Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Keegan Akin
Akin has thrown well this season, striking out 25 batters while allowing 9 runs (7 earned runs) over 18.2 innings. He owns a 3.38 ERA to go along with a 4.07 xFIP and a 3.89 SIERA through 6 games (4 starts). He also enters this game with 31.3% strikeout and 13.8% swinging-strike rates in the MLB. Akin boasts a similar xFIP regardless of if he’s throwing at home or on the road although his innings are limited. He brings a 2.94 xFIP against left-handed batters into this game, as well.
Akin gets a great matchup against the Boston Red Sox tonight. They lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat while also ranking as a below-average offense in terms of team wOBA. Akin is currently a -104 underdog in a game set at 10 runs, giving the Red Sox an implied team total of 5.1 runs. He has flashed in 2 of his last 3 games, scoring 30.9 and 23.8 fantasy points against the Atlanta Braves and New York Yankees. I recently used J.A. Happ in this exact spot and Akin isn’t far behind him. He’ll feature low ownership because of the ridiculous total in this game but he makes an elite tournament option because of his strikeout potential tonight.
Wilmer Flores
Flores has seen mixed results in recent games, posting a .194 average with a .452 slugging percentage and a .737 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns five extra-base hits (one home run) and four RBIs in those contests, as well. Flores has looked great against left-handed pitching in 2020, recording a .268 average with a .589 slugging percentage and a .901 OPS against lefties this season. He also enters this game with a .365 wOBA and a .321 ISO against left-handed pitching in 2020.
Flores gets an interesting matchup against Kyle Freeland, who has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .265 average with a .389 slugging percentage and a .313 wOBA this season. Freeland has thrown extremely well on the road in 2020, as well. With that being said, Fores is expected to hit fifth in the San Francisco Giants lineup and comes with far too cheap of a price tag. He’ll also benefit from hitting in San Francisco, where he owns a .305/.524/.880 line on the season.
Maikel Franco
Franco has been on fire, as he’s hitting for a .342 average with a .447 slugging percentage and a .866 OPS over his last 10 games. He has posted 2 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 10 RBIs in those games. Franco has recorded a .333 average with a .417 slugging percentage and a .817 OPS against left-handed pitching this season. He brings a .362 wOBA and a .083 ISO against lefties into this game.
Franco gets a matchup against Austin Gomber who is due for plenty of regression this season. He has held right-handed batters to a .222 average with a .244 slugging percentage and a .276 wOBA. More importantly, he won’t throw deep into this game, and the St. Louis Cardinals feature one of the worst bullpens in the MLB in September. Franco is expected to hit fifth in the Kansas City Royals lineup tonight. He’s been a consistent option with elite upside in recent games and makes a great option on this slate.
Kole Calhoun
Calhoun is another player that has found success recently, posting a .361 average with a 1.000 slugging percentage and a 1.419 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 9 extra-base hits (7 home runs), 16 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over that span. Calhoun has recorded a .248 average with a .581 slugging percentage and a .955 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. He owns a .398 wOBA and a .333 ISO against righties in 2020, as well.
Calhoun gets an elite matchup against Jordan Lyles tonight. Lyles has struggled this season, allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .260 average with a .427 slugging percentage and a .336 wOBA. He’s a pitcher that’s due for regression on the road,, as well. Calhoun is expected to hit fourth in the Arizona Diamondbacks lineup tonight. He’s posted double-digit fantasy points in five of his last six games. He’s an elite option on this slate, although his price has been on the rise in recent games.
Pavin Smith
Smith has only played in 7 games this season, recording a .308 average with a .385 slugging percentage and a .729 OPS. He owns one extra-base hit, two RBIs, and one stolen base in those contests. Smith ended his Double-A stint in 2019 with a .291 average and a .466 slugging percentage. He’s a player that has yet to flash his true upside in the MLB, although it’s only a matter of time before that comes.
Smith gets an elite matchup against Jordan Lyles, who has already been outlined in the Kole Calhoun recommendation. Smith isn’t guaranteed to get in the lineup tonight but he could hit anywhere from top to bottom if he’s starting. If that’s the case, he’s far too cheap for this slate and makes a great option.
SuperDraft
D.J. Stewart (1.8x)
Stewart has cooled off in recent games, as he’s hitting for a .121 average with a .242 slugging percentage and a .479 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns two extra-base hits (one home run) and six RBIs in those games. Stewart has posted a .214 average with a .571 slugging percentage and a .960 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. He also boasts a .405 wOBA and a .357 ISO against righties in 2020.
Stewart gets a great matchup against Nick Pivetta, who allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .261 average with a .517 slugging percentage and a .357 wOBA in 2019. In very limited innings in 2020, he has also given up a ridiculous .455/1.273/.695 line to lefties. Stewart is expected to hit third in the Baltimore Orioles lineup tonight. He’s somewhat of a boom or bust option but very few players come with his upside on SuperDraft because of his 1.8x multiplier.
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