brings a .457 wOBA and a .415 ISO against lefties into this game.
Gyorko gets an interesting matchup against Kwang Hyun Kim tonight. Kim has held right-handed batters to a .182 average with a .323 slugging percentage and a .235 wOBA this season. With that being said, he’s due for a ton of regression against righties in 2020 and I’m expecting that to come tonight. Gyorko is expected to hit fourth in the Milwaukee Brewers lineup. He’s a safe option who also comes with tremendous upside against left-handed pitching. He’s also found more success on the road in 2020, making him a great option in all leagues tonight.
Ryan Mountcastle
Mountcastle is hitting for a .297 average with a .405 slugging percentage and a .730 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns two extra-base hits (one home run) and six RBIs. Mountcastle boasts a .296 average with a .370 slugging percentage and a .725 OPS against left-handed pitching this season. He also owns a .318 wOBA and a .074 ISO against lefties, although he has flashed more against right-handed pitching thus far.
Mountcastle gets a good matchup against Martin Perez, who has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .224 average with a .379 slugging percentage and a .304 wOBA this season. Surprisingly, Perez is due for more regression against left-handed batters than righties but he doesn’t project as dominant against either side of the plate. Mountcastle is expected to hit third in the Baltimore Orioles lineup. He’s still far too cheap for his upside, making him an outstanding tournament option tonight.
SuperDraft
Avisail Garcia (1.6x)
Garcia has posted a .265 average with a .294 slugging percentage and a .600 OPS over his last 10 games. He only owns one extra-base hit and one RBI in those games. Garcia does boast a .326 average with a .522 slugging percentage and a .978 OPS against left-handed pitching in 2020. He also enters this game with a .414 wOBA and a .196 ISO against lefties in 2020.
Garcia gets a great matchup against Kwang Hyun Kim, who has already been outlined in the Jedd Gyorko recommendation. Garcia is expected to lead off and his 1.6x multiplier on SuperDraft will help make up for his lack of power. He’s a solid option in a plus matchup tonight.
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