Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Zach Plesac
Plesac has looked great this season, striking out 39 batters while allowing only 10 earned runs over 41 innings in 6 starts. He owns a 3.67 xFIP and a 3.60 SIERA to go along with a 2.20 ERA. He enters this game with 25.5% strikeout and 14.2% swinging-strike rates in 2020, as well. Plesac has struggled a bit more on the road this season, recording a 4.06 xFIP through 26 innings. He has been slightly better against left-handed batters, although he has found similar success against either handedness this season.
Plesac gets a great matchup against the Detroit Tigers tonight. They rank sixth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat while also ranking in the bottom-six in team wOBA. Plesac is a -191 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving the Tigers an implied team total of 3.8 runs. He’s a pitcher that has proven he can throw deep into games, throwing 7+ innings in 4 of his 6 starts this season. Plesac is likely to go overlooked in favor of Tyler Glasnow and Chris Paddack on this slate. That could change by lock but Plesac is one of the top options on this slate, regardless of ownership, making him an elite tournament option if he is going to go overlooked tonight.
Carlos Santana
Santana is only hitting for a .182 average with a .303 slugging percentage and a .660 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns two extra-base hits (one home runs) and four RBIs over that span. Santana has struggled a bit against right-handed pitching, though, posting a .179 average with a .260 slugging percentage and a .634 OPS in 2020. He owns a .309 wOBA and a .081 ISO against righties this season,, as well.
Santana will get an initial matchup against Michael Fulmer, who has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .278 average with a .407 slugging percentage and a .345 wOBA this season. He’ll then face off against Daniel Norris, who has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .250/.361/.289 line this season. Santana is expected to hit fourth in the Cleveland Indians lineup tonight. Regardless of who is on the mound for the Detroit Tigers, Santana can find success tonight. He’s surprisingly cheap on this slate and makes an elite tournament option.
Xander Bogaerts
Bogaerts continues to play well, posting a .300 average with a .450 slugging percentage and a .799 OPS over his last 10 games. He recorded two home runs, three RBIs, and two stolen bases over that span. Bogaerts has dominated left-handed pitching in 2020, as he owns a .360 average with a .640 slugging percentage and a 1.047 OPS. He also enters this game with a .440 wOBA and a .280 ISO against lefties this season.
Bogaerts gets an elite matchup against Jordan Montgomery tonight. He has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .290 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .352 wOBA this season. He has also given up a .353/.618/.429 line on the road in 2020. Bogaerts is expected to hit third in the Boston Red Sox lineup. His price tag has dropped a bit recently but he still comes with elite upside. Bogaerts offers a great combination of speed and power and he makes an outstanding tournament option on a Coors slate.
Randy Arozarena
Arozarena has looked phenomenal in recent games, hitting for a .320 average with a .720 slugging percentage and a 1.099 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts four extra-base hits (three home runs) and four RBIs in those games. In limited games throughout his career, Arozarena is hitting for a .250 average with a .444 slugging percentage and a .808 OPS against right-handed pitching. He also owns a .348 wOBA and a .194 ISO against righties.
Arozarena gets a matchup against Alex Cobb tonight. Cobb has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .250 average with a .440 slugging percentage and a .321 wOBA in 2020. Arozarena is currently expected to hit third in the Tampa Bay Rays lineup tonight. He’s been a consistent option while flashing plenty of upside in recent games. He’ll also benefit from playing in Baltimore’s hitter-friendly stadium, making him an outstanding option that is likely to go overlooked on this slate.
Wil Myers
Myers has caught fire recently, posting a .333 average with a .806 slugging percentage and a 1.174 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 7 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 10 RBIs in those contests. Myers owns a .352 average with a .685 slugging percentage and a 1.082 OPS against left-handed pitching this season. He has also recorded a .449 wOBA and a .333 ISO against lefties in 2020.
Myers gets an interesting matchup against Yusei Kikuchi tonight. Kikuchi has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .224 average with a .367 slugging percentage and a .280 wOBA this season, although he’s due for regression against righties. He has also given up a .316/.491/.358 line on the road and this game will be play in San Diego tonight. Myers is expected to hit fourth in the San Diego Padres lineup tonight and he comes with elite upside for a surprisingly low price tag.
SuperDraft
Shogo Akiyama (1.85x)
Akiyama has found plenty of success in recent games, recording a .375 average with a .406 slugging percentage and a .918 OPS over his last 10 games. He only owns one extra-base hit with four RBIs and two stolen bases over that span. On the season, Akiyama is hitting for a .250 average with a .302 slugging percentage and a .671 OPS against right-handed pitching. He also owns a .312 wOBA and a .052 ISO against righties this season.
Akiyama gets a matchup against Jonathan Stiever, who has only thrown in one game this season. I don’t expect him to continue to dominate, giving Akiyama the edge in this game. Akiyama is expected to lead off for the Cincinnati Reds tonight. His lack of power isn’t nearly as big of a concern on SuperDraft, where he boasts a 1.85x multiplier. He’ll also benefit from playing in a hitter-friendly stadium tonight, making him an outstanding tournament option.
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