Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Brandon Woodruff
Wood has looked great this season, holding his opponents to 24 runs (23 earned runs) while striking out 72 batters over 60 innings in 11 starts. His 3.45 ERA is backed by a 3.53 xFIP and a 3.46 SIERA. He has also looked dominant with 29.5% strikeout and 13.4% swinging-strike rates in 2020. Woodruff boasts similar splits at home and on the road, holding his opponents to a 3.45 xFIP away from Milwaukee. He has also held right-handed batters to a 2.97 xFIP this season.
Woodruff gets an interesting matchup against the Cincinnati Reds tonight. They rank as an average team in strikeouts per-at on this slate while ranking as a below-average offense in terms of team wOBA. Woodruff is a +113 underdog in a game set at 7.5 runs, giving the Reds an implied team total of only 4.0 runs tonight. Woodruff comes with elite upside on this slate but Jacob deGrom, Luis Castillo, and Lance McCullers are expected to garner the majority of the ownership. Woodruff is throwing in a hitter-friendly stadium, which is concerning, although he’ll benefit from the wind blowing in around 5 mph. He’s an elite tournament option tonight.
Ke’Bryan Hayes
Hayes has been playing at a high level, hitting for a .294 average with a .559 slugging percentage and a .927 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns five extra-base hits (two home runs), five RBIs, and one stolen base in those games. Hayes has dominated left-handed pitching in limited games this season, posting a .462 average with a .923 slugging percentage and a 1.423 OPS. He also owns a .585 wOBA and a .462 ISO against lefties in 2020.
Hayes gets a great matchup against Jon Lester tonight. Lester has struggled against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .262 average with a .492 slugging percentage and a .344 wOBA this season. Lester has also struggled in September this season. Hayes is currently expected to hit second in the Pittsburgh Pirates lineup tonight. He’s a player that comes with tremendous upside because of his combination of speed and power and he’s an elite GPP play on this slate.
Corey Dickerson
Dickerson is hitting for a .286 average with a .400 slugging percentage and a .742 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns two extra-base hits (one home run), four RBIs, and one stolen base. Dickerson boasts a .274 average with a .411 slugging percentage and a .754 OPS against right-handed pitching in 2020. He enters this game with a .327 wOBA and a .137 ISO against righties this season.
Dickerson gets an interesting matchup against Huascar Ynoa on this slate. Throughout his short career, Ynoa has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .278 average with a .389 slugging percentage and a .351 wOBA. He’s also due for massive regression against lefties. Dickerson is expected to lead off for the Miami Marlins tonight, and he has found plenty of success in recent games. He’s a high upside option for a relatively low price that will go overlooked in a great spot tonight.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Gurriel continues to find success for the Toronto Blue Jays, posting a .316 average with a .684 slugging percentage and a 1.018 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns six extra-base hits (four home runs) and seven RBIs in those contests. Gurriel is hitting for a .321 average with a .565 slugging percentage and a .931 OPS against right-handed pitching in 2020. He also owns a .392 wOBA and a .244 ISO against righties this season.
Gurriel is expected to get a matchup against Michael King, who has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .260 average with a .420 slugging percentage and a .319 wOBA this season. Gurriel is expected to hit fourth in the Toronto lineup and he’ll benefit from playing in their hitter-friendly stadium. He’s a player that tends to go overlooked at times but he makes an outstanding tournament option during this current hot streak.
SuperDraft
Matt Joyce (1.9x)
Joyce has been ice cold in recent games, recording a .200 average with a .200 slugging percentage and a .459 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he doesn’t have any extra-base hits with only one RBI. Joyce does boast a .258 average with a .361 slugging percentage and a .726 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. He also owns a .327 wOBA and a .103 ISO against righties in 2020.
Joyce gets a great matchup against Huascar Ynoa, who has already been outlined in the Corey Dickerson recommendation. Normally, Joyce wouldn’t be a great option but Ynoa’s regression is coming and Joyce certainly comes with some upside. He also boasts an elite 1.9x multiplier on SuperDraft and will benefit in playing in Atlanta’s ballpark, which is known as a hitter-friendly stadium for any left-handed batter with some power.
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