Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Steven Brault
Brault has struggled in 2020, allowing 16 earned runs over 26.2 innings while striking out 24 batters. His 5.06 ERA is backed by a 5.24 xFIP and a 5.49 SIERA through 9 games (8 starts). He owns 19.7% strikeout and 7.8% swinging-strike rates, although he also boasts a 48% ground ball rate. Brault has struggled at home throughout his career, and that has been the case this season. He is a bit better against left-handed batters, though, recording a career 4.74 xFIP against them.
Brault gets a plus matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. They rank third on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat while also ranking as a below-average offense in terms of team wOBA. Brault is currently a +142 underdog in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving the Cardinals an implied team total of 4.8 runs tonight. There is sharp money on the Pittsburgh Pirates in this game, though, and it’s unlikely they’re an offense that is going to play at an elite level. Instead, it would suggest Brault could find success. There are a few very clear chalk options because of this slate only featuring six games, leaving up to get a bit weird in tournaments. Brault is extremely cheap and will help you fit the elite bats you need.
Jose Altuve
Altuve continues to struggle, posting a .250 average with a .250 slugging percentage and a .601 OPS over his last 10 games. He didn’t record any extra-base hits or RBIs in those games. Altuve has been better against right-handed pitching in 2020, recording a .243 average with a .342 slugging percentage and a .642 OPS. He also enters this game with a .284 wOBA and a .099 ISO against righties.
Altuve gets an elite matchup against Jordan Lyles, who has been one of the worst starting pitchers in the MLB this season. Lyles is allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .314 average with a .593 slugging percentage and a .397 wOBA in 2020. He’s also given up a .286/.455/.353 line on the road this season. Altuve is expected to hit second in the Houston Astros lineup tonight. He hasn’t been an elite option but his price tag reflects his recent struggles. It doesn’t reflect the elite matchup against one of my favorite pitchers to attack whenever he’s on the mound.
Kevin Pillar
Pillar has been struggling in recent games, as he’s hitting for a .229 average with a .257 slugging percentage and a .547 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns one extra-base hit, one RBI, and one stolen base. He boasts a .308 average with a .569 slugging percentage and a .926 OPS against left-handed pitching this season, though. He also possesses a .386 wOBA and a .262 ISO against lefties in 2020.
Pillar gets a matchup against Julio Urias, who has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .268 average with a .370 slugging percentage and a .310 wOBA. He’s also given up a .300/.440/.350 line on the road in 2020. Pillar is expected to hit fifth in the Colorado Rockies lineup and he may go overlooked on this slate. He comes with tremendous upside in Coors against a fly ball pitcher, though.
Michael Brantley
Brantley has recorded a .243 average with a .432 slugging percentage and a .714 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts five extra-base hits (one home run) and two RBIs over that span, as well. Brantley is hitting for a .333 average with a .548 slugging percentage and a .952 OPS against right-handed pitching on the season. He enters this game with a .406 wOBA and a .215 ISO against righties in 2020.
Brantley gets an elite matchup against Jordan Lyles, who’s road struggles have been noted in the Jose Altuve recommendation. Lyles has also allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .264 average with a .414 slugging percentage and a .337 wOBA this season. Brantley is expected to hit third in the Houston Astros lineup and he’s far too cheap on this slate. He makes an elite option in all leagues, specifically tournaments.
SuperDraft
Aaron Hicks (1.45x)
Hicks is only hitting for a .233 average with a .467 slugging percentage and a .932 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns three extra-base hits (two home runs), three RBIs, and one stolen base in those contests. Hicks owns a .210 average with a .410 slugging percentage and a .793 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. He also boasts a .351 wOBA and a .200 ISO against righties in 2020.
Hicks gets a great matchup against Chase Anderson, who is allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .333 average with a .667 slugging percentage and a .440 wOBA in 2020. Hicks is expected to hit third in the New York Yankees lineup, which has been playing at an elite level in recent games. He gets a 1.45x multiplier on SuperDraft, as well, adding to his upside. Hicks is an elite play in a plus matchup.
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