Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Jordan Montgomery
Montgomery has seen mixed results in 2020. He’s allowed 13 runs (12 earned runs) over 24.1 innings while striking out 20 batters. He boasts a 3.90 xFIP and a 4.04 SIERA to go with his 4.44 ERA. His strikeout rate sits at only 20% but his 12.7% swinging-strike rate suggests he could see positive regression in that aspect as he throws more innings. Montgomery has also been at his best in New York, where he boasts a 4.17 career xFIP. He has found more success against left-handed batters, although he owns a near-identical xFIP against either handedness.
Montgomery gets a matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays, who don’t strike out at a high rate but also rank as an average offense in the terms of team wOBA on this slate. Montgomery is a -129 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving Tampa Bay an implied team total of 4.3 runs tonight. He hasn’t looked dominant this season but he has flashed upside if his strikeouts continue to increase. Montgomery’s success at home has been apparent, as well, and he should be able to take advantage of an injured Tampa Bay offense. He’s also cheap enough that he doesn’t need an elite performance to exceed value.
Bobby Dalbec
Dalbec has only played in two games in 2020. He’s hitting for a .250 average with a .625 slugging percentage and a .875 OPS. He hit a home run in his first game in the Majors, as well. Dalbec doesn’t project as a consistent option but his power should translate well to the MLB. Over 30 Triple-A games in 2010, he posted a .257 average with a .478 slugging percentage and a .327 wOBA.
Dalbec gets an elite matchup against Robbie Erlin tonight. Erlin struggled against right-handed batters last season, allowing them to hit for a .296 average with a .452 slugging percentage and a .329 wOBA. He has also struggled early in 2020, allowing 5 home runs over only 12 road innings. Dalbec is only hitting eighth in the Boston Red Sox lineup but he is a boom or bust option on this slate. He comes with the power to get to Erlin at any point in this game, making him an elite tournament option for his $2,500 price tag tonight.
Didi Gregorius
Gregorius has seen plenty of ups and downs in recent games, hitting for a .211 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .828 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns five extra-base hits (two home runs), four RBIs, and one stolen base over that span. Last season, Gregorius posted a .246 average with a .432 slugging percentage and a .712 OPS against right-handed pitching. He also ended the 2019 season with a .295 wOBA and a.186 ISO against righties.
Gregorius gets a tough matchup on paper against Max Scherzer. Scherzer hasn’t been his dominant self this season, though, and he allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .255 average with a .446 slugging percentage and a .321 wOBA last season. Gregorius is hitting second in the Philadelphia Phillies lineup tonight. He’s a player that has relied heavily on power for upside, and he’ll benefit from playing in an extremely hitter-friendly stadium against a pitcher that has mainly struggled with the home run ball.
Shin-Soo Choo
Choo is only hitting for a .200 average with a .250 slugging percentage and a .517 OPS over his last 10 games. He does own two extra-base hits, five RBIs, and three stolen bases in those games, though. Choo was also at his best against right-handed pitching in 2019, posting a .280 average with a .494 slugging percentage and a .886 OPS. He boasted a .376 wOBA and a .214 ISO against righties last season, as well.
Choo gets an interesting matchup against Christian Javier tonight. Javier has limited innings at the MLB level, but he has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .283 average with a .567 slugging percentage and a .389 wOBA. Choo is hitting third in the Texas Rangers lineup tonight. He hasn’t flashed the power that he has in recent games but he has flashed his speed. He comes with plenty of upside for his price tag because of his combination of those two traits.
Franmil Reyes
Reyes has caught fire in recent games, recording a .385 average with a .667 slugging percentage and a 1.095 OPS over his last 10 games. He posted seven extra-base hits (two home runs) and seven RBIs in those games. Reyes has been better against left-handed pitching in his career but still owns a .256 average with a .513 slugging percentage and a .821 OPS against righties. He boasts a career .342 wOBA and a .257 ISO against right-handed pitching, as well.
Reyes gets a great matchup against Jakob Junis on this slate. Junis allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .250 average with a .460 slugging percentage and a .326 wOBA in 2019. He’s also given up a .304/.478/.347 line to righties in limited innings this season. Reyes is expected to hit fifth in the Cleveland Indians lineup tonight. He’s one of their top bats at the moment but isn’t priced nearly as high as some of the other options. His ownership project is a bit surprising but there are a number of offenses that will garner ownership before Cleveland.
SuperDraft
Trent Grisham (1.7x)
Grisham is coming off of a Coors series and he’s hitting .255 with a .596 slugging percentage and a .867 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns seven extra-base hits (four home runs) and nine RBIs in those games. Grisham has been at his best against right-handed pitching throughout his career, posting a .248 average with a .478 slugging percentage and a .829 OPS. He also recorded a .352 wOBA and a .230 ISO against righties throughout his career.
Grisham gets a matchup against Julio Teheran, who held left-handed batters to a .215 average with a .358 slugging percentage and a .308 wOBA in 2019. He was due for massive regression, though, and that seems to be coming early in 2020. Grisham is expected to lead off for the San Diego Padres and he still is gifted a 1.7x multiplier on SuperDraft. He’s an elite option on this slate.
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